SnowGoose69 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Both HAFS go into long boat key, the HMON goes into St Pete still. HWRF still most north into Johns Pass. worst track for Tampa by far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Both HAFS go into long boat key, the HMON goes into St Pete still Obviously slightly better scenario for Tampa Bay area but I imagine the initial surge would still be substantial into the bay on that track? This all seems terrible for Sarasota which I have a familial connection to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 00z Hurricane Models at or just prior to landfall. Not nearly as much weakening as was previously modeled. HAFS-A/B take an E/ENE track from these points of reference. HWRF and HMON continue to put St. Pete (and the mouth of the Tampa Bay waterway) in the bullseye. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 00Z Euro makes landfall at St. Pete Beach 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 48 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Its not that Florida isn't used to heavy rain events - the problem is that usually the rain only falls over a small area and only for a short time.......Milton will bring tremendous areal coverage of precip at 2" and 3" per hour rates for hours.......that is a recipe for disaster......the storm drainage systems don't stand a chance.....localized urban flash flooding is a very real threat..... Some of those drainage systems are still damaged from Ian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 00Z Euro makes landfall at St. Pete Beach Goalposts narrowing between Treasure Island & Longboat Key. Regardless of Milton's exact landfall location, impacts will be devastating, yet on a relative basis a St. Pete Beach landfall would be close to a worst case scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Hurricane Milton up to this point. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 0Z UKMET: Bradenton (similar to 12Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 19 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: 00z Hurricane Models at or just prior to landfall. Not nearly as much weakening as was previously modeled. HAFS-A/B take an E/ENE track from these points of reference. HWRF and HMON continue to put St. Pete (and the mouth of the Tampa Bay waterway) in the bullseye. Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 EXTRAP 912.6 mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, Amped said: Hmon and HWRF still have wind trajectories that look like they are sucking water out of the bay rather than pushing it in, and from this storm size/shape it would have to track way north through Port Richey for TB to get the maximum surge. Water would slosh right back into the Bay with the HWRF/HMON tracks on the back side, coincident with high tide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: EXTRAP 912.6 mb Incredible. The resilience is textbook. Time is running out for weakening. And while it will obviously weaken the fact that it’s still so strong now into the final climb towards landfall means the surge and wave setup is that of a cat 5. Very Katrina. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Hurricane force winds still only extend out thirty miles from the center. Wow. I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Incredible. The resilience is textbook. Time is running out for weakening. And while it will obviously weaken the fact that it’s still so strong now into the final climb towards landfall means the surge and wave setup is that of a cat 5. Very Katrina. The difference that occurs to me is Milton is a good bit smaller than Katrina. Though NHC has mentioned several times they expect it to grow in size before making landfall. They’ve also mentioned Milton might already be beginning to make extratropical transition by the time it makes landfall, which is pretty wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Dropsonde was 910 mb at 14 kts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Enhanced SPC outlook with a 10% hatched tornado area west and north of Lake O. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I suspect it will gain more of a northerly component the next 6-8 hours as the base of the shortwave trough in the western gulf has reached Milton’s latitude. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g0ldl10n Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Updated microwave imaging definitely showing the eye is becoming even more defined. This storm seems impressively resilient! Praying for all in its path! https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_14L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html Screen_Recording_20241009_024841_Brave.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Damn. What a gradient. Looks like it might be below 910 this pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Yeah, Milton’s core is still very small and compact. Finding Milton’s peak wind is no easy task. They can easily miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 907mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This would make Milton the first ATL Basin hurricane to go Sub-910 three times. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I can't see this going truly extratropical before Friday s of SC, but it could be hybrid by 36h. Wasn't there a debate about a possibly too-early call on Sandy being e.t. before NJ landfall? It would only confuse the public who would not get the spreading out wind field concept, personally I think they should retire the whole concept, if it's a hybrid or e.t. storm doing damage then keep issuing advisories until it's not doing damage. Now Kirk is definitely e.t. and has been for 24 ... and it's almost below damage creating criteria (wind gusts in nw Spain were 65-70 on very exposed rocky cliffs and look to be around 60-65 in western France). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 One thing that worries me is hurricanes try to avoid hitting land as long as possible and given the trajectory, a more northern landfall wouldn't surprise me. Nail biter for TB 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Pressure Lunacy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Weather radio and tornado warning woke me up. It is now on the local radar. Funny how that little green blob I see will make so many, maybe even myself, say goodbye to the world we thought we lived in. The lyrics of Mika's song, Any other world, seem to go with the mood right now. It's time to finish getting ready for Milton's unwanted visit. Good luck to all those in it's path. In any other worldYou could tell the differenceAnd let it all unfurlInto broken remnants Smile like you mean itAnd let yourself let go 'Cause it's all in the hands of a bitter, bitter manSay goodbye to the world you thought you lived inTake a bow, play the part of a lonely, lonely heartSay goodbye to the world you thought you lived inTo the world you thought you lived in 2 2 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Down to 907. Forecast track slight adjustment north. Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6z ICON centered over and tracking right up TB. Late PM Wed/early AM Thurs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 EWRC looks to be starting. Eyewall is collapsing it appears on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6z GFS landfall Longboat Key/Sarasota early AM Thursday. Slightly south of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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