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Major Hurricane Milton


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I'm not so sure it's 100% fair to say its deviating or evolving differently than modeled. There are a ton of different factors to consider in these situations (this type of storm). You have to consider the fact that you're dealing with a feature (eye) which is generally small and then factor in model resolution. Not too mention this underwent two ERCs with each altering the structure, particularly the second ERC and then you also have the shear factor disrupting the structure. Much of the processes we are watching unfold today are extremely difficult, if not impossible to accurately model. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm not so sure it's 100% fair to say its deviating or evolving differently than modeled. There are a ton of different factors to consider in these situations (this type of storm). You have to consider the fact that you're dealing with a feature (eye) which is generally small and then factor in model resolution. Not too mention this underwent two ERCs with each altering the structure, particularly the second ERC and then you also have the shear factor disrupting the structure. Much of the processes we are watching unfold today are extremely difficult, if not impossible to accurately model. 

Modeling didn't do a bad job.  The tornado threat was overlooked by a lot of people who were distracted with things like ERCs, Recon passes, ADT numbers, and nitpicking every run of every model. 

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Tampa appears be pulling this one in. Not a lot of time for it to deviate at this point. Overall this has been pretty well modeled for several days 
The NHC practically begs people to not pay any attention to plots of the center line of the cone, yet minute changes in the center line are treated like gospel.

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The NHC practically begs people to not pay any attention to plots of the center line of the cone, yet minute changes in the center line are treated like gospel.

To be fair, the eye's landfall matters greatly for the impacts on Tampa Bay.

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To be fair, the eye's landfall matters greatly for the impacts on Tampa Bay.
Point well taken with respect to top end surge potential, but it would've needed to be a much larger shift to spare substantial impacts overall to the metro.




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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

image.png.a39edb203da7f9d2099a5da7e505f73c.png

 

17,000+ Scorpion Stock Photos, Pictures & Royalty-Free ...

Sting jet impacts are certainly on the table here if enough dry air interacts with the core. I am quietly watching that possibility. This could bring wind impacts further inland. Things have to be just right (wrong?) though.

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