Chicago Storm Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Conditions slowly, but steadily increasing here in Cortez.Getting low end tropical storm force wind gusts, with a slow water rise over the past hour to hour and a half. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 You can see here the path it has been taking and the direction it would need to go to landfall where the center of the cone would be. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looking like may be as early as a 7-8PM landfall! Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, GaWx said: Looking like as early as a 7-8PM landfall! Opinions? Yeah, it looks to be 3 or 4 hours from making landfall judging by its current speed and heading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Looking like may be as early as a 7-8PM landfall! Opinions? 8PM is accurate IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: How is it deviating from a forecast while remaining within the cone? I thought the idea explicitly was to not pay attention to the center line, hence removing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The north wobble might be starting to correct itself, it's back on course towards Bradenton/ Longboat key. Pretty much the consensus over the last couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The north wobble might be starting to correct itself, it's back on course towards Bradenton/ Longboat key. Pretty much the consensus over the last couple days. Radar is also trying to wrap rain/convection around the center last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I'm not so sure it's 100% fair to say its deviating or evolving differently than modeled. There are a ton of different factors to consider in these situations (this type of storm). You have to consider the fact that you're dealing with a feature (eye) which is generally small and then factor in model resolution. Not too mention this underwent two ERCs with each altering the structure, particularly the second ERC and then you also have the shear factor disrupting the structure. Much of the processes we are watching unfold today are extremely difficult, if not impossible to accurately model. 7 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Latest recon fix has the pressure down 1mb and actually more of a northerly heading vs previous fixes. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tampa is going to get whats left of the eyewall that seems almost assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, weatherwiz said: I'm not so sure it's 100% fair to say its deviating or evolving differently than modeled. There are a ton of different factors to consider in these situations (this type of storm). You have to consider the fact that you're dealing with a feature (eye) which is generally small and then factor in model resolution. Not too mention this underwent two ERCs with each altering the structure, particularly the second ERC and then you also have the shear factor disrupting the structure. Much of the processes we are watching unfold today are extremely difficult, if not impossible to accurately model. Modeling didn't do a bad job. The tornado threat was overlooked by a lot of people who were distracted with things like ERCs, Recon passes, ADT numbers, and nitpicking every run of every model. 2 2 1 1 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tampa appears be pulling this one in. Not a lot of time for it to deviate at this point. Overall this has been pretty well modeled for several days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Friend down in Florida chasing the two tornado warned cells west of PBI. Just told me he sees rotation...might be one on the ground. Hoping to get some video from him. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tampa appears be pulling this one in. Not a lot of time for it to deviate at this point. Overall this has been pretty well modeled for several days The NHC practically begs people to not pay any attention to plots of the center line of the cone, yet minute changes in the center line are treated like gospel.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Appears to be headed more E the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The NHC practically begs people to not pay any attention to plots of the center line of the cone, yet minute changes in the center line are treated like gospel. To be fair, the eye's landfall matters greatly for the impacts on Tampa Bay. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 radar seeing 128mph at a few thousand feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Holy shit from my friend. Told him to get to nws 16 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 To be fair, the eye's landfall matters greatly for the impacts on Tampa Bay.Point well taken with respect to top end surge potential, but it would've needed to be a much larger shift to spare substantial impacts overall to the metro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Sting jet impacts are certainly on the table here if enough dry air interacts with the core. I am quietly watching that possibility. This could bring wind impacts further inland. Things have to be just right (wrong?) though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 small supercell with tornado warning by West Palm Beach area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Naples gauge about to go into Moderate flooding 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 There is a decent debris signature west of Tradition & PSL for the observed warning. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Big cone tornado in progress near Wellington FL. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Holy shit from my friend. Told him to get to nws This is the one directly West of Boynton Beach correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lfunk11 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Fort Myers Beach https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TTrwuQ-luY Naples https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfBG8vB9Jws 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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