NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The 12z NAM is basically a worst case track for Tampa bay. The more east trajectory after moving into the bay really allows the surge threat to get amplified with the Gulf water rushing in behind the circulation. It’s the NAM but should give some clues directionally on the rest of the 12z suite. Also shows a swath of 12-18" of rain with locally higher amounts over most of the I-4 corridor. Even though likely overdone, that's going to cause a lot of problems to go with the tornados and tropical storm force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Imo if the center makes its way ~due east of Tampa, in close proximity you will see the gulf rush into Tampa bay in the direction of Tampa. That would maximize the threat to Tampa specifically Just going to watch from here on out...I have endured enough weenie shrapnel from insisting this is coming north. It should be pretty apparent now viewing RAD. Hope folks in TB flood zones heeded warnings. 5 2 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 https://x.com/IMCFTraveller/status/1844017969468432551 Confirmed tornado earlier 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 One variable will be the timing of landfall with respect to the tide. Here are the predicted astronomical tides at TB: Low at 2:19PM High at ~6:50AM at ~2.8 ft Looks like it is projected to landfall only ~2 hours before high tide per the slower Euro but more like 5-6 hours before per several other models. That could make a 1 foot or so difference as far as highest water level (combo of surge and tide level) with Euro being ~1 foot higher for the highest water level just due to being closer to high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 928.8 mb extrap from recon. Pressure is coming up but again this is pretty much expected and in line with forecasts. As previously discussed the surge is basically baked in with ~12 hrs before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Extremely low tides being reported now in Clearwater/Dunedin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looks like surface pressure is up to around 932 millibars as the hurricane rapidly fills late this morning. The damage is done surge-wise; and we'll see how the extropical transition enhances wind gusts across Florida tomorrow morning. I'd put maximum sustained winds around 130 MPH at the moment. Category 4+ storm surge will occur near and south of landfall tonight regardless of the 'wind' category. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Don't remember this kind of language on surge gradients from NHC: We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 931mb / 145mph Cat 4....but ugh the tornadoes!! Could this be the bigger story? 2 1 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 145mph/931mb at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Buoy some 80miles east of center reporting 40-50mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 winds are starting to spread out Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Don't remember this kind of language on surge gradients from NHC: We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. The NHC does a tremendous job. After Francine’s eastward shift toward New Orleans late and Helene’s eastward shift toward Perry late I think it’s good that they are even more explicit in stating that a forecast can still have narrow in the whole scheme of things but tremendous uncertainty on final landfall point this late. Just now, kvegas-wx said: 931mb / 145mph Cat 4....but ugh the tornadoes!! Could this be the bigger story? No, it’ll almost certainly be the surge. It’s almost always the most devastating part of a hurricane of this magnitude. Tornadoes are serious, but just the prelude to the worst unfortunately. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12Z ICON still right at TB but with 10PM EDT landfall, which is 2 hours earlier than 6Z run’s midnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornado on the ground West of Clewiston just North of 27 appears headed in the direction of the town of Benbow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z ICON still right at TB but with 10PM EDT landfall, which is 2 hours earlier than 6Z run’s midnight Looks like it initialized too far south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 24 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Looks like surface pressure is up to around 932 millibars as the hurricane rapidly fills late this morning. The damage is done surge-wise; and we'll see how the extropical transition enhances wind gusts across Florida tomorrow morning. I'd put maximum sustained winds around 130 MPH at the moment. Category 4+ storm surge will occur near and south of landfall tonight regardless of the 'wind' category. Now is that 130MPH over water or on land? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Nasty looking. This will be lifting north and rotating onshore. Expect lots of Tornado Warnings over the next several hours. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Eye nearing latitude of Everglades City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Per the official 15Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased to 47 TJ. For point of comparison Charley 2004 had an IKE of only 12 TJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 hours ago, toolsheds said: Dumb question here.....Why doesn't the SPC have a higher risk for tornados across the swath where Milton is expected to cross Florida? I understand that possibly the Hurricane warnings might be covering the intensity of the storm, but I would think that SPC would definitely have this set as at least a Moderate or even High risk due to the extreme winds. If the SPC and NHC use different criteria for these forecasts, shouldn't they somewhat agree for an event like this? The local NWS offices issue "Extreme Wind Warnings" for along where the eyewall comes ashore. But the SPC & the NHC separate hurricane winds with severe storm winds. Local NWS offices do as well. They issue Tropical Storm & Hurricane Warnings to address high wind events from Tropical systems. They'll issue tornado warnings but not severe thunderstorm warnings. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eye nearing latitude of Everglades City. Was just about to post on this, a bit difficult to have a true feel but it seems like it's kind of re-formed a bit farther north and west with a northerly movement (basing on IR). I would want to think we would want to see a more easterly trajectory no later than 27N...or just a few ticks above 27N to really feel confident about lessening potential for greatest surge into the Bay 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Per the official 15Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased to 47 TJ. For point of comparison Charley 2004 had an IKE of only 12 TJ. 47 with likely 60-75 at LF, that’s going to cause some serious issues on the surge front (no surprise). 42 is around what Rita had if I’m not mistaken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, DDweatherman said: 47 with likely 60-75 at LF, that’s going to cause some serious issues on the surge front (no surprise). 42 is around what Rita had if I’m not mistaken. What was Katrina? Simply for context...not a comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What was Katrina? Simply for context...not a comparison. 105 TJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What was Katrina? Simply for context...not a comparison. 128 TJ at its peak. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, The Iceman said: 105 TJ Yeah I’m seeing this ”At landfall in southern Louisiana and Mississippi, Katrina had weakened to SS3 status (52 m s–1), but the marine- equivalent wind field in the storm core expanded (Fig. 1c) resulting in a respective IKETS of 122 TJ.” From an AOML article. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Was just about to post on this, a bit difficult to have a true feel but it seems like it's kind of re-formed a bit farther north and west with a northerly movement (basing on IR). I would want to think we would want to see a more easterly trajectory no later than 27N...or just a few ticks above 27N to really feel confident about lessening potential for greatest surge into the Bay Looks to be jogging NNE at the moment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Below sometime since about 1230Z... I didnt check the obs time specific. From MOE-Bob Hart extreme wind. KEYW: Key West, Key West Intl Arpt, FL, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNQX: Key West, Naval Air Stn, FL, United States [44kt, 23m/s] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 [mention=10150]bdgwx[/mention] Did you also happen to calculate the estimated IKE for Ian? Probably another good point of comparison there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now