SluggerWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 IR presentation is looking better with more lightning in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, SluggerWx said: IR presentation is looking better with more lightning in the eye. On radar the eye looks to be closing off and getting more circular https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-6-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We're watching on AWIPS at NWS Chicago and our educated guess has been the Anna Maria Island to Longboat Key corridor, seems like it would pass north of downtown Sarasota based on current radar extrapolation. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk That jives with my estimate based on a 3 hour averaged motion from radar. Will have to see if the forecasted eastward turn occurs before or after landfall as that could shift it south. I have no idea how well the HRRR usually performs with near term TC tracks, but the 18z run takes the center right to the mouth of Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornado warning now for Southeastern Orange County and Northeastern Osceola County. Current trajectory should take it very close to KMCO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Damn this better make that hook E in a few hours, if it does not its going into St Pete 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Eyewall definitely has improved on radar. Less open and looks like the concentric eyewalls have combined or close to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 tornado on the ground, near Kenansville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonumentalNole Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm guessing this comes in around 115 mph. Water still the biggest threat, although these twisters are causing a lot of damage. IMO there are too many people writing off this thing closing off the eyewall and restrengthening a bit before landfall. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 10 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Eyewall definitely has improved on radar. Less open and looks like the concentric eyewalls have combined or close to. How much of this is real vs the center moving closer into radar views? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 10 minutes ago, Chinook said: tornado on the ground, near Kenansville This is headed towards Orlando International Airport, east Orlando, and Oviedo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 14 minutes ago, klw said: On radar the eye looks to be closing off and getting more circular https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-6-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Yeah I noticed that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, wxeyeNH said: How much of this is real vs the center moving closer into radar views? Maybe a little of both. But IR appearance is improving and lightning has upticked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Probably just a wobble, but more likely to be closer to Bradenton at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Probably just a wobble, but more likely to be closer to Bradenton at landfall. I’m with goose, this would have to take a ENE hook from its current heading in my eyes to not go over Anna Maria or Tierra Verde into the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 WFLA very concerned about a northward jog. They're not sure if it's a wobble or a move to the north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Maybe a little of both. But IR appearance is improving and lightning has upticked. IR loop on Tropical Tidbits is back up. Pretty substantial blowup of -80C tops near the center currently. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Deep ring of -80C convection now around the center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 That cell headed towards Orlando is an absolute beast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 here is a good loop for radar https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=TBW-N0Q-1-200-100-usa-rad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Can really see a tug east during the ERC before a return to more northeasterly movement from the 10 hr loop. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Deep ring of -80C convection now around the center. Everyone can speculate but that to me shows the weakening halted and could give fuel to the N/NE eyewalls on approach. Dry air never really got to this either, we don’t have the half cane a lot of models showed. If that -80c convection focuses on the northern semicircle, watch for a slight tug in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We're watching on AWIPS at NWS Chicago and our educated guess has been the Anna Maria Island to Longboat Key corridor, seems like it would pass north of downtown Sarasota based on current radar extrapolation. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I buy what you're selling. It's tricky because the modeling suggests LL sfc circulation lagging a bit behind the radar returns close to landfall, and we also have the chance for a slight east tick. If the dynamics of the eye remain as they are now and you extrapolate fairly linearly... I'd take Holmes Beach/Cortez. It's certainly "in the ballpark" at this stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Yeah, the current heading sure looks heading directly for the mouth of the Bay/Bradenton 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: IR loop on Tropical Tidbits is back up. Pretty substantial blowup of -80C tops near the center currently. Too little too late. Just too much going against another period of intensification. More then likely the effects of baroclynic forcing. The wind field is definitely increasing and highest winds will probably stay steady state low end cat 3. This is, was and always will be about a record surge into a major population centers 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Yeah, the current heading sure looks heading directly for the mouth of the Bay/Bradenton Agree. Way north of Charley and Ian. Looks like Tampa might actually have their first direct strike since 1921. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Too little too late. Just too much going against another period of intensification. More then likely the effects of baroclynic forcing. The wind field is definitely increasing and highest winds will probably stay steady state low end cat 3. This is, was and always will be about a record surge into a major population centers Just to clarify, I wasn't implying that this was going to restrengthen, although some of the hurricane models had modest deepening occurring in the final 12 hours yesterday. But steady state or very slow weakening is likely, and impacts are going to continue to be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 125mph 950mb as of latest update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: I think the wobble tracker really helps, I don't think the motion is as far off track as many are saying https://www.wfla.com/video/wfla-com-wobble-tracker/adst9VARmWrkeNkr/ It would not be that huge of a track error if this came up the bay, maybe on a straight line 20 miles from the NHC track yesterday, just more a case where it deviated a bit the direction opposite where most models were moving the final 1-2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: Can really see a tug east during the ERC before a return to more northeasterly movement from the 10 hr loop. I think the landfall point zone has now narrowed between Clearwater and Sarasota, but this northerly tick after the completion of the ERC is why I cautioned against the urge to lock in a spot too soon. Even a quick turn into Sarasota is looking increasingly dicey (read: unlikely). To be clear, I’m only talking landfall point. With the larger eye now much of that zone I highlighted could still get eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 No need for wobble tracking. Using the center fixes from recon, the longer term motion has been clear. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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