Major Hurricane Milton

[Amped]

 

[AccuChris]

New recon going through now just reported 975mb


.

[qg_omega]

RI

[BoulderWX]

And we’re off…

[Windspeed]

Keeping a close eye on these fixes as well. The TC models want Milton's eye to lose .5 to .8 degrees of latitude over the next 18 to 24 hours as it passes south of Isla Pérez. Granted, that's not much, but it could have implications downstream on the location of ENE to NE turn.

Edit: The exception is the HMON, which has a direct hit and landfall on Isla Pérez.

[hawkeye_wx]

New dropsonde says 979 mb w/ 13 kt wind.

[MANDA]

 

 

 

[MANDA]

Based on the data this evening I would not expect much if any changes with the 11:00 TPC package as far as max intensity or track.  Maybe they nudge the landfall location a smidge north. 

Certainly the initial intensity will be UP.

[Radtechwxman]

Impressive microwave pass

[hawkeye_wx]

Two separate dropsondes show a pressure drop of 1 mb in the last ten minutes, now 978 mb w/ 12 kt wind.

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Impressive microwave pass

Wow, he is taking off now - Looking great and stacked on stacked

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Impressive microwave pass

Well, that settles that...I was about 24 hours too late on RI.

[jrips27]

10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6
Location: 22.4°N 93.1°W
Moving: E at 7 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[Windspeed]

Well, that settles that...I was about 24 hours too late on RI.

Yeah, remote sensing and in situ recon data all point to Milton being in the initial stage of rapid intensification that will most like go uninterrupted barring any structural changes. Any call on lowest pressure? I could see a 40-50 mb drop occurring by tomorrow night. Perhaps we can't rule out an even lower drop before outer banding begins to intensify and influence the core. I'm going to say 928 mb is not unrealistic by tomorrow evening.

[CamSE-Wx]

00z Icon running decent bit north so far this run compared to the 18z

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that settles that...I was about 24 hours too late on RI.

Yeah, remote sensing and in situ recon data all point to Milton being in the initial stage of rapid intensification that will most like go uninterrupted barring any structural changes. Any call on lowest pressure? I could see a 40-50 mb drop occurring by tomorrow night. Perhaps we can't rule out an even lower drop before outer banding begins to intensify and influence the core. I'm going to say 928 mb is not unrealistic by tomorrow evening.

Yea...strong cat 4...I had 130mph max yesterday, but that will probably be too low. If this gets down to 928, then it will make cat 5 with how small it is...that is Andrew like.

[Radtechwxman]

Surprised nhc is being more conservative with top strength Milton reaches in Gulf esp given how it looks tonight. I think 150-155 is a good bet and likely higher if good organization remains next day or so while Milton remains in favorable low shear and high OHC. 

[hlcater]

 

That look combined with NOAA43's radar scans earlier and 11nmi RMW.... ooof. Expecting substantial strengthening tonight. Could wake up to a major.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that settles that...I was about 24 hours too late on RI.

Yeah, remote sensing and in situ recon data all point to Milton being in the initial stage of rapid intensification that will most like go uninterrupted barring any structural changes. Any call on lowest pressure? I could see a 40-50 mb drop occurring by tomorrow night. Perhaps we can't rule out an even lower drop before outer banding begins to intensify and influence the core. I'm going to say 928 mb is not unrealistic by tomorrow evening.

Given the structure, size, and extremely favorable environment ahead, I’ll guess it peaks around 160mph/919mb.

That is not my projected landfall intensity but it’s problematic because it’ll almost certainly trigger an ERC that expands the size of the hurricane—making both wind and surge risk worse.

[Windspeed]

 
That look combined with NOAA43's radar scans earlier and 11nmi RMW.... ooof. Expecting substantial strengthening tonight. Could wake up to a major.

Ahh...the dreaded shrimp.

[Amped]

Lets see if we finally get the recon pass with the 5mb pressure drop from the last one. So far it's only been 1-2mb between passes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Given the structure, size, and extremely favorable environment ahead, I’ll guess it peaks around 160mph/919mb.

That is not my projected landfall intensity but it’s problematic because it’ll almost certainly trigger an ERC that expands the size of the hurricane—making both wind and surge risk worse.

Yea....920s sounds about right.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea....920s sounds about right.

What is the lowest possible pressure in the gulf? I remember seeing information a while back that showed this. 

[cardinalland]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What is the lowest possible pressure in the gulf? I remember seeing information a while back that showed this. 

 

[Moderately Unstable]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What is the lowest possible pressure in the gulf? I remember seeing information a while back that showed this. 

Well, *on record* that would be hurricane Rita. At a comfortable 895 mb. We won't be going into that department here, but, I am on the Kool-Aid train that this does ratchet itself up a lot. I somewhat despise prognosticating specific mb intensities. Please allow me to completely ignore and undercut that by saying I think this will peak between 925-935 mb. 

[hlcater]

 

5 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

 

Keep in mind that core dynamics during RI and the atmospheric environment (ie atmospheric temps aloft) are also contributors to MPI, not just OHC.

[allgame830]

11 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

 

Thank you just exactly what I was looking for. 

[Windspeed]

 
Keep in mind that core dynamics during RI and the atmospheric environment (ie atmospheric temps aloft) are also contributors to MPI, not just OHC.

^ This x1000. As has been reiterated over the years, TCHP/OHC and their related maps are important for gauging MPI, but they're based on 26° isotherm depth and do not quantify upper atmospheric dynamics and storm motion for intensities. A slow-moving hurricane with average upper dynamics are aided greatly by depth of the 26°C isotherm. But immediate or near-to-surface temperature for fast moving systems are sufficient for an intense hurricane to avoid limitations of its own upwelling. Likewise, cooler than average upper tropospheric temperatures help to increase instability/atmospheric lift and lapse rates generated by slightly lower mean SSTs.

Simply put, 28-29°C shallow layer SSTs should be plenty enough octane for Milton to reach even Category 5 strength if its internal structure doesn't get in the way of itself. It will be moving too fast for upwelling to be an issue now. And even if you account for a lack of deep content just north of the Yucatán, atmospheric conditions should remain favorable as the hurricane is crossing the loop current. However, Milton should have peaked in intensity by then and most likely will already have completed its first EWRC.

[hlcater]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

^ This x1000. As has been reiterated over the years, TCHP/OHC and their related maps are important for gauging MPI, but they're based on 26° isotherm depth and do not quantify upper atmospheric dynamics and storm motion for intensities. A slow-moving hurricane with average upper dynamics are aided greatly by depth of the 26°C isotherm. But immediate or near-to-surface temperature for fast moving systems are sufficient for an intense hurricane to be avoid limitations of its own upwelling. Likewise, cooler than average upper tropospheric temperatures help to increase instability/atmospheric lift and lapse rates generated by slightly lower mean SSTs.

Simply put, 28-29°C shallow layer SSTs should be plenty enough octane for Milton to reach even Category 5 strength if its internal structure doesn't get in the way of itself. It will be moving too fast for upwelling to be an issue now. And even if you account for a lack of deep content just north of the Yucatán, atmospheric conditions should remain favorable as the hurricane is crossing the loop current. However, Milton should have peaked in intensity by then and most likely will already have completed its first EWRC.

To this note I really think the only big thing that will limit Milton *is* shallow shelf waters as it passes near/south of scorpion reef.

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon has found no pressure drop over the last 1 hr, 16 min..... still 977 mb.  This plane is now done.