Major Hurricane Milton

[SnowGoose69]

HAFS B looks as if it'll take a south jog this run, storm noticeably has expanding wind field as its approaching coast

[SnowGoose69]

No big change on 18Z Euro, directly into Tampa

[Windspeed]

HAFS B looks as if it'll take a south jog this run, storm noticeably has expanding wind field as its approaching coast

Rapid deepening with strong outer bands guarantees an EWRC. The wind field is modeled to expand by virtually every TC model due to the structural evolution of Milton in 48-60 hours. Too much time remains between RI and landfall for outer banding to not do its job. Also, upper dynamics will support favorable/strong lift and instability on the north side of the circulation for an intense band to form away from the core. I normally use caution to make bold predictions when it comes to TCs, but a secondary outer wall forming and an expanding windfield is nearly a certainty here. This occurs prior to shallow shelf. As such, the fear of enhanced storm surge in the southern semicircle into landfall.

[Moderately Unstable]

979 extrap on the recon. Last VDM was at 18:43. That places it at a slightly slower intensification rate since last recon. Something between 1.06-1.41 mb/hr average deepening rate depending on what the sounding data pulls up (eg 980-978). Based on current satellite, probably continued to deepen for a bit after last recon and has been a notch closer to steady state recently. Still, getting stronger. 

[BYG Jacob]

4 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

979 extrap on the recon. Last VDM was at 18:43. That places it at a slightly slower intensification rate since last recon. Something between 1.06-1.41 mb/hr average deepening rate depending on what the sounding data pulls up (eg 980-978). Based on current satellite, probably continued to deepen for a bit after last recon and has been a notch closer to steady state recently. Still, getting stronger. 

982 on the dropsonde. The only issue I can see are the highest rain rates are in a band outside the developing eyewall

[USCG RS]

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

storm noticeably has expanding wind field as its approaching coast

This, IMO, will be the larger potential issue and needs to be taken much more seriously than it currently is. 

[Moderately Unstable]

9 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

982 on the dropsonde. The only issue I can see are the highest rain rates are in a band outside the developing eyewall

Possible. NOAA3 just went through, so we will have 2 data points prior to the 8pm advisory. Would be nice to be able to see the radar on the plane!

 

Edit: 8pm nhc is at 981. So, slightly less than 1mb/hr deepening since the last recon. There's no big dry air issue on wv, probably just core dynamics. VDM shows eyewall is open NW-NE. That's probably sufficient. 

[TPAwx]

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HAFS B looks as if it'll take a south jog this run, storm noticeably has expanding wind field as its approaching coast

This run landfalls near Clearwater high 950s, Thursday morning.  Extreme surge scenario for TB.

HAFS-A similar landfall.  HMON near Crystal River.

[cptcatz]

27 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Exactly. But more importantly it doesn't matter the strength at landfall except for a very small area near the coast line. What matters is the total integrated kinetic energy (IKE). A category 4 storm 24 hours before landfall will still have the same (or larger!) hurricane force wind field and surge if it landfalls as category 4 or if it weakens to category 2 - the strength of the hurricane only is measured based on the maximum winds in the eyewall, not the total power of the storm. Helene was a massive storm with winds and rain extending far from its core. Milton is likely to be a smaller storm when it reaches peak strength, but if it weakens (which a lot of models indicate) it's doing so because the core is weakening, and the winds spreading outward. If it stays compact, it would have the worst impact over a fairly small area, but weakening actually broadens the area of impact from hurricane strength winds and thus wind-driven (rather than purely low pressure based) coastal storm surges, which could have an even worse impact on mostly enclosed bodies of water such as Tampa Bay where a storm surge can be driven up the bay by winds.

History has many examples of weakening storms that have caused massive damage from storm surge and winds - Katrina, Isabel, etc. Just because a storm is weakening does not mean that it has lost its teeth - that takes time, usually multiple days of shear to rip a storm completely apart.

I'll add that the weakening of the eyewall but expanding of the windfield, especially in this area of the Florida peninsula, is that it could cause more widespread power outages across the state.  Kinda like comparing Charley vs Irma.  Charley hit as a tiny 150 mph storm and caused catastrophic damage in basically a 10-mile wide swath, but not basically no impacts outside that swath.  Whereas Irma hit the peninsula as a massive 115 mph storm but caused 7.7 million customers to lose power, equating to 73% of the state.  So if Milton loses its punch in the eye but expands its tropical storm force windfield causing more widespread power outages in the metros of the Florida peninsula, it's kind of a wash.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'll add that the weakening of the eyewall but expanding of the windfield, especially in this area of the Florida peninsula, is that it could cause more widespread power outages across the state.  Kinda like comparing Charley vs Irma.  Charley hit as a tiny 150 mph storm and caused catastrophic damage in basically a 10-mile wide swath, but not basically no impacts outside that swath.  Whereas Irma hit the peninsula as a massive 115 mph storm but caused 7.7 million customers to lose power, equating to 73% of the state.  So if Milton loses its punch in the eye but expands its tropical storm force windfield causing more widespread power outages in the metros of the Florida peninsula, it's kind of a wash.

All it really takes to cause massive outages and many trees and large branches to fall are mid to higher end TS winds. That’s what we had here in Savannah. There were a couple of gusts to minimal hurr strength, but the highest sustained were in the 50s though it admittedly seemed like a hurricane. That’s all it took to give us a big mess. Many don’t realize the power of TS winds.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

This, IMO, will be the larger potential issue and needs to be taken much more seriously than it currently is. 

