StormChazer Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just keeps looking better and better on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 EPS mean track over Longboat Key late Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Full on donut 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Full on donut I fully expected recon to find a significantly strengthened storm when we get a plane in there. Beauty. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I fully expected recon to find a significantly strengthened storm when we get a plane in there. Beauty. The plane just got there. https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The plane just got there. https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49 That's an upper level dropsonde mission. Looks like an AF recon plane just took off, should be there in an hour or two. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 Well…it speaks for itself. As good a look as anything yesterday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 As we wait for recon flights here is the ADT history over the last 12 hours. ADT91 LIST 14L.ODT CKZ=YES ===== ADT-Version 9.1 ===== ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature- Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon 2024OCT08 061020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.9 6.7 5.8 0.5T/hour ON FLG OFF OFF -68.64 -75.85 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.16 90.04 2024OCT08 064020 7.7 896.7 161.0 6.7 6.6 6.0 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -74.43 -78.44 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.00 89.56 2024OCT08 071020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.7 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -70.52 -78.87 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.15 89.35 2024OCT08 074020 7.6 899.7 158.0 6.6 6.8 5.9 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -73.65 -77.17 EMBC N/A 84.8 22.15 89.57 2024OCT08 081020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.9 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -68.07 -78.98 EMBC N/A 78.5 22.21 89.13 2024OCT08 084020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.7 6.9 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG OFF OFF -68.76 -78.17 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.22 89.06 2024OCT08 091020 7.7 896.6 161.0 6.8 7.0 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -67.17 -77.76 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.30 88.90 2024OCT08 094020 7.6 899.6 158.0 6.8 6.9 5.5 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -68.53 -77.65 UNIFRM N/A 78.5 22.34 88.80 2024OCT08 101020 7.5 902.5 155.0 6.8 6.8 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -66.73 -78.66 EMBC N/A 75.0 22.37 88.90 2024OCT08 104020 7.3 908.4 149.0 6.8 6.6 6.1 0.7T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF -67.28 -78.44 EMBC N/A 75.0 22.40 88.80 2024OCT08 111020 7.0 916.9 140.0 6.9 7.3 7.4 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -25.45 -77.72 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.43 88.79 2024OCT08 114020 7.0 916.9 140.0 6.9 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -25.94 -76.95 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.47 88.71 2024OCT08 121020 7.0 916.9 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -25.32 -77.04 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.48 88.69 2024OCT08 124020 7.0 916.9 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -25.55 -76.75 EYE/P -99 IR 75.0 22.48 88.62 2024OCT08 131020 7.1 914.1 143.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -27.12 -76.51 EYE/P -99 IR 58.2 22.49 88.60 2024OCT08 134020 7.1 914.2 143.0 7.0 6.5 5.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -71.99 -76.10 UNIFRM N/A 58.2 22.23 88.47 2024OCT08 141020 7.1 914.1 143.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF -54.89 -74.76 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.43 88.60 2024OCT08 144020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.8 6.5 5.2 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -58.42 -73.95 UNIFRM N/A 58.2 22.47 88.55 2024OCT08 151020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.7 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -49.48 -73.51 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.50 88.45 2024OCT08 154020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -34.11 -74.37 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.41 88.52 2024OCT08 161020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -36.56 -75.20 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.45 88.37 2024OCT08 165020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -38.67 -74.51 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.46 88.36 2024OCT08 171020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.5 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -14.98 -74.80 EYE 12 IR 58.2 22.45 88.24 2024OCT08 174020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.7 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.62 -76.18 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.41 88.17 2024OCT08 181020 7.1 914.1 143.0 6.8 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 2.70 -77.16 EYE -99 IR 58.2 22.43 88.05 2024OCT08 184020 7.1 915.1 143.0 7.0 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.09 -76.69 EYE 13 IR 58.2 22.48 87.96 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 9 minutes ago, TPAwx said: EPS mean track over Longboat Key late Thursday morning That's every global model showing landfall within about 10 miles. Amazing agreement, this didn't used to happen. Even 10 years back models would have a much larger spread 36 hrs out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 As the thread starts heating up again try not quoting any imagery with quick reactions. If your commenting and contributing to some meaningful type of analysis, then fine. Otherwise it's going to disappear. There is already enough scrolling as it is. 15 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly, I’m just saying the worst truly catastrophic damage will be in the Sarasota area. Milton will also have a swath of inland wind damage right through Orlanda basically paralleling the developed interior of Florida. Lido Key and St Armands Circle in a bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 damn, raw ADT’s up to 7.7 and 896mb. Sat imagery is top notch at the moment. