Major Hurricane Milton

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro ticked slightly S of the last few runs with a Bradenton to just S of Tampa track. The 0Z went right over Tampa. Every tick S helps Tampa Bay for surge and maybe winds somewhat but rainfall may be worse.

[Windspeed]

Nice post by Webb on Milton's structural evolution, EWRC overnight, and vorticity merger.

[CCHurricane]

Will be interesting to see if Milton follows the same model trends that Helene did.

For Helene, I believe the hurricane models consistently showed a further west landfall than the Operational ones, with the NHC stubbornly sticking by the more west track (despite Helene being outside the cone of uncertainty as it approached landfall).

Wonder if we’ll see the same Hurricane Model bias, which is somewhat already beginning to show, with Clearwater / St. Pete still in play vs. the Operational shift to the south.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

Will be interesting to see if Milton follows the same model trends that Helene did.

For Helene, I believe the hurricane models consistently showed a further west landfall than the Operational ones, with the NHC stubbornly sticking by the more west track (despite Helene being outside the cone of uncertainty as it approached landfall).

Wonder if we’ll see the same Hurricane Model bias, which is somewhat already beginning to show, with Clearwater / St. Pete still in play vs. the Operational shift to the south.

The HWRF/HMON/HAFs were with the globals, it was the NHC cane models on the spaghetti plots that were way west

[Amped]

Hurricane models actually did a good job forecasting an ERC and multiple intensity peaks. Dorian actually did a similar thing. Maybe not an ERC, but there was a pause in the intensification for almost a day.

[Windspeed]

Eye continues to clear as evident in the ongoing temperature spike within the eye.

[NeonPeon]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The last several scans are jaw dropping. Was looking at the IR one second and look over like 5 minutes later to see rapid developing of convection, convection wrapping around, and the eye clearing out...yikes. 

It also seems to me like the storm is not necessarily fighting the stronger wind shear to the north but its structuring itself to avoid the shear or have the shear lessen its influence...wild. 

The fact that the core of this storm is so small seems to help it. Most storms would be struggling with the constraints to the NW.

[hawkeye_wx]

924 mb, per the latest dropsonde.

[NJwx85]

12z HMON CAT 3 approaching landfall. Storm is intensifying on final approach too.

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

This is a remarkable Post-ERC recovery. Milton should begin undergoing intense, rapid pressure falls once again within the next few hours.

[wxeyeNH]

I'm looking for that ENE turn to begin. I would thought it would have started by now.  If the hurricane were to stay south of the projected path I would assume that increases the chances of a landfall slightly further south?  Thoughts?

[AccuChris]

Absolutely looking textbook again


.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HMON CAT 3 approaching landfall. Storm is intensifying on final approach too.

 

I think it’s too early to say if the storm will be weakening as it comes onshore. As we’ve seen the dry air/shear impacts are hard to predict. We’ve seen them disrupt the hurricanes more than expected but it’s the same the other way around especially since on its way in it’ll be moving over jet fuel SSTs. People might be hearing “it’s supposed to weaken” and deciding to stay which would be a BIG mistake. 

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HMON CAT 3 approaching landfall. Storm is intensifying on final approach too.

 

That’s a tough solution there. The goal posts have pretty much been set from just north of Tampa to Sarasota it appears as of now.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[beanskip]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HMON CAT 3 approaching landfall. Storm is intensifying on final approach too.

 

The only 1 of the 4 hurricane models that doesn't show pre-landfall weakening, it should be noted. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

Wow, this is something. This area has been mostly spared for decades which I am sure has aided in the massive growth of development.

Most major hurricanes which make landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast travel through the Florida Straits or up from the Western Caribbean. So they have tended to track toward either SW Florida like Ian and Charley or the Panhandle and Big Bend like Michael or Helene. It’s extremely rare to get in intense hurricane form near the BOC like Milton and strengthen while tracking eastward. Most storms which had been on more of an eastward heading toward the Central FL Gulf Coast near Sarasota or Tampa have been weaker systems. So this area hasn’t had something this strong since before it was so heavily developed. 

[dan11295]

Looking at the 12Z models the Euro is noticeable slower than the rest and the current NHC forecast with landfall 6 hours later (approx. 7 am Thursday) I wonder why it's so slow.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Still passes over the current, just not in the loop itself. Regardless water temps the whole way can easily support a major and aren’t really the biggest factor here. That will be eventual shear/dry air. I like how the NHC mentions last minute baroclinic fourcing. That’s where you develope that potential sting jet that may bring wind damage further inland then normal as you aren’t relying on the thunderstorms in the eyewall to produce strong winds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Milton was probably ready to take off earlier, but perhaps a bit of a hostile environment relatively speaking. But as usual in weather, once you tweak a few things here or there, it can be off to the races. So in this case, perhaps a bit less shear and a higher RH environment was all it needed. I know models did show strengthening. 

Maybe out running a trough a bit and getting over the loop current. This is the window that I hilighted for RI on Saturday....yesterday's Rita redux threw me for a loop.

[Windspeed]

 
 

Based on the projected forward motion of Milton as it crosses the eastern GOM, the loop current is kind of an overrated feature. It's not going to be moving slow enough that depth of 26°C isotherm really matters. SSTs are pretty much 29°C near the surface for the remainder of its track and pushing 30°C over the shelf west of the Florida shoreline.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

The storm is tracking over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico in early October. It's basically bath water either way.  

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Eye continues to clear as evident in the ongoing temperature spike within the eye.

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe out running a trough a bit and getting over the loop current. This is the window that I hilighted for RI on Saturday....yesterday's Rita redux threw me for a loop.

I think the skyrocketing temperature graph above says it all. Like @CoastalWxsaid, sometimes you just need to tweak conditions to change the outcome and there’s no doubt Milton is intensifying right now given the recon data and increasingly impressive satellite presentation.

Yesterday was surprising, but today is where we could see that peak barring an ERC at this point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I think the skyrocketing temperature graph above says it all. Like @CoastalWxsaid, sometimes you just need to tweak conditions to change the outcome and there’s no doubt Milton is intensifying right now given the recon data and increasingly impressive satellite presentation.

Yesterday was surprising, but today is where we could see that peak barring an ERC at this point. 

If it beats yesterday's peak, I'll show up at the SNE xmas gathering with @WxWatcher007shaved into my chest.

[Windspeed]

Here is the most recent profile of GOM SSTs. Consider that Milton is currently reintensifying over a shallow shelf north of the Yucatán where immediate shallow layer SSTs are still ~29°C. Milton's core will move over regions of 30°C and slightly higher several times prior to landfall. Though there had been a PRE and a lot of storminess over these areas the past 24-36 hours, the thermal content near the surface simply isn't going to be an issue for Milton. It's the atmospheric dynamics at play and Milton's internal evolution of structure that will dictate its landfall intensity.

[WxWatcher007]

Definitely worth a watch.

 

[schoeppeya]

Almost perfect IR presentation again. I don't think we will get there but just given the overall look I wouldn't be shocked if we make a run at yesterdays numbers. 

[Windspeed]

I don't know if this was shared yesterday or last night, but to say Milton's high-end intensity on an eastward motion is anomolous is quite an understatement. It would have been an anomaly as a Category 4. But for it to have attained Category 5 while moving ESE had never been seen before in HURDAT records.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/catastrophic-surge-event-likely-for.html

[bugalou]

40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The storm is tracking over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico in early October. It's basically bath water either way.  

Especially with the winds mixing it all up from the storm itself. I don't think its going to make any difference in strength either way.