Windspeed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Interesting maneuvering by recon on this last pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Uptick in lightning surrounding the whole eyewall now too, adding evidence to the idea it may be strengthening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Milton is beginning another Rapid Intensification process. Should shear continue to relax, this will be Milton’s last chance at making a run at peak intensity. Milton starting to move over a warm eddie. Should be over this warm eddie for the next several hours. Later today into the evening and overnight, Milton will be over the Gulf Loop Current. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Latest recon in the past 30 mins found 925mb . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12Z GFS Landfall about 2 or 3 miles south of 06Z position. Southern Tampa Bay 972mb vs 968mb 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12z GFS landfall Holmes Beach early Thursday AM. High 950s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I think i'll go with landfall near Anna Marie FL. Pressure 935mb. Wind Speed 130mph. Peak surge from Anna Marie to Siesta Key up to 20ft. Perhaps isolated areas with more. Enough water is going to be pushed into Tampa Bay that areas of Pinellas county will still have major problems. Perhaps more so on the Bay side. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Per the official 15Z NHC update Milton's IKE is currently 22 TJ and expected to increase to 63 TJ just prior to landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I just spent some time looking at the coast on google earth in the Sarasota area (ground zero for surge in my opinion) and there is an incredible amount of development in very precarious locations. Huge condo buildings right on the gulf. With 15’ of surge and huge battering waves on top catastrophic damage is likely. This isn’t a Michael and Mexico beach, you have thousands of Mexico beaches. That’s why I think this has the potential to be the costliest hurricane in US history. 200-300 billion 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I think i'll go with landfall near Anna Marie FL. Pressure 935mb. Wind Speed 130mph. Peak surge from Anna Marie to Siesta Key up to 20ft. Perhaps isolated areas with more. Enough water is going to be pushed into Tampa Bay that areas of Pinellas county will still have major problems. Perhaps more so on the Bay side. I think that’s a pretty good call. AMI, Longboat and Siesta were devastated by Helene and this will takeout a lot of what’s left. I’m thinking landfall is a bit further south between Bradenton Beach and Siesta Key. Tho will be watching HAFS-B intently, it’s been persistent with TB landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I just spent some time looking at the coast on google earth in the Sarasota area (ground zero for surge in my opinion) and there is an incredible amount of development in very precarious locations. Huge condo buildings right on the gulf. With 15’ of surge and huge battering waves on top catastrophic damage is likely. This isn’t a Michael and Mexico beach, you have thousands of Mexico beaches. That’s why I think this has the potential to be the costliest hurricane in US history. 200-300 billion Just about anywhere north of Marco Island is very heavily developed and in really bad places for surge. Bradenton/Sarasota by itself is over 100K people. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coalesced Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 High tide (-2.5ft) for the region is -430am Thursday. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 24 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Milton is beginning another Rapid Intensification process. Should shear continue to relax, this will be Milton’s last chance at making a run at peak intensity. Milton starting to move over a warm eddie. Should be over this warm eddie for the next several hours. Later today into the evening and overnight, Milton will be over the Gulf Loop Current. I don't think it's possible for this hurricane to rapidly intensify, by the meteorological definition, or even as a loose descriptor, thankfully, unless it had weakened more. It's too close to its ceiling. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I just spent some time looking at the coast on google earth in the Sarasota area (ground zero for surge in my opinion) and there is an incredible amount of development in very precarious locations. Huge condo buildings right on the gulf. With 15’ of surge and huge battering waves on top catastrophic damage is likely. This isn’t a Michael and Mexico beach, you have thousands of Mexico beaches. That’s why I think this has the potential to be the costliest hurricane in US history. 200-300 billion Wouldn’t it be closer to Ian ($113 billion)? The Sarasota metro area has about the same population as the Ft. Myers area. Or are you thinking higher because Tampa will still get bad flooding even with the forecast track to the south of the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The latest dropsonde is back down to 926 mb. