weatherwiz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, it looked like the FL winds went up in one of the flights to 144kt, but the IR and data hasn’t suggested intensification since. The lightning may be a precursor to intensification but that’s not enough evidence for me. It’ll be interesting to see if it can in fact reintensify today. I am curious to see what happens as it continues to pull away from the Yucatan but like what had just been posted, shear/dry air are definitely having some impact here. But the structure of this was just so good going into the ERC we'll just have to see how much the dry air/shear can disrupt the entire circulation. Haven't seen any new convection flare in a while so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Continued degradation on the N and NW side, so some shear and dry air impinging on it for now. Perhaps but I think this might be more structural changes. Shear doesn’t really kick in until it starts sliding northward. Like others have said shall be an interesting day to see what Milton does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The biggest concern for Tampa so far is the HAFS-A/B and HWRF still take this in over Clearwater or north and they were fairly close in the last storm 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The biggest concern for Tampa so far is the HAFS-A/B and HWRF still take this in over Clearwater or north and they were fairly close in the last storm Those tracks would be real bad for the TBA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 FWIW, the 06z HAFS-A shows some dry air intrusions today and a significantly larger eye by tomorrow morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Right now I would bet the under on the expected landfall intensity which would be better news if that does happen. We shall see what adjustments are made shortly. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Recon's last pass from SE to NW doesn't give much arguement of that strong outer band (which does show up on that pass) encircling the current eyewall. You can clearly see a rain rate spike and mild wind spike, but a similar rain rate and wind spike is not there on the northern or NW side of Milton's circulation. So perhaps we do not yet have a developed enough outer band or concentric feature to kick off a new EWRC yet. As such, we just have a strong eastern or southeast feeder band that may eventually encompass the eye later today. Let's see if this mission does one more pass. If not, we may just have to wait on the next recon, or perhaps we'll get a new MW pass later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Seems to be structural changes rather than an ERC. No signs of a double wind maxima on recon. New convection is trying to wrap around the eye again,looks to be larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Looking better now for sure even though there is still impingement on the NW side. Plenty of -80C tops rotating around the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Recon is positioning for one more pass from the SW to NE quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, NJwx85 said: Looking better now for sure. Plenty of -80C tops rotating around the core. I think I jinxed it, about 15 minutes after I said there hasn't been no new convection for a while, convection started to blossom on the east side. Not only is the convection starting to wrap around the west side but looks like the convection on the east side is even expanding a bit towards the southeastern side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Looking better now for sure even though there is still impingement on the NW side. Plenty of -80C tops rotating around the core. Usually conflicting observation regarding intensity trends and ambiguity concerning structure equate to steady-state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Man. The frame by frame analysis on here and other forums. It's strengthening! No, it's weakening! Getting whiplash reading through it. Personally I think (purely conjecture) it's probably about steady-state right now, still sorting out its structure post-ERC and dealing with some slightly sub-optimal atmospheric and oceanic conditions. We'll see what happens later today if it gets in a sweet spot of upper-level ventilation while passing over the Loop Current. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 NHC latest 11AM advisory . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 NHC increased to 150MPH with the latest advisory, pressure at 929mb, so slight strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 ICON ticked back north again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Man. The frame by frame analysis on here and other forums. It's strengthening! No, it's weakening! Getting whiplash reading through it. Personally I think (purely conjecture) it's probably about steady-state right now, still sorting out its structure post-ERC and dealing with some slightly sub-optimal atmospheric and oceanic conditions. We'll see what happens later today if it gets in a sweet spot of upper-level ventilation while passing over the Loop Current. The NHC settles it. Not surprising to see conflicting viewpoints when there’s conflicting data. Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to 12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by the planes is 929 mb. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 41 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Andy thinks another EWRC is about to commence based on the radar out of Cancun. Cannot deny that the appearance of Milton's structure shows a pretty sharp moat between the eastern outer band and the eyewall currently. But I am unsure if there is an outer wind spike at present or if that outer band is concentric around the entire eye with the northern half too distant/weak from the radar beam. We may just have to be patient for recon. That's a real chitty radar to be basing anything on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Well I will eat my words. I expected additional weakening at 11am. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The theme of this year's hurricane season: cinnamon roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The eye is clearing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 cloud tops within the eye warming quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 From Jeff Berardelli on Twitter. Track just won't budge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Wow that IR presentation escalated quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: cloud tops within the eye warming quickly Yes, glad that recon is there to make on last pass. Does the next recon flight leave at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 8 Author Share Posted October 8 A worthwhile read from one of the best 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yes, glad that recon is there to make on last pass. Does the next recon flight leave at 18z? Don't know if its scheduled yet but I would figure something around 18z...maybe closer to 19z and start getting data to prepare for the 21z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Little wobble to the SE at the moment. But could also be an optical illusion as the eye reforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Latest dropsonde. Just under Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Latest dropsonde. Just under Cat 5. That’s also the NW Eyewall where the weaker winds tend to be. Will be interesting to see what the NE Eyewall yields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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