SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 18Z Euro similar to 12Z...it does continue to take that hard ENE movement late just S of Tampa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowfishin Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Can someone explain the surge situation. I understand the wind driven portion fully but I don’t fully grasp the wall of water that is often referred to by people who witness it first hand. Does the low pressure actually lift an area of water up in the eye above mean sea level? I feel stupid asking this I just don’t grasp fully when people say the surge is there of a cat 5 when the winds have fallen for more than 12 hours to a cat three (hypothetical statement) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 Down to 902mb. It seems more or less steady state, maybe some slight intensification with the continued pressure fall. We’ll see if it can tick below 900 again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Mowfishin said: Can someone explain the surge situation. I understand the wind driven portion fully but I don’t fully grasp the wall of water that is often referred to by people who witness it first hand. Does the low pressure actually lift an area of water up in the eye above mean sea level? I feel stupid asking this I just don’t grasp fully when people say the surge is there of a cat 5 when the winds have fallen for more than 12 hours to a cat three (hypothetical statement) This may be helpful. There are a number of factors that drive surge height. https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/surge_intro.pdf 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Down to 902mb. It seems more or less steady state, maybe some slight intensification with the continued pressure fall. We’ll see if it can tick below 900 again. I guess now its just waiting for another ERC to get going. Something is going to have to give soon for another round of "weakening". I am curious though if this remains steady state and the eye happens to find that blob of warmer water. Some new convection developing southeast side but a tad out from the center. Def fighting that shear too on the northern side 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Over the past hour or so there has been slight warming of the CDO in the SW quadrant but other than that the current presentation is prestine. This reminds me of Dorian at peak intensity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 18Z Euro continues to much slower than the other guidance. Might be the reason it makes the hard right turn while still offshore compared to the GFS. 0Z track guidance just came out on tropical tidbits and looks to be further south than 18Z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I recall with Katrina there was a 15-20 ft surge (not all of it went into L Pontchartrain but enough did so, to stress the levees). But also I recall a 46' wave report about 30 miles east of the track -- so I would urge people to consider that south of landfall, if the hurricane is still at least cat-3, similar results are possible and 10-15 feet of surge could prove to be conservative, with battering waves on top of a (let's say) 15 to 18 ft surge. I am still leaning towards a relatively northward landfall (Clearwater area) but there's no plausible "good" landfall option at this point. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 9 Author Share Posted October 9 Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:20ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: MiltonStorm Number: 14 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 17Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 8th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mbCoordinates: 22.8N 87.0WLocation: 114 statute miles (183 km) to the N (355°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 927mb (27.38 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 155° (from the SSE) 160 knots (184 mph) 925mb 23m (75 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.7°C (76°F) 155° (from the SSE) 169 knots (194 mph) 850mb 766m (2,513 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 22.0°C (72°F) 210° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 23:10Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 22.85N 86.99W- Time: 23:10:35ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 22.93N 86.92W- Time: 23:13:25ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 154 knots (177 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 215° (from the SW)- Wind Speed: 135 knots (155 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 753mb to 926mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)- Wind Speed: 165 knots (190 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 40002 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 927mb (Surface) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 850mb 22.0°C (71.6°F) 22.0°C (72°F) 764mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.4°C (65°F) 758mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 17.3°C (63°F) 750mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) 17.7°C (64°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 927mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 160 knots (184 mph) 926mb 155° (from the SSE) 162 knots (186 mph) 925mb 155° (from the SSE) 170 knots (196 mph) 924mb 155° (from the SSE) 164 knots (189 mph) 922mb 155° (from the SSE) 174 knots (200 mph) 921mb 160° (from the SSE) 178 knots (205 mph) 918mb 160° (from the SSE) 174 knots (200 mph) 913mb 175° (from the S) 149 knots (171 mph) 906mb 185° (from the S) 160 knots (184 mph) 893mb 190° (from the S) 153 knots (176 mph) 879mb 195° (from the SSW) 156 knots (180 mph) 873mb 200° (from the SSW) 147 knots (169 mph) 867mb 200° (from the SSW) 145 knots (167 mph) 850mb 210° (from the SSW) 151 knots (174 mph) 753mb 255° (from the WSW) 144 knots (166 mph) Dropsonde Diagram 