And even if the center goes S of Tampa, as we all know from Ian it’s still very heavily populated real estate all the way to Marco Island. Would still be devastating for perhaps hundreds of thousands and many who are still rebuilding post-Ian. The east coast of FL might also be impacted pretty bad-Irma was bad for the whole peninsula even though it tracked into the Gulf and weakened significantly from peak. 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

All it really takes to cause massive outages and many trees and large branches to fall are mid to higher end TS winds. That’s what we had here in Savannah. There were a couple of gusts to minimal hurr strength, but the highest sustained were in the 50s though it admittedly seemed like a hurricane. That’s all it took to give us a big mess. Many don’t realize the power of TS winds.

This ∆

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

All it really takes to cause massive outages and many trees and large branches to fall are mid to higher end TS winds. That’s what we had here in Savannah. There were a couple of gusts to minimal hurr strength, but the highest sustained were in the 50s though it admittedly seemed like a hurricane. That’s all it took to give us a big mess. Many don’t realize the power of TS winds.

Yep, I’ve seen that time and again in some of our stronger Nor’easters up here and with storms like Irene 2011 where we gusted to 70 or so and Sandy 2012 where we had frequent 85-90 mph gusts. The amount of rain also matters as it loosens the soil. 

[andyhb]

One thing that would be unideal would be Milton impacting the northern coast of the Yucatan from the west, which would be an extremely rare event and would put Merida (the largest city in the state) and several resort towns at high risk.

[Normandy]

6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

One thing that would be unideal would be Milton impacting the northern coast of the Yucatan from the west, which would be an extremely rare event and would put Merida (the largest city in the state) and several resort towns at high risk.

Yea the southern eyewall of an east moving cat 5 scraping the coast would def be unusual for them.  Any direct interaction with the Yucatán though likely removes major hurricane possibilities for Florida considering the shear present and movement over the cold pool north of the Yucatán coast.  Something to watch for sure 

[beanskip]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And even if the center goes S of Tampa, as we all know from Ian it’s still very heavily populated real estate all the way to Marco Island. Would still be devastating for perhaps hundreds of thousands and many who are still rebuilding post-Ian. The east coast of FL might also be impacted pretty bad-Irma was bad for the whole peninsula even though it tracked into the Gulf and weakened significantly from peak. 

This is a good point -- have heard a lot of people pooh pooh an other-than-Tampa landfall, but Sarasota, Bradenton, Venice, Englewood, Ft. Myers, etc have plenty of population. 

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And even if the center goes S of Tampa, as we all know from Ian it’s still very heavily populated real estate all the way to Marco Island. Would still be devastating for perhaps hundreds of thousands and many who are still rebuilding post-Ian. The east coast of FL might also be impacted pretty bad-Irma was bad for the whole peninsula even though it tracked into the Gulf and weakened significantly from peak. 

Yes but you'd go from catastrophic to pretty bad in terms of impact. 

Even a weakening storm that hits just north of TB would bring significant surge into the bay. 

[Floydbuster]

I am not that impressed with Milton tonight. It doesn't seem to be exhausting outflow the way I would like to see for significant overnight intensification. The interaction with the frontal system in the eastern Gulf is also giving it a strange look on satellite. It almost looks like Milton is being undercut or squashed. Anyone else see this?

 

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I am not that impressed with Milton tonight. It doesn't seem to be exhausting outflow the way I would like to see for significant overnight intensification. The interaction with the frontal system in the eastern Gulf is also giving it a strange look on satellite. It almost looks like Milton is being undercut or squashed. Anyone else see this?

 

Looks like a steadily/rapidly intensifying hurricane to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I am not that impressed with Milton tonight. It doesn't seem to be exhausting outflow the way I would like to see for significant overnight intensification. The interaction with the frontal system in the eastern Gulf is also giving it a strange look on satellite. It almost looks like Milton is being undercut or squashed. Anyone else see this?

 

The most favorable period should be tomorrow night into Tuesday.

[WxWatcher007]

@Moderately Unstable

[Windspeed]

Thanks. Lol, got me by a few seconds.

[Floydbuster]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The most favorable period should be tomorrow night into Tuesday.

It does seem to be well organized right around the bursting CDO. I just notice a lot of stable looking air to the north. 

[AccuChris]

Latest recon 20 mins ago found 977mb


.

[Windspeed]

I thought there was active weather instrumentation maintained on Isla Pérez north of the Yucatán for Mexico, and data has been posted before, but I can not seem to find access to their data obs right now. Does anyone know where that is?

[CamSE-Wx]

[hawkeye_wx]

The newest dropsonde says 980 mb.

[cptcatz]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I thought there was active weather instrumentation maintained on Isla Pérez north of the Yucatán for Mexico, and data has been posted before, but I can not seem to find access to their data obs right now. Does anyone know where that is?

Cancun has a radar which may pick up the eye depending on how close it gets

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3

[Nibor]

Big convective blow up in the past hour or so.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The west coast of Florida just can't catch a break the past 3 years with Ian, Idalia, Helene and now Milton. Though Idalia was definitely a lot weaker than people originally thought at landfall at least. I wouldn't bank on any sure intensity ideas until we're a day or two from landfall. Hurricane intensity is the hardest part of forecasting a hurricane.