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Major Hurricane Milton


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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Curious to see if this new eyewall developing can close. Still looks healthy if a bit ragged on IR. Like others have said it’s pretty dramatically expanding its windfield at the moment. 

It certainly appears to be attempting to clear out the eye yet again.

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23 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Funky things happening in the eye, but does seem to be moving ENE right now (almost due East). Really hard to determine movement with the ongoing structural changes.

Still seems to be generally NNE (edit: last few frames are definitely E)

https://www.wfla.com/video/wfla-com-wobble-tracker/adst9VARmWrkeNkr/

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3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Is KSPG in St. Petersburg located in an exposed location? They are seeing the strongest sustained winds (and first Sustained TS winds I could find on land).

Wind is coming right off the bay. 

kspg.png

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: coming in much earlier than the 5AM of the 6Z; this run is in line with the other models and landfalls near Tampa Bay around 11PM

It seems like it's further north and slower than most 12z guidance.

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I’d say that the “bleed” south models had before has stopped on most guidance. Every wobble is going to certainly play a part like NHC alluded to. Last few wobbles have headed back NNE. 
 

Admittedly, I don’t know how you couldn’t be sweating bullets in Tampa/St.Pete at the moment. 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’d say that the “bleed” south models had before has stopped on most guidance. Every wobble is going to certainly play a part like NHC alluded to. Last few wobbles have headed back NNE. 
 

Admittedly, I don’t know how you couldn’t be sweating bullets in Tampa/St.Pete at the moment. 

The movement on radar has been pretty straight the last few hours, right along the NHC track towards Sarasota.

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11 minutes ago, Amped said:

It seems like it's further north and slower than most 12z guidance.

It seems to be pretty close to the others for the landfall anyway.

12Z landfalls of main globals

Euro 11PM Tampa Bay

ICON 10PM Tampa Bay

CMC ~12:30AM ~Bradenton

GFS 11PM Bradenton

UKMET ~10PM ~Bradenton

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR with a real nasty swath of winds coming in on the back side of this right into Fort Myers from the west. That will certainly pile up water.

This isn't looking good for the Bay area at all, especially with that occurring leading up to high tide. I mean maybe there are a few kinks which spare them the worst but it still looks like they could get core of eyewall plus the surge. I hope anyone who stayed is continuing to pay attention to this

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The tornado outbreak occurring ahead of the tornado will exacerbate wind damage when the actuall hurricane arrives.  Just another example of how powerful storms can cause unusual weather outcomes because the tornado outbreak occurring definitely was not expected on this level.  I’m certain the eastward expanding windfield and shear combo had something to do with this.  Would love a Mets thoughts 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

This isn't looking good for the Bay area at all, especially with that occurring leading up to high tide. I mean maybe there are a few kinks which spare them the worst but it still looks like they could get core of eyewall plus the surge. I hope anyone who stayed is continuing to pay attention to this

Winds might be more NNW there which would help vs due west or southwest.

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8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It seems to be pretty close to the others for the landfall anyway.

12Z landfalls of main globals

Euro 11PM Tampa Bay

ICON 10PM Tampa Bay

CMC ~12:30AM ~Bradenton

GFS 11PM Bradenton

UKMET ~10PM ~Bradenton

3 of 4 hurricane model landfalls clustered at Anna Maria Island/Holmes Beach.  HAFS-A a bit south near Sarasota.

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Someone asked so let’s take a look at radar.

giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91fxuywwsmxud92kkxf2
 

Three things stand out to me:

1) There’s a legitimate tornado outbreak that’s ongoing across the peninsula. Some of these have had very strong couplets. This will continue so even inland folks need to be vigilant.

2) The ERC at least on radar looks nearly complete. As you can see that’s leading to a much larger core. That’s important for who gets the eyewall and perhaps intensity heading into final approach.

3) The landfall zone is narrowing on the models but more importantly narrowing on radar. Do not let your guard down slightly north of Tampa or slightly south of Sarasota. As the landfall zone narrows, it’s still critical to pay attention to long term motion, but every wobble becomes increasingly important. 

Watch to see if the heading slightly shows its cards after the ERC completes. 

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Inner eyewall is pretty much gone now and a larger one has taken over. It's still fairly week and open to the south and southwest so we'll see if it can fully wrap around and slow the weakening a bit. 

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