Brian5671 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's going to be an interesting night of competing forces: increasingly favorable forcing from the entrance region of the subtropical jet vs. gradually increasing shear values. The storm is moving in the same direction as the shear however....should mitigate some of that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's going to be an interesting night of competing forces: increasingly favorable forcing from the entrance region of the subtropical jet vs. gradually increasing shear values. The overall structure looks solid right now. Not seeing any issues of shear or dry air like last night. I think it's all systems go until about 10am tomorrow and then it will level out and slowly weaken. That said the damage may already be done. The amount of weakening is probably being overplayed too IMO. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The overall structure looks solid right now. Not seeing any issues of shear or dry air like last night. I think it's all systems go until about 10am tomorrow and then it will level out and slowly weaken. That said the damage may already be done. The amount of weakening is probably being overplayed too IMO. The weakening was always overplayed IMO. It takes more than that to kill a hurricane like Milton. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Here's a good map of the OHC with the track overlayed. That hotspot will pull Milton North. $50 says landfall is 2 Miles NW Tampa Bay. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Latest visible loop: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop90.html Looks every bit as good as yesterday and it is gaining latitude last 2 hours. Turn toward the NE is getting started. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Yea this thing is in free fall again… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17 minutes ago, beanskip said: So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end. Will be interesting to see the official track at 5. Maybe my memory is bad but weren’t they really only about 30 miles west of the other guidance with Helene? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 16 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Here's a good map of the OHC with the track overlayed. Thank you for sharing — but why is there no data around the Yucatán or the west coast of Florida? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The storm is moving in the same direction as the shear however....should mitigate some of that? Yes, generally speaking, a shear vector aligned with the steering current is less detrimental, esp. in a case where you've got baroclinic forcing helping. It works up to a point. Michael had a good 20-25kt of shear for instance (if I'm recalling correctly). It won't stop 35+ knots of shear from being detrimental of course, but can effectively increase the threshold of viability. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe my memory is bad but weren’t they really only about 30 miles west of the other guidance with Helene? 50-75. Most models went over AHN in GA they were at times along the GA/AL Border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 50-75. Most models went over AHN in GA they were at times along the GA/AL Border Correct and it was the isolation of the spaghetti plots/NHC track vs. ... pretty much every other model, that was so stark. Allan Huffman captured it well (and this wasn't even the westernmost NHC landfall point). https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, beanskip said: Correct and it was the isolation of the spaghetti plots/NHC track vs. ... pretty much every other model, that was so start. Allan Huffman captured it well (and this wasn't even the westernmost NHC landfall point). https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138 I am wondering if perhaps these hurricane models overreact to wobbles or the system deviating out of the cone. I cannot recall if Helene had multiple occasions of being N or W of the cone or not, obviously the 6 hour cone position is not huge so the system deviating out of it might not impact track at 36-48. But now the storm is E-S of the cone so not sure that led to the 18Z guidance being south whereas global models are not as sensitive. Would have to ask someone who is way more modeling experienced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The eye is really contracting again... I wonder if we will see another EWRC and intensification phase while conditions are still very favorable tonight into tomorrow morning 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 17 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Thank you for sharing — but why is there no data around the Yucatán or the west coast of Florida? Shelf waters are too shallow to derive OHC, at least by their methodology. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: The eye is really contracting again... I wonder if we will see another EWRC and intensification phase while conditions are still very favorable tonight into tomorrow morning I’m sorry but I am not seeing the eye contracting currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I’m sorry but I am not seeing the eye contracting currently. Don't be sorry, I am wrong all the time! ETA: I measured and youre right its pretty stable in size right now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 41 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The overall structure looks solid right now. Not seeing any issues of shear or dry air like last night. I think it's all systems go until about 10am tomorrow and then it will level out and slowly weaken. That said the damage may already be done. The amount of weakening is probably being overplayed too IMO. I am seeing some minor shear effects, no dry air effects on recent IR scans. Shear vector is well enough aligned to storm motion and shear as analyzed is minor to moderate...but non-zero. At the moment the coldest convection is down shear of the the eye which means mass dumping in the eye is inferior to the strongest convection being dumped into the eye though still occurring. Clouds SW of the eye are a bit warmer than NE and have been watching that trend for a bit now. Certainly agree on lack of dry air issues. Meso vortices are visible on zoomed in high res sat imagery so the mixing of momentum and energy concentration in eyewall is fine. Does not appear to be RIing currently, seems like weak steady strengthening mixed with periods of steady state atm. Eye temp is warming, slowly. The Dvorak 910s to maybe 905 seem about right. In fairness to Milton...it is hard to RI when you're close to the mathematical maximum intensity for your environment. Curved bands look good. MMUN radar shows a generally closed eye with a couple open blips on a few frames, with the next outer band potentially showing opening to the north (this is where HH are key - beam height/attenuation/distance etc may preclude optimal viewing of the band opposite to eyewall as seen by MMUN radar). Together, I would bet on marginal strengthening to steady state atm but another impressive presentation in general. Hurricane hunters were 70 nm out from eye, at reporting time 22:42, traveling at 251 kts. 16 mins from the eye at that speed, so a nice close shave and a haircut. Do they make it!?! *Grabs popcorn* 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Latest recon just getting into the storm so we should get some up to the minute data on Milton over the next 15-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Even without waiting on recon, the NHC could easily re-upgrade Milton to Category 5 for the 4PM CDT/5PM EDT advisory. Though recon is descending to operational altitude, the forecaster has all of the satellite intensity estimate support to at least bump it up to 160-165. ADT supports ~150 kts even if they went much more conservative than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I'll think we'll be surprised just how strong it is. To me it has a more impressive appearance than yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Center of the storm is picked up by Cuban radar now. (Not terribly well but it is there) http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I am seeing some minor shear effects, no dry air effects on recent IR scans. Shear vector is well enough aligned to storm motion and shear as analyzed is minor to moderate...but non-zero. At the moment the coldest convection is down shear of the the eye which means mass dumping in the eye is inferior to the strongest convection being dumped into the eye though still occurring. Clouds SW of the eye are a bit warmer than NE and have been watching that trend for a bit now. Certainly agree on lack of dry air issues. Meso vortices are visible on zoomed in high res sat imagery so the mixing of momentum and energy concentration in eyewall is fine. Does not appear to be RIing currently, seems like weak steady strengthening mixed with periods of steady state atm. Eye temp is warming, slowly. The Dvorak 910s to maybe 905 seem about right. In fairness to Milton...it is hard to RI when you're close to the mathematical maximum intensity for your environment. Curved bands look good. MMUN radar shows a generally closed eye with a couple open blips on a few frames, with the next outer band potentially showing opening to the north (this is where HH are key - beam height/attenuation/distance etc may preclude optimal viewing of the band opposite to eyewall as seen by MMUN radar). Together, I would bet on marginal strengthening to steady state atm but another impressive presentation in general. Those are great points. It is to a point where even if all systems are go, it may already be maxed out from an atmospheric perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Is that one massive feeder band? Or another feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 Location: 22.7°N 87.5°W Moving: ENE at 9 mph Min pressure: 918 mb Max sustained: 165 mph We are back to Cat 5! 13 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 34 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Thank you for sharing — but why is there no data around the Yucatán or the west coast of Florida? Yeah, the calculation factors in the depth of the warmer waters. I'm assuming the shelf waters are just excluded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Back to Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 https://x.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1843704758282137649?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Charlotte Harbor up to 8-12' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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