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Major Hurricane Milton


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202 
URNT12 KNHC 082136
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL142024
A. 08/21:03:30Z
B. 22.69 deg N 087.44 deg W
C. 700 mb 2277 m
D. 908 mb
E. 340 deg 34 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C10
H. 138 kt
I. 286 deg 7 nm 21:01:30Z
J. 357 deg 137 kt
K. 278 deg 5 nm 21:02:00Z
L. 153 kt
M. 092 deg 7 nm 21:07:00Z
N. 194 deg 159 kt
O. 092 deg 7 nm 21:07:00Z
P. 11 C / 3053 m
Q. 24 C / 3064 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 1614A MILTON    OB 05
MAX FL WIND 159 KT 092 / 7 NM 21:07:00Z

 

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4 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

18Z GFS shifted slightly north, bringing a Tampa Bay mouth landfall back in to the picture.

 

out1.gif

With each passing hour that landfall window becomes more and more locked in. 

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1 minute ago, konksw said:

I’ll believe this weakens as much as models say when I see it. They’ve consistently underestimated the strength. 

I think most of us 2 days ago expected this might make it to a 4, perhaps a 5, so if we assumed it would be 130-140mph now vs the 170 it likely is the expectation of a 110-125 storm at landfall was reasonable.  Its still possible though the shear coupled with another likely ERC means this could weaken significantly on approach

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Just now, MarkO said:

Just checked some of the elevations in the coastal Sarasota area. Much of it is below 10'. Considering the density of the population, this could be more costly than Ian. Hopefully it has time to weaken to a Cat 3.

Sadly that isn’t going to do much to help Sarasota. If the IKE is 60-70 here, this will bring a record breaking surge to whoever is SE of the center. 

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8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I’d think with the angle of approach track adjustments won’t be as drastic as a more southerly approaching storm. With this you’ll need an actual 100 mile south shift to go from Tampa to ft myers, where with a southern approaching storm a 25 mile further east track can be 100 mile difference on the coast where it landfalls. 

Exactly. From the start I've seen a lot of posters on multiple forums (including some pro mets) treating this as if it was another Charley, Irma or Ian situation. IMO that's a dangerous assumption to make with this much different setup, even if the RFQ ultimately does go in south of Tampa Bay.

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29 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Latest track as TPC indicated in 5PM update has been nudged south.  Mainly due to the notable S.E. wobble earlier.

Current track is about 22 miles south of the entrance to Tampa Bay.  Way to soon to call an exact landfall location and any future wobbles especially as we get closer to landfall tomorrow night would have an impact on exact landfall.  Track as it stands now would spare Tampa Bay the worse of the surge.  If current forecast track is close to reality the worst of the surge would be from Siesta Key down toward Fort Myers. Not minimizing in any way the impacts for Tampa area just that current track would keep the max surge out of Tampa Bay.  Watch for wobbles over the next 24 hours.  Serious situation so if told to leave please leave.  Max surge could reach historic levels.  When all is said and done this could be the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S., certainly would be in the top 3 I would think.   It will be affecting larger population centers as it landfalls and then crosses the state of FL.  Power outages will be very widespread and long lasting.

Friends in Boca Grande took a hard hit with Ian.  Surge with this could be just as bad for that area although winds would be less. 

Final track will determine all of this and who gets the worst of it but prepare for something historic if you are in the cone and even south of the cone in case there is another southward adjustment.

Screenshot 2024-10-08 at 5.36.40 PM.jpg

I would be prepared north of the cone, as well...hint, hint.

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Good evening ya'll! Here's a friendly reminder to keep the banter and imby questions out of here and in the appropriate thread.:sun:

 

Also, a shout out to all of our amazing red taggers and knowledgeable hobbyists once again, for all of their excellent discussions. You are all greatly appreciated :wub:  

 

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The NAM is not a tropical model but offers disaster porn by taking a small eye the full length of Tampa Bay to go with 112 kt wind gusts in Tampa. For whatever reason, it doesn't suggest dramatic weakening prior to LF. The GFS is very similar on track and also looking relatively stout at LF. 

nam3.PNG

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HMON is an absolutely terrifying run for central Florida. If this thing is still in the low 900s tomorrow afternoon, the surge forecast is likely underdone, potentially substantially so. 