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Just about anywhere north of Marco Island is very heavily developed and in really bad places for surge. Bradenton/Sarasota by itself is over 100K people. Yeah, the coastal development has been very high in those areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said: Wouldn’t it be closer to Ian ($113 billion)? The Sarasota metro area has about the same population as the Ft. Myers area. Or are you thinking higher because Tampa will still get bad flooding even with the forecast track to the south of the bay? Exactly, I’m just saying the worst truly catastrophic damage will be in the Sarasota area. Milton will also have a swath of inland wind damage right through Orlanda basically paralleling the developed interior of Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I hate to go all IMBY (or specifically in-laws back yard), but given that the track is tucked in just S of TB, does the surge forecast seem shifted a little too far north here? Specifically I am wondering about Port Charlotte. With an expanding wind field, how far down would the max surge extend? (and again, wouldn't it extend further S than N?) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the coastal development has been very high in those areas. Wow, this is something. This area has been mostly spared for decades which I am sure has aided in the massive growth of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 19 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said: Wouldn’t it be closer to Ian ($113 billion)? The Sarasota metro area has about the same population as the Ft. Myers area. Or are you thinking higher because Tampa will still get bad flooding even with the forecast track to the south of the bay? One big difference is even if it does landfall around Sarasota and spares TB of the surge, the northern eyewall will still rake the sprawling Tampa metro of 3.2 million people with probably 100+ mph winds. While it may not be catastrophic damage, the widespread power outages and minor structural damage can add up quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: One big difference is even if it does landfall around Sarasota and spares TB of the surge, the northern eyewall will still rake the sprawling Tampa metro of 3.2 million people with probably 100+ mph winds. While it may not be catastrophic damage, the widespread power outages and minor structural damage can add up quickly. Depends, it may be hooking somewhat hard at LF so I think if it comes in over SRQ its probably missing metro TB, if it comes in N of metro Sarasota then definitely it could hit eastern side of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: One big difference is even if it does landfall around Sarasota and spares TB of the surge, the northern eyewall will still rake the sprawling Tampa metro of 3.2 million people with probably 100+ mph winds. While it may not be catastrophic damage, the widespread power outages and minor structural damage can add up quickly. Agreed on this, and the fact that if this does hit right on the edge of the southside TB or Sarasota, out in front the flow will still throw a substantial amount of water up into TB itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Depends, it may be hooking somewhat hard at LF so I think if it comes in over SRQ its probably missing metro TB, if it comes in N of metro Sarasota then definitely it could hit eastern side of the metro It's hard to definitively say there will be any "hard" hook, and even if so, I think we're about 12 hours from really knowing the LF point within 25 miles. I do think I'm weighing my forecast on the COC being pulled north of progs by the asymmetry of the storm nearing landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 25 minutes ago, hooralph said: I hate to go all IMBY (or specifically in-laws back yard), but given that the track is tucked in just S of TB, does the surge forecast seem shifted a little too far north here? Specifically I am wondering about Port Charlotte. With an expanding wind field, how far down would the max surge extend? (and again, wouldn't it extend further S than N?) I am wondering the same thing about Venice and Englewood. Hopefully the next update will bring more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 There is pretty low spread in the 12z tracks so far. GFS, Ukmet, Icon , Jma and even the cmc all track over Longboat Key from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, Amped said: There is pretty low spread in the 12z tracks so far. GFS, Ukmet, Icon , Jma and even the cmc all track over Longboat Key from what I can tell. Longboat Key would be really bad for Sarasota, maybe as far south as Charlotte Harbor/Punta Gorda with surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, Amped said: There is pretty low spread in the 12z tracks so far. GFS, Ukmet, Icon , Jma and even the cmc all track over Longboat Key from what I can tell. HAFS-B still wants to ride the north side of the bay but the hurricane models are becoming outliers on that at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Another pass at 925 mb. Meanwhile, 12z HAFS-B showing considerably more weakening near landfall vs. 6z run. Up about 10 mb run over run in last few hours before landfall. EDIT: Same with HAFS-B, but HMON is actually stronger vs. 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Watching a hurricane physically push out dry air away from its core is mesmerizing to watch. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Longboat Key would be really bad for Sarasota, maybe as far south as Charlotte Harbor/Punta Gorda with surge. I was down in Sarasota this past spring. The bay there is very high even just at high tide. The entire downtown will be underwater. the construction downtown is pretty new so I would imagine structural damage would be limited even with cat 3 winds. That’s one saving grace, most of the development on the west coast is new and in accordance with the better building codes. Obviously the immediately shoreline will be wrecked, but the newer construction should be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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