jburns Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17 active tornado warnings. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that many. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Helpful tool to give you an idea of potential storm surge: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 TDS’s west of Port St. Lucie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Per Tampa radar - the eye is about 85% closed now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Massive debris ball in Hilolo, FL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, jburns said: 17 active tornado warnings. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that many. 51 total today per TWC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 2 TDS’s west of Port St. Lucie Luckily doesn't seem like they are over much in the way of civilization right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Northeastern-most TOR looks to pass about 10 miles west of me. think I could see it if I head over to the closest I-95 interchange as soon as the associated rain passes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 St Lucie tornado 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest VDM reports 944mb and the following: 1/3 CLOSED INNER EYEWALL BAND 14NM DIAM, 1/3 CLOSED OUTER EYE BAND 26NM DIAM To put this 944 mb into better perspective for the area, the 1921 cat 3 Tarpon Springs storm had a landfall there at 952 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Some gusty winds and isolated storms even down my way in Deerfield Beach. Can't imagine those under big cells or the beef or the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 51 total today per TWC I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Incredible amounts of lightning accompanying the tornadoes in Port St. Lucie. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017 Maybe that 51 number was for newly identified couplets and not a continuation of a prior warning? Just wondering where the discrepancy is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 No way all these tornadoes are going to be able to avoid high population areas forever. What a remarkable outbreak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, beanskip said: No way all these tornadoes are going to be able to avoid high population areas forever. What a remarkable outbreak. They already have. Significant damage in Fort Myers: https://x.com/theScantman/status/1844067282361930200 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Givin the current forward speed we are only about 3 hours from the outer edges of the eyewall impacting land. Seems early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Blitzortung.org - Live Lightning Map Already starting to get some rumbling. This is not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 buoy now has wind gusts up to 65mph. Also, 5 tornado reports shown on this radar view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 another possible large tornado by Yeehaw Junction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, beanskip said: No way all these tornadoes are going to be able to avoid high population areas forever. What a remarkable outbreak. Over the next couple of hours these cells will be entering the highly populated I-4 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17 active TOR warnings, with several being not too far south of Orlando. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (1) Tornadoes: There is a baroclinic enhancement/processes going on that are raising the tornado potential leading to the notable apparent outbreak and intensity of cells. The elongated hodographs due to the RF quad of Milton are interacting with favorable jet dynamics and a warm frontal boundary. For all intents and purposes, areas of SE and central Florida may as well be in a warm sector. Also with the high pwatts/moisture, you can spin things up more easily. Overall hodographs are "meh+", but LL SRH values are extremely high - stp values supportive of EF-3 for many areas. HRRR fcst soundings and spc mesoanalysis show the various support features well. I'm still surprised by # of strong tornadoes. Violent tornadoes from hurricanes are a bit unusual. Spc did well with the 10% hatch. Certainly its own story after the storm is over. Not sure where this will fall in historical context. (2) In general, it has been progged for a few days that the storm will come in as a weakening C3. That continues to appear accurate. It is not "making a comeback" now...and it wasn't supposed to. It's more a question of "how well it holds together" in these final hours. It has hot bath water, and upper level support, but shear is clearly unfavorable. Eye may close off temporarily but should be more open than closed. Shear and closed eyewalls are not friends. Also remember that as this occurs, precip banding will continue to trend toward the vorticity (North), versus a direct alignment of the column. That's also contributing to the wobbles. Beam height right now of E eyewall from KTBW is 9k feet. I buy the VDMs more than the TB radar for eyewall characteristics since, you know, they're there. (3) As the mid level vort max moves north, it will and is tugging the storm north. Hard to prognosticate landfall watching radar frame by frame. Storm is interacting with sw trough. Long term motion still looks ne ...it's messy with the complex eyewall changes going on and the baroclinic interaction. I'm not on the early south landfall train right now. Still kinda seems Sarasota to Bradenton to me, but I'm leaning Sarasota. 17 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Based on the 15Z & 18Z NHC update and the 18Z multiplatform wind field Milton's IKE has decreased to 37 TJ. Since the NHC does not publish the wind fields in their public advisories I can only estimate the IKE. We'll have to wait for the 21Z update for the official value. Anyway, this is good news in that the environment has been more hostile than forecasted in terms of Milton's overall wind field. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (1) Tornadoes: There is a baroclinic enhancement/processes going on that are raising the tornado potential leading to the notable apparent outbreak and intensity of cells. The elongated hodographs due to the RF quad of Milton are interacting with favorable jet dynamics and a warm frontal boundary. For all intents and purposes, areas of SE and central Florida may as well be in a warm sector. Also with the high pwatts/moisture, you can spin things up more easily. Overall hodographs are "meh+", but LL SRH values are extremely high - stp values supportive of EF-3 for many areas. HRRR fcst soundings and spc mesoanalysis show the various support features well. I'm still surprised by # of strong tornadoes. Violent tornadoes from hurricanes are a bit unusual. Spc did well with the 10% hatch. Certainly its own story after the storm is over. Not sure where this will fall in historical context. (2) In general, it has been progged for a few days that the storm will come in as a weakening C3. That continues to appear accurate. It is not "making a comeback" now...and it wasn't supposed to. It's more a question of "how well it holds together" in these final hours. It has hot bath water, and upper level support, but shear is clearly unfavorable. Eye may close off temporarily but should be more open than closed. Shear and closed eyewalls are not friends. Also remember that as this occurs, precip banding will continue to trend toward the vorticity (North), versus a direct alignment of the column. That's also contributing to the wobbles. Beam height right now of E eyewall from KTBW is 9k feet. I buy the VDMs more than the TB radar for eyewall characteristics since, you know, they're there. (3) As the mid level vort max moves north, it will and is tugging the storm north. Hard to prognosticate landfall watching radar frame by frame. Storm is interacting with sw trough. Long term motion still looks ne ...it's messy with the complex eyewall changes going on and the baroclinic interaction. I'm not on the early south landfall train right now. Still kinda seems Sarasota to Bradenton to me, but I'm leaning Sarasota. We're watching on AWIPS at NWS Chicago and our educated guess has been the Anna Maria Island to Longboat Key corridor, seems like it would pass north of downtown Sarasota based on current radar extrapolation. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 For those looking for water rise information 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3PM NHC update: 948 mb, up from 944 mb at 2PM update. Not unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I'm guessing this comes in around 115 mph. Water still the biggest threat, although these twisters are causing a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looks to me like there’s more of an attempt of the outer eyewall to take over and lightning in the eyewall. That N eyewall still looks fierce. And some wobbles more northerly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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