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Major Hurricane Milton


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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:
I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak. 

As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed.

 

I think the big saving grace is how early it's coming in.  Highest tide isn't until 6am tomorrow.   Right now the tides are fairly low, so the surge effects will be lessened quite a bit.

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Extreme Wind Warning
FLC057-081-103-100130-
/O.NEW.KTBW.EW.W.0001.241009T2236Z-241010T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
636 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Manatee County in west central Florida...
  Pinellas County in west central Florida...
  Hillsborough County in west central Florida...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 635 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
  extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Milton,
  were moving onshore along a line extending from 6 miles southwest
  of South Bradenton to 25 miles southwest of Anna Maria to 52 miles
  southwest of Saint Armands Key, moving northeast at 30 mph. THIS
  IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

&&
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2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

I think the big saving grace is how early it's coming in.  Highest tide isn't until 6am tomorrow.   Right now the tides are fairly low, so the surge effects will be lessened quite a bit.

Dr Knabb been explaining on TWC today that surge effects will actually peak well after landfall. Forecast is for surge to peak around high-tide as the winds shift back around from the west.

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Center looks to come right into the bay

 

The eastern eyewall is already east of the mouth of Tampa Bay longitude wise. As someone said above, this looks to make landfall between Sarasota and Venice in the next hour or so.

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NWS Tampa has issued an Extreme Wind Warning.

Center will be coming onshore next 60-90 min. between Sarasota and Osprey.  Tampa area will be affected by northern eyewall which is very robust. 

All 3 counties are north of the expected landfall point and will be affected by northern eyewall.

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Screenshot 2024-10-09 at 6.59.05 PM.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Consistent high end tropical storm force/low end hurricane force wind gusts in Sarasota.

Still very limited surge, nothing of note.

I would have to imagine that the northern portion of the eye wall getting close to moving in towards Sarasota is going to be nasty 

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