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Major Hurricane Milton


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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Envt. was supposed to get pretty hostile Wed AM IMO. Maybe a break that its picked up right as the EWRC started. I hadn't realized that shear was already impacting it when I commented on the EWRC being bad news a bit earlier.

I actually wonder if the ERC is nearly complete. This image was as of a couple hours ago

Screenshot_2024-10-09-08-33-37-219.jpg

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Most significant change overnight was the models with the quick bend east now. I'm thinking more along the lines of Siesta Key area now. This will speed up landfall as well. Probably later this evening. I'll stick to roughly 135mph. Pressure will probably head up toward 935 to 940mb. That said, I believe the weakening is being overplayed a bit.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 690
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   815 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and South Florida
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 815 AM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes likely
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Supercells in the outer rain bands of Hurricane Milton
   will pose a threat for several tornadoes today across the central
   and southern Florida Peninsula. The forecast maximum wind gusts and
   mean cell motion apply to severe thunderstorms outside the eyewall.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Saint
   Petersburg FL to 10 miles south southwest of Marathon FL. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 17040.

   ...Gleason
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Latest IR shows deep convection really starting to encircle the eye wall again. Will be very curious to see how it responds to a more hostile environment but would no be surprised to see the eye re-appear in the next couple hours


.

IMG_6357.jpg
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5 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

What are the moderation rules?  A lot of posts that discuss decreasing threats and intensity and question the “reaction” to the storm are deleted, while posts that inflate the government predictions are kept up.
 

Why the bias?  How is that helpful? 

What exactly are the decreasing threats? This is still a 155 mph cat 4 that is right on track with intensity expectations and encountering shear as has been widely discussed for 48 hours.  It may well end up weaker then expected but high end impacts are baked in at this point 

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4 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Latest IR shows deep convection really starting to encircle the eye wall again. Will be very curious to see how it responds to a more hostile environment but would no be surprised to see the eye re-appear in the next couple hours


.

IMG_6357.jpg

Looks like the western side of the storm really being affected by the dry air

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Milton is so far doing an excellent job of fighting off the shear. As someone else just eluded too, new deep convection (-80C or colder) cloud tops have begun wrapping around the Western half of the system. The ragged appearance this morning was likely due to a combination of the ERC and overall less favorable conditions. 

Additionally, dry air intrusion is currently minimal if at all. The models that weaken Milton the most on final approach have dry air wrapping around the entire Southeastern portion of the storm. It will be interesting to see if this happens. 

The 12z sounding out of Key West still shows a very moist environment. 

9kx0oOt.gif

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Rainfall threat is not getting enough attention —can already see the PRE well established and intensifying. Incredibly heavy rainfall all day today Tampa on North/East towards Jacksonville 

This combined with the tornado threat are going to be major stories away from the immediate coast. 

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If anything,  the dry air and shear is enhancing the threat of tornadoes. I'm amazed at looking at the Tampa, Key West and Miami NWS radars showing all of these numerous tornadic cuplets in these supercells

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49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06z euro still north of the Tampa Bay 

Its going to be crucial to see how well the sysem endures the EWRC now that shear has began to impinge on the outflow over the western semicircle...I think this AM is the last real crcuial inflection point for Milton with respect to ultimate landfall locale and intensity....aside from wobbles very late in the game.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not an expert but this shear profile doesn't look that unfavorable to me. If it gets strong enough, it might tilt the vortex some, but it's aligned with the track.

wg8midshr.GIF

Its mitigated a great deal by the fact that its moving in generally the same direction....obviously if Milton were moving west, like most tropical systems, then it would be getting absolutely denuded.

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I think more important, or at least just as important, than the shear is the exceptionally dry air over the western Gulf. So far, Milton has largely fought it off. See how long it does. 

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Are there any bouy or floating sensors in the path that measure water depth? Curious if it could capture the “bulge”. No way this thing isn’t carrying a crap tonne of ocean water with it. Pressure has been too low for too long. Add on the length of time it’s had to traverse the gulf. Not good.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not an expert but this shear profile doesn't look that unfavorable to me. If it gets strong enough, it might tilt the vortex some, but it's aligned with the track.

wg8midshr.GIF

Agreed. At least to this point, the degraded IR presentation looks to be more from an ERWC than from shear blasting the core. As others have pointed out, the models that degrade the storm rapidly basically dissipate the southern half of the storm due to dry air and looking at lower level water vapor imagery im just not seeing the dry air to the south of the storm for shear to push in yet. I also don’t see how this doesn’t make landfall significantly earlier than it looked last night 

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3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Agreed. At least to this point, the degraded IR presentation looks to be more from an ERWC than from shear blasting the core. As others have pointed out, the models that degrade the storm rapidly basically dissipate the southern half of the storm due to dry air and looking at lower level water vapor imagery im just not seeing the dry air to the south of the storm for shear to push in yet. I also don’t see how this doesn’t make landfall significantly earlier than it looked last night 

Another point is how much the negative influence of the shear is being negated by the enhanced evacuation of air to the NE....just food for thought. This is why intensity forecasts are so multifaceted and complex.

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3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Agreed. At least to this point, the degraded IR presentation looks to be more from an ERWC than from shear blasting the core. As others have pointed out, the models that degrade the storm rapidly basically dissipate the southern half of the storm due to dry air and looking at lower level water vapor imagery im just not seeing the dry air to the south of the storm for shear to push in yet. I also don’t see how this doesn’t make landfall significantly earlier than it looked last night 

If it makes the hook to the right sooner, it probably makes landfall sooner. Maybe that would be a little good news in terms of high tide timing since that seems to be overnight. Evening time would be lower tide. Agree about the dry air, it looks pretty potent. Dew points in coastal LA have been in the 40s, so it could have a quite detrimental effect on Milton if it can get wrapped in. 

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1 minute ago, AccuChris said:


I was wondering the same as the lowest pressure they found was 941mb. So either they totally missed it or the pressure rose 20mb in an hour


.

Yeah I mean they clearly missed it based on the lack of wind direction change.  I just wonder why.

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3 minutes ago, AccuChris said:


I was wondering the same as the lowest pressure they found was 941mb. So either they totally missed it or the pressure rose 20mb in an hour


.


That much of an increase in the lowest SLP would be nice to see. However, I saw this elsewhere:

 “Recon passed about 8 - 10 miles south of the eye, lowest pressure was 941.6 mb extrapolated with 107 kt winds.”

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2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:


I was wondering the same as the lowest pressure they found was 941mb. So either they totally missed it or the pressure rose 20mb in an hour
 

Forgive me if this is very daft but 941? Your image says 917 and 923. Am I missing something here?

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