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: damn, raw ADT’s up to 7.7 and 896mb. Sat imagery is top notch at the moment. I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker. What does CI mean on the ADT readout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: I'm not seeing that. I do see a raw of 7.6, final of 7.1 and CI of 7.1 with 915 mb estimate though. I'm looking at ADTv9.1 provided by UW-CIMSS. NOAA's ADTv9.0 is weaker. Yeah these satellite estimates only take you so far. I’m looking forward to recon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Euro has peak intensity around 10am tomorrow. Before leveling off and then slowly weakening tomorrow afternoon/evening on approach. So we may have another interesting night lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just a little bit of fun math. Currently the latest AF H hunter AC fix distance to the latest CIMISS ADT estimated center fix, is 455 nm. The WC-130J can fly at a maximum cruising speed of 360 kts, but will likely average closer to 300. The storm is moving NE, 9 knots at heading 52 degrees according to ADT, while most recent NHC motion is ENE. Integrating this together, assuming the ac has about 450 nm to fly, it's slightly under 1.5 hours ish from the first eye dropsonde (it took a few mins to compute this). This should put it there just before the 4PM CDT advisory. Edit at 19:55Z - they're currently getting a small tailwind and are cruising at 360 kts, which is as noted close to max cruise speed. They're also now down to about 320(ish) nm, which, combined, leads to about the same arrival time (before the 4PM advisory). 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Starting its NE jog on the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Sustained and very intense lightning in the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It's definitely picking up a bit of pace and heading NE. It's feeling the tug of the trough. This is also apparent in the prominent banding to the NE. As it clears the Yucatan completely and enters the extremely deep/warm waters of the loop current, this where it could reach that 2nd max potential. This is where Katrina built up its immense surge. If you're in the cone and near the coastline, get da hell out. The west coast of FL may have never seen a storm like this one. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, HKY_WX said: If you're in the cone and near the coastline, get da hell out. The west coast of FL may have never seen a storm like this one. Coastline is somewhat relative. Can we please say, if local officials recommend or mandate it in your immediate area? Remember some of us are 50ft to 100ft above sea level in Clearwater. Edit: not pointing fingers, but it is very stressful to have others saying "get out!!!!!" My phone has been blowing up with texts from panickying people everywhere. Makes decision-making even harder, and we have family members we're responsible for. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Lows here in the Carolinas tonight dipping into the upper 40s. That front is certainly going to be tugging Milton more NE in the coming hours. You can really start to see it in the orientation of the moisture where Milton wants to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 13 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: What does CI mean on the ADT readout? Raw T# - determined using the current scene Adj T# - basic constraint limit rules applied Fnl T# - adjusted value average of the last 3 hours CI# - average of the last 3 hours and with the full suite of rules applied ADT User Manual 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, goctican said: Coastline is somewhat relative. Can we please say, if local officials recommend or mandate it in your immediate area? Remember some of us are 50ft to 100ft above sea level in Clearwater. Definitely listen to the local officials, not some weenies on a message board. 1 1 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: Raw T# - determined using the current scene Adj T# - with basic constraint limit rules applied Fnl T# - adjusted value average of the last 3 hours CI# - average of the last 3 hours and with the full suite of rules applied ADT User Manual I’m asking because that’s where 7.7 is coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Early 18z tropical models tugged a bit south. Would put Port Charlotte to Fort Myers in a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end. Will be interesting to see the official track at 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Here's a good map of the OHC with the track overlayed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Euro has peak intensity around 10am tomorrow. Before leveling off and then slowly weakening tomorrow afternoon/evening on approach. So we may have another interesting night lol. It's going to be an interesting night of competing forces: increasingly favorable forcing from the entrance region of the subtropical jet vs. gradually increasing shear values. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end. Will be interesting to see the official track at 5. Difference this time is the globals and the HWRF are not in disagreement as much from those models as they were last time 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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