Major Hurricane Milton

[WxWatcher007]

Milton continues to look remarkably strong this morning as recon finds lower pressure than a few hours ago. An ERC is underway however, with the last recon VDM showing a concentric eye with the inner eye at 8nm and the outer at 32nm. Tremendous lightning (not shown) remains in the center but you can clearly see the eye becoming less defined here as the ERC progresses.

Recon is moving toward another center pass now and continues to find FL winds in excess of 150kt.

Now that we’re in radar range, both recon fixes and satellite will help us get a better sense of exact heading relative to the coast. 

Wobbles are common. 

In both directions.

There will be a lot of speculation and radar hallucinations. You need to stay anchored to long term motion. One or two center fixes can be informative but are NOT a long term motion.

Keep that in mind as you’re tracking today. We’re likely to know the landfall zone only a few hours before landfall. The models certainly remain useful, but for track I’m going to start relying more on the actual radar and recon data now. 

This remains a multi-hazard event even inland. Remain vigilant. 

The flash flood risk is coming into greater focus. Folks in the high risk zone today and tomorrow need to avoid flood prone areas as the rain picks up today. 

The tornado threat is significant as well today. Anyone getting bands should pay attention even outside the enhanced risk zone.

[dan11295]

6Z GFS has some interesting movement where it goes almost due E between hr 12-18. Its one of the reason it appears the landfall location is as far south at it is. Need to see the other 6z models obviously.

[cptcatz]

Eyewall replacement cycle occurring. That inner eyewall still producing 154 kt wind while that secondary peak is already at 127 kt. Will be interesting to see how the storm structure changes. 

[TPAwx]

6z HAFS-B landfall near Sarasota/Siesta Key early AM Thursday.  950s.

[toolsheds]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Milton continues to look remarkably strong this morning as recon finds lower pressure than a few hours ago. An ERC is underway however, with the last recon VDM showing a concentric eye with the inner eye at 8nm and the outer at 32nm. Tremendous lightning (not shown) remains in the center but you can clearly see the eye becoming less defined here as the ERC progresses.

Recon is moving toward another center pass now and continues to find FL winds in excess of 150kt.

Now that we’re in radar range, both recon fixes and satellite will help us get a better sense of exact heading relative to the coast. 

Wobbles are common. 

In both directions.

There will be a lot of speculation and radar hallucinations. You need to stay anchored to long term motion. One or two center fixes can be informative but are NOT a long term motion.

Keep that in mind as you’re tracking today. We’re likely to know the landfall zone only a few hours before landfall. The models certainly remain useful, but for track I’m going to start relying more on the actual radar and recon data now. 

This remains a multi-hazard event even inland. Remain vigilant. 

The flash flood risk is coming into greater focus. Folks in the high risk zone today and tomorrow need to avoid flood prone areas as the rain picks up today. 

The tornado threat is significant as well today. Anyone getting bands should pay attention even outside the enhanced risk zone.

Dumb question here.....Why doesn't the SPC have a higher risk for tornados across the swath where Milton is expected to cross Florida?  I understand that possibly the Hurricane warnings might be covering the intensity of the storm, but I would think that SPC would definitely have this set as at least a Moderate or even High risk due to the extreme winds.  If the SPC and NHC use different criteria for these forecasts, shouldn't they somewhat agree for an event like this?

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

Dumb question here.....Why doesn't the SPC have a higher risk for tornados across the swath where Milton is expected to cross Florida?  I understand that possibly the Hurricane warnings might be covering the intensity of the storm, but I would think that SPC would definitely have this set as at least a Moderate or even High risk due to the extreme winds.  If the SPC and NHC use different criteria for these forecasts, shouldn't they somewhat agree for an event like this?

The highest tornado risk would be to the right of the storm’s path so that would be S FL. That’s where the most favorable conditions exist for supercells and tornadoes. 

[Weather Mike]

If the eye wall is undergoing replacement then I assume it could regain strength and be more resistant to the shear/dry air vs if it underwent EWR later today ? 

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

6Z GFS has some interesting movement where it goes almost due E between hr 12-18. Its one of the reason it appears the landfall location is as far south at it is. Need to see the other 6z models obviously.

Should there be concern this morning, if we don’t start to see noticeable shifts north and east in movement of Milton. Areas south of Sarasota down to Punta Gorda could still be in the path.

[boiler1111]

10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Should there be concern this morning, if we don’t start to see noticeable shifts north and east in movement of Milton. Areas south of Sarasota down to Punta Gorda could still be in the path.

They are still in the cone all the way down to Punta Gorda - and history says these storms approaching the west coast of FL don’t always respect the models before deciding what to do. 

[lee59]

It looks like some shear and dry air are finally having some affect on the storm, lets hope.

[KPITSnow]

4 minutes ago, boiler1111 said:

They are still in the cone all the way down to Punta Gorda - and history says these storms approaching the west coast of FL don’t always respect the models before deciding what to do. 

