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Major Hurricane Milton


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Another Flash Flood Emergency issued by the NWS for potentially catastrophic flooding for the I-4 corridor NE of Tampa into the center of the state from 8-12", so far, and more on the way.  

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1011 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LAKELAND, WINTER HAVEN, WESLEY CHAPEL...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay Ruskin has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern Polk County in central Florida...
  Southeastern Sumter County in central Florida...
  Southwestern Hernando County in west central Florida...
  Northern Hillsborough County in west central Florida...
  Pasco County in west central Florida...
  Pinellas County in west central Florida...

* Until 400 AM EDT.

* At 1011 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 8 and 12 inches of rain
  have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lakeland, Winter Haven, Wesley
  Chapel. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER
  GROUND NOW!

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
           HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of
           low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Tampa, Spring Hill, Lakeland, Plant City, Winter Haven, Haines
  City, Bartow, New Port Richey, Lake Wales, Auburndale,
  Zephyrhills, Dade City, Brandon, Lutz, Fish Hawk, Hudson, Holiday,
  St. Leo, Zephyrhills South and Zephyrhills North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

 

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31 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Believe there’s some nuance to this data based on this gauge location. Looks to be exposed to a north wind. The three other Tampa Bay gauges all are running many feet BELOW normal, as the ocean has evacuated towards Tampa Bay’s mouth.

Yeah I could see that.   I noticed that the other gauges were still low, but just figured it was because the new surge hadn't reached them yet.

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Not quite what they are getting in Tampa city limits but just lost power finally here and it’s been non stop rain and wind for a while now. Tree debris everywhere and standing water in the backyard. I know others have it much worse but really curious what it all looks like when the sun comes up.


.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

St. Pete gusting to 100 on that last ob.

Once again strong winds occurring well after landfall.  Going to warn my family in Palm Bay on the east coast of Florida (they thought the tornadoes were the end of it).

 

526ED705-0D8E-4BDA-BCE6-91D390390C1A.jpeg

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The modeling of this as ultimately pretty good. Most of them did an amazing job depicting the degradation of the storm that was mainly north with the heavy rain. Pressures at LF were pretty on target too.

 

The intensity of the northern eyewall has been surprising. I wouldn’t have expected the 100mph gust reaching up to st Pete and near Tampa with a landfall south of Sarasota. I guess that is a function of the eye expanding. The rainfall also for a fast moving storm has been impressive.

 

This doesn’t even take into account the truly unprecedented tornado outbreak that made south Florida look like Oklahoma.

 

Really a truly interesting storm to watch unfold. 

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

There's still a huge waterspout outbreak going on off Floridas east coast.

I’d imagine this tornado outbreak is one that will be studied for a long time. Not sure we’ve seen anything like this with a land falling storm 

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’d imagine this tornado outbreak is one that will be studied for a long time. Not sure we’ve seen anything like this with a land falling storm 

If there was land east of Florida this would be the biggest tornado outbreak numbers wise in US history.  The outbreak never stopped it just moved offshore

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2 minutes ago, Normandy said:

If there was land east of Florida this would be the biggest tornado outbreak numbers wise in US history.  The outbreak never stopped it just moved offshore

Yeah, didn’t think of that. It has to be unprecedented that basically an entire swath of a state was under a tornado warning today. 

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Co worker in st Petersburg just replied and said there are branches down and a lot of street flooding but at least at his location not too much damage. They held power until well after it made landfall. Sounds like back half was the worst for them. Conditions Improving at his location 

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

Yeah, didn’t think of that. It has to be unprecedented that basically an entire swath of a state was under a tornado warning today. 

And it appears there were multiple EF2 or 3 wedge type tornadoes. Also extremely rare in hurricanes. 

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Yeah, didn’t think of that. It has to be unprecedented that basically an entire swath of a state was under a tornado warning today. 

Brother I was texting my family in Palm Bay.  I literally had to tell them shelter in place because there were so many warnings and the cells were training I couldn’t even tell them where it was coming from.  The violent fucker that went through Vero beach just missed them to the east.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And it appears there were multiple EF2 or 3 wedge type tornadoes. Also extremely rare in hurricanes. 

I said it early, and I can’t remember the damn name, it reminded me of the remnants of a storm that dropped a bunch of wedge tornadoes in EasterN PA and NJ a few years back. 
 

was it Irma? 
 

definitely not Irma 

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

I said it early, and I can’t remember the damn name, it reminded me of the remnants of a storm that dropped a bunch of wedge tornadoes in EasterN PA and NJ a few years back. 
 

was it Irma? 

May have been Ida. That was really bad rain wise for my area, eastern PA and NJ, and S NJ I remember there being a tornado outbreak south of the track. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

May have been Ida. That was really bad rain wise for my area, eastern PA and NJ, and S NJ I remember there being a tornado outbreak south of the track. 

It was. 36 tornadoes in a place that usually doesn’t get them. 

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7 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Did any station verify 120mph sustained winds?  No buoys did.

 

Is this a common theme with most storms?

Part of the problem is that all the buoys that were near they eye were all out of commission.  :-(

 

image.png.7511c9954b958db84e36b7f0486cc7f4.png

 

Closet one was Venice, which looked like this:

 

5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure at VENF1

 

Give that though - one would have thought that Venice would have registered a lot more than 62 mph sustained, given that it was pretty much at the eye wall.   Only thing I can figure is that it's because these are so close to the water or land - the wind levels are lower due to surface friction.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

These winds are felt offshore where there is no friction. Maybe a very small area right on the beach did. 

Thanks.  I've always wondered about this.  I understand the philosophy and how the scientific means of measurement and classification process goes, but it seems imperfect with regard to how the public may perceive it.   Im also aware of plenty of storms that have verified. Some have greatly exceeded, leading to re-classification.  

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