Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Major Hurricane Milton


Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM reports 944mb and the following:

1/3 CLOSED INNER EYEWALL BAND 14NM DIAM, 1/3 CLOSED OUTER EYE BAND 26NM DIAM

 

To put this 944 mb into better perspective for the area, the 1921 cat 3 Tarpon Springs storm had a landfall there at 952 mb.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm seeing 71 per IEM, which is already the most in a single day in the state of Florida going back to 1986. Beats out the outbreak caused by Irma in 2017

Maybe that 51 number was for newly identified couplets and not a continuation of a prior warning? Just wondering where the discrepancy is. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, beanskip said:

No way all these tornadoes are going to be able to avoid high population areas forever. What a remarkable outbreak. 

Over the next couple of hours these cells will be entering the highly populated I-4 corridor. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

(1) Tornadoes:

There is a baroclinic enhancement/processes going on that are raising the tornado potential leading to the notable apparent outbreak and intensity of cells. The elongated hodographs due to the RF quad of Milton are interacting with favorable jet dynamics and a warm frontal boundary. For all intents and purposes, areas of SE and central Florida may as well be in a warm sector. Also with the high pwatts/moisture, you can spin things up more easily. Overall hodographs are "meh+", but LL SRH values are extremely high - stp values supportive of EF-3 for many areas. HRRR fcst soundings and spc mesoanalysis show the various support features well. I'm still surprised by # of strong tornadoes. Violent tornadoes from hurricanes are a bit unusual. Spc did well with the 10% hatch. Certainly its own story after the storm is over. Not sure where this will fall in historical context.

(2) In general, it has been progged for a few days that the storm will come in as a weakening C3. That continues to appear accurate. It is not "making a comeback" now...and it wasn't supposed to. It's more a question of "how well it holds together" in these final hours. It has hot bath water, and upper level support, but shear is clearly unfavorable. Eye may close off temporarily but should be more open than closed. Shear and closed eyewalls are not friends. Also remember that as this occurs, precip banding will continue to trend toward the vorticity (North), versus a direct alignment of the column. That's also contributing to the wobbles. Beam height right now of E eyewall from KTBW is 9k feet. I buy the VDMs more than the TB radar for eyewall characteristics since, you know, they're there. 

(3) As the mid level vort max moves north, it will and is tugging the storm north. Hard to prognosticate landfall watching radar frame by frame. Storm is interacting with sw trough. Long term motion still looks ne ...it's messy with the complex eyewall changes going on and the baroclinic interaction. I'm not on the early south landfall train right now. Still kinda seems Sarasota to Bradenton to me, but I'm leaning Sarasota. 

  • Like 17
  • Thanks 5
  • 100% 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Based on the 15Z & 18Z NHC update and the 18Z multiplatform wind field Milton's IKE has decreased to 37 TJ. Since the NHC does not publish the wind fields in their public advisories I can only estimate the IKE. We'll have to wait for the 21Z update for the official value. Anyway, this is good news in that the environment has been more hostile than forecasted in terms of Milton's overall wind field.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

(1) Tornadoes:
There is a baroclinic enhancement/processes going on that are raising the tornado potential leading to the notable apparent outbreak and intensity of cells. The elongated hodographs due to the RF quad of Milton are interacting with favorable jet dynamics and a warm frontal boundary. For all intents and purposes, areas of SE and central Florida may as well be in a warm sector. Also with the high pwatts/moisture, you can spin things up more easily. Overall hodographs are "meh+", but LL SRH values are extremely high - stp values supportive of EF-3 for many areas. HRRR fcst soundings and spc mesoanalysis show the various support features well. I'm still surprised by # of strong tornadoes. Violent tornadoes from hurricanes are a bit unusual. Spc did well with the 10% hatch. Certainly its own story after the storm is over. Not sure where this will fall in historical context.
(2) In general, it has been progged for a few days that the storm will come in as a weakening C3. That continues to appear accurate. It is not "making a comeback" now...and it wasn't supposed to. It's more a question of "how well it holds together" in these final hours. It has hot bath water, and upper level support, but shear is clearly unfavorable. Eye may close off temporarily but should be more open than closed. Shear and closed eyewalls are not friends. Also remember that as this occurs, precip banding will continue to trend toward the vorticity (North), versus a direct alignment of the column. That's also contributing to the wobbles. Beam height right now of E eyewall from KTBW is 9k feet. I buy the VDMs more than the TB radar for eyewall characteristics since, you know, they're there. 
(3) As the mid level vort max moves north, it will and is tugging the storm north. Hard to prognosticate landfall watching radar frame by frame. Storm is interacting with sw trough. Long term motion still looks ne ...it's messy with the complex eyewall changes going on and the baroclinic interaction. I'm not on the early south landfall train right now. Still kinda seems Sarasota to Bradenton to me, but I'm leaning Sarasota. 
We're watching on AWIPS at NWS Chicago and our educated guess has been the Anna Maria Island to Longboat Key corridor, seems like it would pass north of downtown Sarasota based on current radar extrapolation.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...