Major Hurricane Milton

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest VDM has a central pressure of 916mb with a 6nm wide eye and a peak FL wind of 142kt.

Probably start an ERC by dawn.

[gallopinggertie]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I am surprised how small Milton still is, I wonder if that could maybe lessen the extent of the storm surge if it doesn't expand the wind field much in the next 24 hours. 

I had the same thought, was also surprised by people saying that IKE would be really high for that reason.

[boiler1111]

9 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

Pardon my ignorance, but how common is a rainfall event like this in western Florida? I thought they were used to torrential rains from summer thunderstorms, but that does sound exceptional. 

I live in Lakewood Ranch / Bradenton and most of Manatee and Sarasota county had 20+ inches of rain from Debby back in August. There was extensive flooding from that in places that generally do not see issues but that was an exception. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably start an ERC by dawn.

I have not read your latest update but I'm guessing you are expecting this to be a significantly expanded storm by landfall in terms of wind field?

[WxWatcher007]

I have two tweets/images that may be helpful in understanding where we are and where we’re going. 

The first is a hovmoller to understand the gradual expansion of the wind field. Although Milton’s inner core had remained small, the annotated image below makes it clear that the wind field overall has grown over time. This is going to continue as the storm approaches the coast. At this point, major to catastrophic surge is almost certainly set in motion for wherever that maximum zone sets up. It’s why folks under evacuation orders needed to heed those warnings—as I said this morning, we still cannot know the exact landfall zone and as such folks should anticipate the worst and take action now rather than wait until a few hours before landfall. 
 

The second is also very important imo: it’s a cross section of the core. Andy does a great job of pointing out how exceptionally strong and deep this inner core is. 

In a vacuum, this has two implications imo 

1) This kind of core could be quite resilient to increasing shear.

2) This deep a vortex could be more apt to move poleward as it turns NE and feels the influence of the trough.

We’re not in a vacuum however. I think a lot of what happens with track and intensity will depend on when and how long an ERC takes place. It’s still a small core, that can ramp up or down quickly.

An ERC late tomorrow, as shear is increasing, may very well weaken the vortex substantially, leading to a weaker storm that tracks further south. 

If, however, we get an ERC to begin overnight and complete quickly, it would expand the vortex, making it more inertially stable and resistant to shear that arrives when the vortex is less vulnerable, which would potentially hold the intensity at wherever the ERC leaves it, and make jogs north more likely, especially if the convection becomes “weighted” to the northern section.

These aren’t major shifts. But they may make the difference between a landfall at 120mph and maybe 135mph, or south/north of Tampa. 

Just my evening thought. I don’t know which side we’ll end up on. 
 

Edit: for the FL folks, I’m just using Tampa because that’s really the dividing line on center potential. Obviously, a further south impact would be major to catastrophic for Sarasota, Port Charlotte, and even Ft. Meyers if this trends south late, which is possible as well. 

[RU848789]

11 pm advisory: 160 mph/915 mbar and no real track change from 5 pm.  Edit - map up now... 

The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations.  This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.4N  86.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.5N  83.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 28.5N  78.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  11/1200Z 29.0N  75.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 29.4N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0000Z 30.4N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0000Z 31.5N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Floydbuster]

They don't seem confident in exact landfall or intensity yet, and I don't blame them. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

I'm assuming the NHC won't lower the storm surge forecasts for the Tampa area until and unless the forecast confidence in a track at least 10-20 miles south of Tampa Bay is very high; probably not until 12-18 hours before landfall, maybe tomorrow at 11 am.  Evacuating "unnecessarily" for a 10-15' storm surge is far less of an issue than dropping the surge forecast now and then having many people not evacuate (or even have some return) and then having the track actually head into TB with 10-15' of surge, causing far more loss of life.  Having spent many years doing risk analysis in the chemical industry, one usually doesn't discount a catastrophic risk impact (high severity) until the probability of that risk being realized becomes quite low and we're not there yet.  

And there are still quite a few 18Z models (GFS, NAM, ICON, RDPS, HWRF, HMON and the HAFs) showing landfall either in Tampa Bay or within 5-10 miles of it, so the probability of a Tampa Bay landfall is still too high to lower the surge forecast, IMO.  

Well the NHC did back off a bit on surge from Tampa, northward, to 9-13' from the Anclote River to Egmont Key (was 10-15'), but kept the Tampa Bay at 10-15' (not sure why- maybe the angle of approach allows enough of a southerly wind component to push water into the Bay); they also expanded the 10-15' surge forecast south about 15 miles from Englewood to Boca Grande.  

[weatherwiz]

43 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

Pardon my ignorance, but how common is a rainfall event like this in western Florida? I thought they were used to torrential rains from summer thunderstorms, but that does sound exceptional. 

I would have to think extremely uncommon. Rainfall totals could approach or exceed a foot along the landfall swath. Florida certainly isn’t a stranger to intense rainfall rates with summer thunderstorms but keep in mind the duration of those rates isn’t very long and they tend to be localized. This will be widespread and putting a ton of water into areas where there isn’t anywhere to really put it. 

[MANDA]

Updated 11 PM track is about 5-6 miles south of 5 PM.  Not much but it is another nudge south and about 25-30 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay.  We'll see what 00Z guidance does.  Last 6-8 hours the movement has been on the southern side of the GFES/EPS ensemble cluster so even though only a slight adjustment the trend today has been for slight southward adjustments. 

Heed all evacuation orders!

 

[Metasequoia]

10 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Updated 11 PM track is about 5-6 miles south of 5 PM.  Not much but it is another nudge south and about 25-30 miles south of the mouth of Tampa Bay.  We'll see what 00Z guidance does.  Last 6-8 hours the movement has been on the southern side of the GFES/EPS ensemble cluster so even though only a slight adjustment the trend today has been for slight southward adjustments. 

