WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 6 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: 931mb / 145mph Cat 4....but ugh the tornadoes!! Could this be the bigger story? 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: No, it’ll almost certainly be the surge. It’s almost always the most devastating part of a hurricane of this magnitude. Tornadoes are serious, but just the prelude to the worst unfortunately. I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, Richie said: Is this the 2nd tornado in St Lucie county today? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, GaWx said: Is this the 2nd tornado in St Lucie county today? There have been more than two. But this one is the largest as far as I'm aware. An EF2/EF3 in South Florida is as extreme as I can remember. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Unless Milton tugs due north in the next few hours the worst case surge scenario is off the table for Tampa. From 10-15 to 9-12 and now 6-9. High winds from the northern eyewall will do a number on the oaks and tree canopy. Lots of roofs and structural damage. Flash flooding from the heavy rainfall. Extended power outages. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The main rainband looks like it will pass directly over Tampa. Models were showing 10"-15" rainfall totals in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 23 minutes ago, Warwick WX said: Yeah if debris is going that high, who knows how far laterally toward your friend it can be tossed? Nevermind if the funnel expands... I was told long time ago debris travels 5X to 10X lateral distance from the vertical height it achieves so if almost 4 miles high then the debris comes down 20 to up to 40 miles away 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Charlotte Harbor/Punta Gorda/Venice might get the worst surge with this latest east jog if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak. As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This tornadic storm will be near... Port Saint Lucie, Walton, and Stuart around 530 PM EDT. Fort Pierce, Saint Lucie Nuclear Power Plant, and White City around 540 PM EDT. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Winds are picking up here in Gulfport. This is my front yard cam: https://thegabber.com/gulfport-49th-street-south-web-cam/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Sure looks like that forecast bend to the right is occurring. If it holds, it spares Tampa from the worst surge effects but puts them square in the firehose. The overland flooding still do a lot of damage in that area. Starting to see water rises at Venice and Naples. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 https://x.com/jntblake0812/status/ jesus 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 47 minutes ago, bobbutts said: that is a few blocks from the tdwr site! Crazy detail Good find! Here is the non-smoothed image. Very cool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Conditions slowly, but steadily increasing here in Cortez.Getting low end tropical storm force wind gusts, with a slow water rise over the past hour to hour and a half.Stepping south to Sarasota now. Getting mid to upper tropical storm force wind gusts at times now, resulting in some scattered tree damage. Water rise at Cortez was still slow. Scattered road and land flooding from the heavy rainfall.Just passed a large fire near Bayshore Gardens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Probably right around the time the eye comes ashore is when the very fast water rises will start. That’s when winds will switch to W, be aided by the possible sting jet and push the surge onshore. So maybe 8-9pm. Wind direction is still not really onshore south of the eye. Looks like the worst surge will be around the Venice area south to Cape Coral. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Probably right around the time the eye comes ashore is when the very fast water rises will start. That’s when winds will switch to W, be aided by the possible sting jet and push the surge onshore. So maybe 8-9pm. Wind direction is still not really onshore south of the eye. Looks like the worst surge will be around the Venice area south to Cape Coral. Punta Gorda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak. As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed. Yeah…I know. Just wanted to be…hopeful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Winds increasing now along the coast with Venice airport gusting to 68 mph (with multiple other ASOS sites near St Petersburg now gusting north of 60 mph). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Punta Gorda For sure, the water pushed into Charlotte Harbor and up the inlets will be a big problem. And looks like it’s headed into high tide from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Be cautious of idiots reposting tornado videos on SM from old tornado outbreaks. I just got fooled myself. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looks like landfall next 2-3 hours between Sarasota and Osprey Florida. Tampa will be spared the worst of the surge. Bad enough for sure but not the catastrophic 10-15' that was feared. Those numbers could be realized further down the coast to the south of landfall point down to about Boca Grande and Sanibel. Someone in that swath of coastline could see a 10-15" surge. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This is an incredible number of tornado warnings for these areas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 25 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: https://x.com/jntblake0812/status/ jesus Wow, that is something you would expect to see in the Midwest, not southern Fla. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Stepping south to Sarasota now. Getting mid to upper tropical storm force wind gusts at times now, resulting in some scattered tree damage. Water rise at Cortez was still slow. Scattered road and land flooding from the heavy rainfall.Just passed a large fire near Bayshore Gardens.Made it to Sarasota.Water levels are a bit elevated, but not enough for much flooding along the shore. Winds are still consistently gusting to mid to high level tropical storm force. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looks like the eye is coming ashore at Sarasota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Recon pass just now still shows a formidable storm. Pressure held fairly steady from the previous mission (in the mid to high 940s) with flight level winds of 110 knots. Edit: Dropsonde supports 952 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, lee59 said: Looks like the eye is coming ashore at Sarasota. Tampa dodged a major bullet if that track confirms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Made it to Sarasota. Water levels are a bit elevated, but not enough for much flooding along the shore. Winds are still consistently gusting to mid to high level tropical storm force. The worst surge is usually a fair deal south and east of the center (and people sometimes forget to account for the size of the eye in that equation) and for Milton will probably be from Venice to Port Charlotte. Though we'll see what happens in Sarasota once the wind shifts direction. On a related note, Sarasota airport recorded its first hurricane force gust a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: Tampa dodged a major bullet if that track confirms. Torrential rains and fresh water flooding may be the big story in the Tampa area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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