Different scenario. Storms approaching from the south have a much more wild variance on where they landfall because a 25 mile east shift means 100+ miles difference on the last fkr landfall. This has a much more easterly component so you won’t see that much of a landfall adjustment 

[BoulderWX]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

It looks like some shear and dry air are finally having some affect on the storm, lets hope.

Agree. Eye is looking a little more ragged this morning but doesn’t really change the threats much. Forecasted surge and rainfall already seem to be a lock. Max winds and landfall location still to be determined. 
 

sticking with my 115mph LF @ Siesta Key prediction 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[dan11295]

6z tropicals all shifted to the east. Obviously do not let your guard down in Tampa proper. But definitely leaning towards Siesta Key down to Sarasota myself. Still an open question how much Milton weakens before landfall. Thats not going to matter much wrt surge unfortunately.

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Shear is finally hitting. That’s not just ERC. That’s a full erosion of the western circulation. Thank the lord this is still a tight circulation. Will mitigate surge somewhat. 

There's still a huge windfield to the southeast of the center which should still be expanding.  Nothing is stopping the massive surge that will occur on the coast south of the landfall point.

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

6z tropicals all shifted to the east. Obviously do not let your guard down in Tampa proper. But definitely leaning towards Siesta Key down to Sarasota myself. Still an open question how much Milton weakens before landfall. Thats not going to matter much wrt surge unfortunately.

More on this here - south of most guidance *for now*

 

[buckeyefan1]

Cat 4 155mph 915mb NE at 16

[EWR757]

CAT 1 winds forecast at KSRQ with tropical storm force winds forecast at KPIE and KTPA

KSRQ 091141Z 0912/1012 08014G22KT 6SM -RA VCTS SCT010CB BKN030 TEMPO 0912/0916 08020G30KT 1SM +TSRA BKN010CB FM091600 09018G28KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0916/0920 09025G40KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM092000 10025G40KT 3SM RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0920/0924 09035G50KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM100000 10035G55KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100500 13080G110KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100800 30050G75KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006

 

KPIE 091143Z 0912/1012 07014G22KT 5SM -RA SCT008 BKN020 TEMPO 0912/0916 2SM SHRA BKN008 FM091800 07015G25KT 4SM -RA BR VCTS SCT006CB OVC015 TEMPO 0918/0922 07020G35KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM092200 07030G45KT 3SM RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0922/1002 07040G55KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM100500 06040G60KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100800 03050G70KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006

 

KTPA 091144Z 0912/1018 07012G18KT 5SM -RA SCT008 BKN020 TEMPO 0912/0916 2SM SHRA BKN008 FM091800 07015G25KT 4SM -RA BR VCTS SCT006CB OVC015 TEMPO 0918/0922 07020G35KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM092200 07022G32KT 3SM RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0922/1002 07025G40KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM100500 06035G55KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100800 03040G65KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM101200 33030G45KT P6SM VCSH SCT006 OVC015

[SolidIcewx]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

More on this here - south of most guidance *for now*

 

Looking at the wobble tracker and IR images it does look like it’s going more to the center of the forecast track the past hour or so

[jm1220]

Maybe a bit more of a tug to the north the last few frames? 

[dan11295]

NHC dropped the surge in Tampa Bay down to 8-12 ft imho telegraphing a shift east of the track at 11 am. But I hope those in places like near Charlotte Harbor got out if they were close to surge zone. Don't want a repeat of what happened in Lee County with Ian.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe a bit more of a tug to the north the last few frames? 

06z euro still north of the Tampa Bay 

[schoeppeya]

Those supercells that are offshore are going to be a really, really bad situation.

[weatherwiz]

That is one heck of a primed environment for tornadoes. 3km CAPE values going to approach 200 J/KG with MLCAPE > 1000 J/KG and 0-1km helicity > 300 m2s2. 

[olafminesaw]

Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield. 

[bobbutts]

6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Those supercells that are offshore are going to be a really, really bad situation.

Pretty impressive radar image there

[msuwx]

Interesting dichotomy between radar presentation (which still looks quite healthy) and the significantly degraded satellite presentation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Shear evident on IR, perhaps a bit more than expected at this point. But convection is fighting hard with a new burst wrapping around the center. On track for steady weakening, but a rapid expansion of the windfield. 

Envt. was supposed to get pretty hostile Wed AM IMO. Maybe a break that its picked up right as the EWRC started. I hadn't realized that shear was already impacting it when I commented on the EWRC being bad news a bit earlier.

[msuwx]

I also am interested to see how quickly this weakens. A lot of mesoscale models really show this thing dramatically falling apart as it nears landfall. Big time. 

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

I also am interested to see how quickly this weakens. A lot of mesoscale models really show this thing dramatically falling apart as it nears landfall. Big time. 

6Z GFS really weakens it, HAFS and other tropical models not so much.