Looks like it might be heading for a landfall north of Tampa. 

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

HMON 896mb at 09z tonight so far.  HAFS B does look like it might shift closer to the NHC track but its not in far enough yet

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

HMON is an absolutely terrifying run for central Florida. If this thing is still in the low 900s tomorrow afternoon, the surge forecast is likely underdone, potentially substantially so. 

Looks like it might be heading for a landfall north of Tampa. 

Wasn't the HMON the weakest of the hurricane models for a long time with this system? Now HAFS is weaker; maybe the model was so surprised the hurricane actually matched its intensity prediction that it broke.

While I'm on the subject, anyone know the reason the HMON doesn't have a sim IR product like the HWRF and HAFS-A/B; at least one that's available on TT?

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

HMON is an absolutely terrifying run for central Florida. If this thing is still in the low 900s tomorrow afternoon, the surge forecast is likely underdone, potentially substantially so. 

Looks like it might be heading for a landfall north of Tampa. 

Literally rides the northern side of Tampa Bay as well

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1 minute ago, schoeppeya said:

Literally rides the northern side of Tampa Bay as well

Pretty hard to draw up a worse scenario. Concerning because of how well it initialized. 

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6 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Back to a pinhole eye. Not something you typically see with consecutively after two EWRCs. 

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles

Does like maybe the beginnings of a new outer eyewall/secondary wind max as well?

 

image.png.6dd5a0ffd1208f5d9d56707e0e3c2075.png

 

 

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Taking all of today's developments into consideration, IMO there seems to be a reasonably good consensus that:

A.) There's a higher likelihood than not that Tampa Bay avoids getting right-front-quadded with a worst-case surge scenario. However, it's far from a guarantee. Such an outcome would be well within the forecast margin of error.

B.) Even if the center does go south of the bay, it's likely to be waaaaay too close for comfort and will bring significant wind, rain and surge impacts to a large part, if not all of the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater/Bradenton area. It's impossible to determine at this point where within that area receives the heaviest impacts. Therefore, no one within that area should be taking a victory lap or heading home from their evacuation spot because they read on the Internet that "the cone shifted south" or whatever. At the coast, the 5PM cone goes from about Crystal River to North Naples, and that's just the range of uncertainty for the center track. It says right at the top of the graphic, "Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone."

Disclaimer: I'm not a professional meteorologist, just a guy who likes tracking hurricanes and is a chaser (with a mediocre at best success rate) of land-based severe convective weather.

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1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Taking all of today's developments into consideration, IMO there seems to be a reasonably good consensus that:

A.) There's a higher likelihood than not that Tampa Bay avoids getting right-front-quadded with a worst-case surge scenario. However, it's far from a guarantee. Such an outcome is well within the model/NHC forecast margin of error (See point [B]).

B.) Even if the center does go south of the bay, it's likely to be waaaaay too close for comfort and will bring significant wind, rain and surge impacts to a large part, if not all of the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater/Bradenton area. It's impossible to determine at this point where within that area receives the heaviest impacts. Therefore, no one within that area should be taking a victory lap or heading home from their evacuation spot because they read on the Internet that "the cone shifted south" or whatever. At the coast, the [url=https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212734.shtml?cone#contents]5PM cone[/url] goes from about Crystal River to North Naples, and that's just the range of uncertainty for the center track. It says right at the top of the graphic, "Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone."

Disclaimer: I'm not a professional meteorologist, just a guy who likes tracking hurricanes and is a chaser (with a mediocre at best success rate) of land-based severe convective weather.

It is pretty simple, if you are in the cone of uncertainty and on the shore/in a flood zone, your life is in danger if you stay. If you choose not to evacuate and you are in one of these areas, write your name and social security number on your forearm in sharpie. 

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I think it's noteworthy that all 4 18z hurricane models trended at least slightly (in some cases ever so slightly) to the south vs. their 12z runs. 

I sure wouldn't want to be at Bradenton Beach or on Longboat Key this time tomorrow. 

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