0102030401000925850700Temperature (°C)Pressure Level (mb)Dew PointAirWind (kts)Milton (14L)Mission 17 - NOAA2Time: 23:10Z on 8th day of monthObservation Number: 10Location: 22.85N 86.99W 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I guess now its just waiting for another ERC to get going. Something is going to have to give soon for another round of "weakening". I am curious though if this remains steady state and the eye happens to find that blob of warmer water. Some new convection developing southeast side but a tad out from the center. Def fighting that shear too on the northern side Yeah have to think the next 10-12 hours are the best remaining window of higher water temps and lowish shear. Should be solidly over the loop current now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I can’t remember any storms going sub 910 mb twice in their evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: The old front lifting north already has a bunch of supes lined up offshore. Thinking tomorrow could be a prolific producer in the NE quad. Good catch. That's a lot of supercells out front of the storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Posted the is is the banter thread regarding the evolving tornadic setup. Lots of low level shear being caused due to Milton’s insane vortex to the SW 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 OK officially 902 mb. So why haven't the winds fallen with the pressure tonight? Monday Milton had higher winds & pressures than now. And I sincerely apologize for the wrong info earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 https://x.com/nstewwx/status/1843815942264107090?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: OK officially 902 mb. So why haven't the winds fallen with the pressure tonight? Monday Milton had higher winds & pressures than now. And I sincerely apologize for the wrong info earlier. They have-it went to 165mph from 145. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: OK officially 902 mb. So why haven't the winds fallen with the pressure tonight? Monday Milton had higher winds & pressures than now. And I sincerely apologize for the wrong info earlier. In my opinion the winds are higher than nhc has them at, considering the sonde’s and recon data posted above. Those support 180-185mph on the max sustained winds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: They have-it went to 165mph from 145. But last night the winds were 175-180 at these pressures. That's why I'm asking. Especially when he fell from 905 to 902. Thank you @DDweatherman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: But last night the winds were 175-180 at these pressures. That's why I'm asking. Especially when he fell from 905 to 902. The twitter link above also shows the measured 184mph surface wind reading from the drop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12 minutes ago, Normandy said: Posted the is is the banter thread regarding the evolving tornadic setup. Lots of low level shear being caused due to Milton’s insane vortex to the SW Not a good day for tech tycoon billionaires to have their luxury superyatches out there. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 19 minutes ago, Normandy said: Posted the is is the banter thread regarding the evolving tornadic setup. Lots of low level shear being caused due to Milton’s insane vortex to the SW And if that convection in those cells makes it on shore in SW FL - and especially if we get some training - the WPC rainfall forecast is going to be way underdone for SW FL... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Not a good day for tech tycoon billionaires to have their luxury superyatches out there. Brother I count five black swans in the image I posted. If these same conditions are present tomorrow morning there is gonna be a tornado outbreak over FL before the core of the cane comes in. It’s incredible to see these high end hurricanes and what they can do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: But last night the winds were 175-180 at these pressures. That's why I'm asking. Especially when he fell from 905 to 902. Thank you @DDweatherman! I can’t argue against the data, but I will say the size of the eye is larger then last night. Those tiny pin hole eyes often produce the highest winds in respect to pressure. When the WPAC had recon in the past there were many more typhoons (sub 900 though pressures run slightly lower there) that could give you the real answers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 As the speed goes up the force and amount of energy required is insane. We are somewhere around 3/4 the way down this chart. going from 20mph to 40mph is nada compared to going from 140 to 160. or 160 to 180 etc.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 16 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: https://x.com/nstewwx/status/1843815942264107090?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA . Definitely perplexed why we don't have higher winds right now. That's insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The latest center dropsonde shows the pressure is up to 914 mb. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The 165 mph the NHC as it as is fine. There is no evidence this is anything greater than 165 mph. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coalesced Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tides for Sarasota, Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 22Z NDFD wind gust swath across Florida. Impressive swath from around Bradenton to Cocoa Beach. Would spare Orlando the worst of it but will cover a lot of real estate just south of the I4 corridor. Would produce lots of wind damage and horrendous power outages. To say nothing of the powerful gusts along the coast in and around Tampa down to Sarasota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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