weatherwiz Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Winds might be more NNW there which would help vs due west or southwest. Expand That would certainly help. Just goes to show how nail biting of a situation is for there. A few wobbles of a track and several degrees of wind could be all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:45 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Someone asked so let’s take a look at radar. Three things stand out to me: 1) There’s a legitimate tornado outbreak that’s ongoing across the peninsula. Some of these have had very strong couplets. This will continue so even inland folks need to be vigilant. 2) The ERC at least on radar looks nearly complete. As you can see that’s leading to a much larger core. That’s important for who gets the eyewall and perhaps intensity heading into final approach. 3) There’s landfall zone is narrowing on the models but more importantly narrowing on radar. Do not let your guard down slightly north of Tampa or slightly south of Sarasota. As the landfall zone narrows, it’s still critical to pay attention to long term motion, but every wobble becomes increasingly important. Watch to see if the heading slightly shows its cards after the ERC completes. Expand At the end of this loop it appears that the old inner eyewall collapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9, 2024 Author Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:47 PM, NJwx85 said: At the end of this loop it appears that the old inner eyewall collapses. Expand It stops short of the present frame, which still shows the inner eyewall trying to hang on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:44 PM, TPAwx said: 3 of 4 hurricane model landfalls clustered at Anna Maria Island/Holmes Beach. HAFS-A a bit south near Sarasota. Expand It also seems like the earlier a model projects landfall it seems to be slightly farther north. Maybe because that means less time for the East turn. CMC is the outlier there, but it has been a southern outlier the entire way. This just looks so close. One wobble to the North could put Tampa right in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:42 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: https://x.com/B_conley25/status/1844061688578048343 wow……. Expand That's an EF3 maybe even a 4 by the looks of it, can almost make out what looks like horizontal vertices. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:46 PM, MUWX said: Surge appears to be starting to reach the coast. Expand Winds have turned to the SE in Ft. Myers area so surge has started there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 11 active TOR warnings. Folks in the eastern part of the peninsula must be stunned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:51 PM, RamblinRed said: It also seems like the earlier a model projects landfall it seems to be slightly farther north. Maybe because that means less time for the East turn. CMC is the outlier there, but it has been a southern outlier the entire way. This just looks so close. One wobble to the North could put Tampa right in the cross hairs. Expand CMC (12Z) is no longer a S outlier as it is near Bradenton just like the GFS and near the UKMET, and only very slightly S of the Euro/Icon at TB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Looks like Milton is bare minimum cat 4 now on latest update. 130 mph 944mb. I'm thinking it may landfall as low end 3 unless it restrengthens later but probably unlikely given satellite/radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 https://tornadopaths.engin.umich.edu/ has 3 confirmed tornadoes so far today in Florida. I am sure that will shoot up as reports come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 It should continue to weaken from here on out. But as many noted, the wind field will continue to expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Surge starting at Port Manatee gauge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:01 PM, CoastalWx said: It should continue to weaken from here on out. But as many noted, the wind field will continue to expand. Expand The damage is done. Surge is baked in. And the tornado/flash flooding threats inland are prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:01 PM, CoastalWx said: It should continue to weaken from here on out. But as many noted, the wind field will continue to expand. Expand The winds will decrease, but is the storm surge height pretty much "locked in" for lack of a better term due to how close it is to shore, and how strong it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Milton making a bit of a comeback on IR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Post less, read more. Before asking a question, scroll back and see if it’s already been asked, answered, or perhaps to see if someone else inadvertently answered your question. 3 1 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 5:38 PM, GaWx said: It seems to be pretty close to the others for the landfall anyway. 12Z landfalls of main globals Euro 11PM Tampa Bay ICON 10PM Tampa Bay CMC ~12:30AM ~Bradenton GFS 11PM Bradenton UKMET ~10PM ~Bradenton Expand On radar, it appears to be moving ENE pretty fast, you'd get landfall well before 10pm if you extrapolated it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:10 PM, BYG Jacob said: Milton making a bit of a comeback on IR Expand Not quite, the symmetry is not there. Milton is lopsided and ragged. Not to mention the eye is still not quite organized and open yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Currently in Cortez, FL…on the coast near Bradenton.The outer bands have been gusty, but nothing significant.Monitoring for the possibility of needing to step south a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:13 PM, BYG Jacob said: It didn’t even look like it had an eye for a while. Looks like the new eye might be close to closing off and clearing out Expand It’s getting close, yes. Probably about 1-2hrs away from that happening. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:09 PM, Wannabehippie said: The winds will decrease, but is the storm surge height pretty much "locked in" for lack of a better term due to how close it is to shore, and how strong it was? Expand Yeah I don't see that really being reduced much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9, 2024 Author Share Posted October 9, 2024 Currently 2 PDS tornado warnings in central FL. What a tornado day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9, 2024 Author Share Posted October 9, 2024 Latest VDM reports 944mb and the following: 1/3 CLOSED INNER EYEWALL BAND 14NM DIAM, 1/3 CLOSED OUTER EYE BAND 26NM DIAM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Still managing to avoid most of the dry air coming in from the West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 PDS TOR may go over I-95 and through Port St. Lucie. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:15 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Currently 2 PDS tornado warnings in central FL. What a tornado day. Expand I have family currently riding this out in the Disney area. Things should get interesting in that region over the next 4-6 hours tornado wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 Purely extrapolating current heading and distance it still looks on pace to landfall pretty darn close to Anna Marie Island in about 6 hours…barring any wobbles . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:11 PM, Amped said: On radar, it appears to be moving ENE pretty fast, you'd get landfall well before 10pm if you extrapolated it. Expand According to the NHC... forward speed it supposed to decrease as it moves closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:19 PM, nutmegfriar said: PDS TOR may go over I-95 and through Port St. Lucie. Wow. Expand Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Melbourne FL 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 FLC085-111-091845- /O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-241009T1845Z/ St. Lucie FL-Martin FL- 218 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE AND NORTH CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES... At 217 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Tradition, or near Port Saint Lucie, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Port Saint Lucie, Tradition, and Saint Lucie West around 220 PM EDT. Fort Pierce and Fort Pierce South around 240 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Collins Park Estates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted October 9, 2024 Share Posted October 9, 2024 On 10/9/2024 at 6:19 PM, Interstate said: According to the NHC... forward speed it supposed to decrease as it moves closer to the coast. Expand When we see it decrease that’s a good sign we will see it head more east. I just hope it’s south of the Bay Its nasty in Tampa now. I am on the bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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