Heed all evacuation orders!

 

The hurricane will likely take a curved path between the waypoint in the middle of Florida and the one in the GOM (not pictured), so perhaps the path is still through Sarasota or north of, which isn't much changed from the last advisory.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have two tweets/images that may be helpful in understanding where we are and where we’re going. 

The first is a hovmoller to understand the gradual expansion of the wind field. Although Milton’s inner core had remained small, the annotated image below makes it clear that the wind field overall has grown over time. This is going to continue as the storm approaches the coast. At this point, major to catastrophic surge is almost certainly set in motion for wherever that maximum zone sets up. It’s why folks under evacuation orders needed to heed those warnings—as I said this morning, we still cannot know the exact landfall zone and as such folks should anticipate the worst and take action now rather than wait until a few hours before landfall. 
 

The second is also very important imo: it’s a cross section of the core. Andy does a great job of pointing out how exceptionally strong and deep this inner core is. 

In a vacuum, this has two implications imo 

1) This kind of core could be quite resilient to increasing shear.

2) This deep a vortex could be more apt to move poleward as it turns NE and feels the influence of the trough.

We’re not in a vacuum however. I think a lot of what happens with track and intensity will depend on when and how long an ERC takes place. It’s still a small core, that can ramp up or down quickly.

An ERC late tomorrow, as shear is increasing, may very well weaken the vortex substantially, leading to a weaker storm that tracks further south. 

If, however, we get an ERC to begin overnight and complete quickly, it would expand the vortex, making it more inertially stable and resistant to shear that arrives when the vortex is less vulnerable, which would potentially hold the intensity at wherever the ERC leaves it, and make jogs north more likely, especially if the convection becomes “weighted” to the northern section.

These aren’t major shifts. But they may make the difference between a landfall at 120mph and maybe 135mph, or south/north of Tampa. 

Just my evening thought. I don’t know which side we’ll end up on. 
 

Edit: for the FL folks, I’m just using Tampa because that’s really the dividing line on center potential. Obviously, a further south impact would be major to catastrophic for Sarasota, Port Charlotte, and even Ft. Meyers if this trends south late, which is possible as well. 

I don't see how this makes it to late tomorrow until an EWRC with a 7mi wide eye.

North she comes.

[CCHurricane]

00Z GFS looks a bit quicker in terms of gaining latitude, yet doesn't look to translate to a further north landfall. Another Bradenton Beach landfall.

00Z ICON brought Tampa landfall back into play.

[Rtd208]

Live storm chasing has three live HazCams up and running.

https://livestormchasing.com/

[Amped]

GFS looks like it's over Bradenton 6z Thursday.

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS looks like it's over Bradenton 6z Thursday.

I don’t know how much to value it but just for trend it’s basically steady state on intensity between now and landfall

[SnowGoose69]

The 00Z GFS/ICON have the worst imaginable tracks if you include wind damage/surge in that Tampa would probably avoid the worst surge but St Pete's east side would be obliterated when all the water that rushes in ahead of the storm then floods them on the NE flow when it makes landfall just south.  Also, St Pete and Western Tampa would probably get into the NRN eyewall

[Windspeed]

It looks like the strong eastern outer band from earlier this evening has merged with the eastern eyewall, and now we have a large feeder spiraling around from the NW into the southern semicircle of a dominant eyewall. Perhaps it was a partial EWRC or just a merger, but recent recon is no longer finding a double wind maxima that is concentric. As such, Milton may begin restrengthening again through the morning hours.

The CDO has actually cooled again the past few hours, and the eye is warming as well..

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I don’t know how much to value it but just for trend it’s basically steady state on intensity between now and landfall

I thought this hurricane was supposed to weaken before landfall due to the shear. Is the shear not going to be as pronounced as originally thought?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

I thought this thing was supposed to weaken due to the shear. 

It should steadily do that all day into tomorrow night.  I think it might still come in as weak as 110-115, NHC's 120-125 at landfall is about at the top end of everything.  The surge definitely will be the main problem with this outside of the immediate areas that get in the eye wall.

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I thought this thing was supposed to weaken due to the shear. 

It will, how much is the question. 

Currently thinking a Siesta Key landfall as a cat 3 (115 mph). 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Prodigious rainfall incoming. 

 

[CCHurricane]

A narrowing of spread on the 00Z GEFS. 

A few members still north of Tampa, with a Venice outcome looking less likely. Goal posts look to be focusing around the Bradenton cluster. 

[ice1972]

2 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Pardon my ignorance, but how common is a rainfall event like this in western Florida? I thought they were used to torrential rains from summer thunderstorms, but that does sound exceptional. 

Its not that Florida isn't used to heavy rain events - the problem is that usually the rain only falls over a small area and only for a short time.......Milton will bring tremendous areal coverage of precip at 2" and 3" per hour rates for hours.......that is a recipe for disaster......the storm drainage systems don't stand a chance.....localized urban flash flooding is a very real threat.....

[schoeppeya]

Eye coming into view on the key west radar

[jrips27]

Eye is begging to show up on Key West radar

[jrips27]

Beginning, even

[TheDreamTraveler]

Seeing this thing still as a category 5 when we're this close to landfall is very concerning. I know it's going to weaken but it really is going to be a nail biter seeing how much it weakens. Intensity forecasts have always been the hardest thing about hurricanes. Forecasting track has gotten exceptionally well over the past 2 decades but intensity still has a lot to work on.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

 

[Windspeed]

Since Key West Radar is just barely picking up the eastern eyewall, here is a zoom in of the last 15 scans or so from the radar out of La Bajada, Cuba.





Here is the most recent scan. Not at PC and my phone is being a pain to upscale the gif resolution, so here...