Major Hurricane Milton

[GaWx]

From new NHC discussion: slight S track adjustment, which makes sense because recon found Milton a half of a degree further S than the 5AM EDT track (22.5 vs 23.0). The new (11AM) track center point is now a little S of Tampa vs right at Tampa on the 5AM track:

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.  
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been 
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new 
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.4N  94.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 22.2N  92.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.5N  88.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 24.7N  86.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[GaWx]

Interestingly, the 12Z Icon is a bit further N and about the furthest N of any Icon yet with it close to Sarasota vs recent runs near Port Charlotte.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

From new NHC discussion: slight S track adjustment, which makes sense because recon found Milton a half of a degree further S than the 5AM EDT track (22.5 vs 23.0). The new (11AM) track center point is now a little S of Tampa vs right at Tampa on the 5AM track:

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.  
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been 
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new 
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.4N  94.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 22.2N  92.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.5N  88.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 24.7N  86.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

Major at 90W. Stepping up that intensity forecast in a hurry

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Major at 90W. Stepping up that intensity forecast in a hurry

Not surprised, especially given the ramp up in intensity overnight into this morning. A lot of the hurricane models have this presumably at cat 5 pressure in the central gulf before an ERC. 

[EWR757]

Quite a bit of uncertainty and it’s 3-4 days prior to landfall.   A lot of things are possible as of now.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Interestingly, the 12Z Icon is a bit further N and about the furthest N of any Icon yet with it close to Sarasota vs recent runs near Port Charlotte.

The ICON was remarkably good with the track of Helene, it was overall a bit too far SE at this range but in the final 72 was close

[jlewis1111]

The GFS nailed down Helene a week out with a pressure of 938 and hitting a few miles west of where it actually hit. Not bad a week out. Euro had barely anything. Other models were showing wind sheer and ripping it apart before landfall. Lets see if the GFS scores again as once again It sniffed Milton out first too and has been zero in on Tampa area unfortunately. 

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

The GFS nailed down Helene a week out with a pressure of 938 and hitting a few miles west of where it actually hit. Not bad a week out. Euro had barely anything. Other models were showing wind sheer and ripping it apart before landfall. Lets see if the GFS scores again as once again It sniffed Milton out first too and has been zero in on Tampa area unfortunately. 

icon and euro intensity models cannot be trusted since they failed with helene so badly..

[hawkeye_wx]

The visible loop looks very good.  A nice ring of bubbly convection continues to surround the center.  The next recon is on its way and should be in the eye in a couple hours.

We need a moderator to clean out some of the garbage posts polluting this topic this morning.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

icon and euro intensity models cannot be trusted since they failed with helene so badly..

Then which should we trust ?

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ICON was remarkably good with the track of Helene, it was overall a bit too far SE at this range but in the final 72 was close

Thanks. And Icon was 2nd best with Ian with much further SE progs than GFS/CMC and further SE than Euro. UKMET was best with Ian with its almost perfect much further SE progs. So, I’ll be following upcoming runs of UK and Icon very closely needless to say.

*Corrected

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

icon and euro intensity models cannot be trusted since they failed with helene so badly..

Icon, Euro, UK, and other globals are much better for track than intensity although following their TREND for intensity is quite worthwhile. Hurricane models are generally better for absolute intensity although they tend to be too strong as was the case for Helene. They’re often 20-40 mb too strong.

[MLynnWx]

8 minutes ago, wkd said:

I really wish you lived in the Tampa or Ft. Meyer area. Unfortunately you live in my state. 

Yeah. My Philly raised friend lives in St Pete. She is prepping for the storm today to be ready to be at the NICU in Tampa for the storm. She would probably let him ride out the storm at her place. You know, so he can experience the ease. 

[TPAwx]

GFS op run coming in slightly south and deeper thru 48h.

[Hotair]

Recently Milton has moved very little. Nearly stationary. I am hoping this stalling will enable dry air to form along its path to land and take the edge off the RI that will certainly occur in the next 24 hours as it crosses the bath waters and low shear environment currently in its path 

[TPAwx]

GFS heading for landfall north of TB, around Crystal River Wednesday evening.  958.

[hawkeye_wx]

The 12z gfs track is interesting.  Initially, it is farther south, close to the Yucatan like the latest Euro.  However, then it doesn't just turn northeast, but north-northeast, and ends up farther north than previous runs.

[LeesburgWx]

12z GFS is north of Tampa and a brutal track for storm surge

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z gfs track is interesting.  Initially, it is farther south, close to the Yucatan like the latest Euro.  However, then it doesn't just turn northeast, but north-northeast, and ends up farther north than previous runs.

Horrible angle and LF location for TB verbatim on that run. Going to be a long couple of days

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z gfs track is interesting.  Initially, it is farther south, close to the Yucatan like the latest Euro.  However, then it doesn't just turn northeast, but north-northeast, and ends up farther north than previous runs.

Indeed. Landfalls way up only a little SE of Cedar Key! Significantly N of last 2 GFS runs.

[SnoSki14]

GFS isn't something FL would handle with ease and it's been very consistent with that near to north of TB track. 

Now that's something to worry about because the surge would be horrendous 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. Landfalls way up at Cedar Key! Significantly N of last 2 GFS runs.

I don’t really think it’s quite that north but the turn NNE would maximize surge in Tampa Bay. A look like that would put 10-15ft of surge into the bay. 

[MJO812]

[Brasiluvsnow]

I have not read thru the thread but I have a question = How often has a Hurricane that has affected Florida originated from the Gulf don't they usually come up from the southern Gulf or loop around after they were initially heading west ? A hurricane starting directly from the southwestern Gulf, like Milton did, and heading due east into Florida's west coast is definitely IMO not common but has THIS ever happened in the past ? Thanks for any replies

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I don’t really think it’s quite that north but the turn NNE would maximize surge in Tampa Bay. A look like that would put 10-15ft of surge into the bay. 

Thanks. Yeah, I on a closer look just had noticed it landfalls a little SE of Cedar Key as opposed to right at CK. Thus I revised that post. But it is a significant shift N, regardless. Yes, this would be a very bad track for TB.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I have not read thru the thread but I have a question = How often has a Hurricane that has affected Florida originated from the Gulf don't they usually come up from the southern Gulf or loop around after they were initially heading west ? A hurricane starting directly from the southwestern Gulf, like Milton did, and heading due east into Florida's west coast is definitely IMO not common but has THIS ever happened in the past ? Thanks for any replies

18 west to east moving canes across the gulf originating in the bay of Campeche I believe since 1885, and the only true track like the nhc projection was pre 1900. 

[Hotair]

Both ICON and GFS 12z runs are terrible news for TB as they shift the storm track back toward worst case scenario.  Icon makes LF around Bradenton and GFS around Crystal River 

[purduewx80]

[CCHurricane]

6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I have not read thru the thread but I have a question = How often has a Hurricane that has affected Florida originated from the Gulf don't they usually come up from the southern Gulf or loop around after they were initially heading west ? A hurricane starting directly from the southwestern Gulf, like Milton did, and heading due east into Florida's west coast is definitely IMO not common but has THIS ever happened in the past ? Thanks for any replies

While it's happened before, historically its very infrequent for the Tampa Bay area.

Looks like the last major hurricane (> Cat 3) to impact the Tampa region, with a west to east or southwest to northeast track, was back in 1921.

 

[eyewall]

I do not like that GFS run at all for Tampa and of course it will start making people nervous who were hit by Helene.