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Major Hurricane Milton


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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My friend is still chasing it (from the behind) he says its massive. I told him to consider backing off it. 

Yeah if debris is going that high, who knows how far laterally toward your friend it can be tossed?  Nevermind if the funnel expands...

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The HAFS models have been excellent simulating the interaction with front, trough, mid-to-upper jet, and its transitioning evolution with these features. Milton's current structure at this point just prior to landfall is very similar to their simulated structures for several days runs.

Now we watch for the SLP enhanced surge aided by the expanding windfield. We also watch for Milton's southern circulation to be aided by the ST jet and potential sting jet driven westerly winds, which may enhance low-level winds in shoving the surge on the shelf inland.

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Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased dramatically to 78 TJ.

For point of comparison using official NHC advisories just prior to landfall...

Hurricane Charley 2004 was 12 TJ.

Hurricane Helene 2024 was 100 TJ.

Hurricane Katrina 2005 was 120 TJ.

Superstorm Sandy 2012 was 330 TJ.

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19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Primary impacts for Tampa will likely be wind driven damage and flooding from excessive rainfall.  Trees down on houses, extended power outages.  Surge expectations are trending downward.

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Just now, TPAwx said:

Primary impacts for Tampa will likely be wind driven damage and flooding from excessive rainfall.  Trees down on houses, extended power outages.  Surge expectations are trending downward.

Agreed, however those impacts will be quite bad regardless. 

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased dramatically to 78 TJ.

For point of comparison using official NHC advisories just prior to landfall...

Hurricane Charley 2004 was 12 TJ.

Hurricane Katrina 2005 was 120 TJ.

Superstorm Sandy 2012 was 330 TJ.

I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for?

 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't see this defined but apologies if already answered: What does IKE and TJ stand for?

Integrated Kinetic Energy in TeraJoules

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