Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Major Hurricane Milton


Recommended Posts

Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ. It is now forecasted to intensify to 70 TJ just prior to landfall.

For point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 was only 12 TJ.

If the current track and intensity forecast verifies then the 60 mile stretch of coastline and particularly the barrier islands from Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor are going to get rocked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Updated intensity:

 

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...

Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has 
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches).  The aircraft 
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are 
near 165 mph (270 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ. It is now forecasted to intensify to 70 TJ just prior to landfall.

For point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 was only 12 TJ.

If the current track and intensity forecast verifies then the 60 mile stretch of coastline and particularly the barrier islands from Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor are going to get rocked.

And Rita was a 30 and we all remember that surge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. 

If I'm not mistaken that is the typical air pressure at 1 mile of elevation 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. 

potentially more damaging than the pressure, would be the HAFS-A / HAFS-B / HWRF track, which continue to be on the northern side of the model suite. A Clearwater / Treasure Island vs. Bradenton landfall will make a significant difference those within the Tampa Bay waterways. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

144kt surface wind NW dropsonde. 150kt average over lowest 150m.

 

Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Is that correct, NW eyewall? That’s an impressive reading in the NW quad if that’s correct. Since winds are much more intense in NE quad, that would make me believe winds are around 180-185.

SE eyewall, NE winds, that sonde got blown around and went for a ride.

image.thumb.png.2f0548912f30d95bb5ab2504d3adc5d7.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest track as TPC indicated in 5PM update has been nudged south.  Mainly due to the notable S.E. wobble earlier.

Current track is about 22 miles south of the entrance to Tampa Bay.  Way to soon to call an exact landfall location and any future wobbles especially as we get closer to landfall tomorrow night would have an impact on exact landfall.  Track as it stands now would spare Tampa Bay the worse of the surge.  If current forecast track is close to reality the worst of the surge would be from Siesta Key down toward Fort Myers. Not minimizing in any way the impacts for Tampa area just that current track would keep the max surge out of Tampa Bay.  Watch for wobbles over the next 24 hours.  Serious situation so if told to leave please leave.  Max surge could reach historic levels.  When all is said and done this could be the costliest hurricane to strike the U.S., certainly would be in the top 3 I would think.   It will be affecting larger population centers as it landfalls and then crosses the state of FL.  Power outages will be very widespread and long lasting.

Friends in Boca Grande took a hard hit with Ian.  Surge with this could be just as bad for that area although winds would be less. 

Final track will determine all of this and who gets the worst of it but prepare for something historic if you are in the cone and even south of the cone in case there is another southward adjustment.

Screenshot 2024-10-08 at 5.36.40 PM.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’d think with the angle of approach track adjustments won’t be as drastic as a more southerly approaching storm. With this you’ll need an actual 100 mile south shift to go from Tampa to ft myers, where with a southern approaching storm a 25 mile further east track can be 100 mile difference on the coast where it landfalls. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...