Major Hurricane Milton

[CoastalWx]

The surge per NHC will be much higher to the right of center.

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The surge per NHC will be much higher to the right of center.

With the way models are trending, areas from Siesta Key to Port Charlotte should get the worst surge. It's not Tampa, but that is a very populated stretch of coastline.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The surge per NHC will be much higher to the right of center.

I get what @jbenedetis saying because the pressure does contribute to the surge, but obviously the max surge will be just to the right of the eye because forward momentum aided wind is also a factor.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The surge per NHC will be much higher to the right of center.

Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Where the center makes landfall and even just a few miles to the right of center will get much lower surge. Check out this graphic from Ian

Yeah but you need to factor in the size of the eye, but just the “center.” Should have stated that. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what @jbenedetis saying because the pressure does contribute to the surge, but obviously the max surge will be just right of the eye because forward momentum aided wind is also a factor.

The wave setup well ahead of the eye also factors in. I remember the water levels being very high well ahead of Sandy even though winds were offshore right until they suddenly shifted onshore as it hit NJ. Obviously this one’s size won’t be as big but I’m sure water will start pushing in well ahead of the main impacts. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what @jbenedetis saying because the pressure does contribute to the surge, but obviously the max surge will be just right of the eye because forward momentum aided wind is also a factor.

Yeah I guess the takeaway is that north of the nrn eyewall will see significantly less water rise. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Question for anyone who feels like responding -

I guess I’m used to ERC from larger eyes, or ERC’s that are more disruptive instead of the meld that happened overnight - but I suppose I was expecting more wind expansion than we see. 

Would you pontificate that’s more bc of the pinhole to not-pinhole-but-still-really-tiny eye, or bc of the meld, that the explanation was relatively “small” compared to what we’ve seen in the past. 

Or is this more I am just not fully understanding the dynamics at play here? Or is this bc the storm was already so compact that a near double feels small? Mixture of these things? 

[NeonPeon]

Not seeing any evidence that its reintensifying after replacing the eyewall. The eyewall itself looks ragged on IR. Obviously its still a beast but the less intensity it has before it gets sheared the better.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Windspeed]

Be careful comparing previous storms, even Ian. The angle of approach and fetch by Milton is different than Ian. A storm somewhat paralleling the penninsula, and then hooking right may not be as significant as a major that is approaching from a more westerly positon. Also, though Ian had a bad surge, it moved inland at a slower motion. The southern circulation forced and piled water off the shallow shelf into the coast for a longer period of time. Milton, combined with its faster forward motion and lower SLP will be driving sea heights onto the shallow shelf and then pushing all that into the shoreline, bays, and inlets. Not every situation is the same. You hope for the best. But if Milton's windfield expands as modeled and given the already very low SLP, the fetch as it crosses from deeper water to shelf waters is the biggest issue. I hate to say this, but I think the surge will be worse than Ian and more expansive (as bad as that was). Perhaps a surge at Tampa Bay is mitigated if the circulation comes in south, but there is still a lot of highly developed residential and commercial real estate for several hundreds of miles south that will be inundated. But we are still too early to know for any certainty that Tampa Bay will be spared and probably won't know until tomorrow morning for a more defined point of landfall.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Be careful comparing previous storms, even Ian. The angle of approach and fetch by Milton is different than Ian. A storm somewhat paralleling the penninsula, and then hooking right may not be as significant as a major that is approaching from a more westerly positon. Also, though Ian had a bad surge, it moved inland at a slower motion. The southern circulation forced and piled water off the shallow shelf into the coast for a longer period of time. Milton, combined with its faster forwars motion and lower SLP will be driving sea heights onto the shallow shelf and then pushing all that into the shoreline, bays, and inlets. Not every situation is the same. You hope for the best. But if Milton's windfield expands as modeled and gives the already very low SLP, the fetch as it crosses from deeper water to shelf waters is the biggest issue. I hate to say this, but I think the surge will be worse than Ian and more expansive (as bad as that was). Perhaps a surge at Tampa Bay is mitigated if the circulation comes in south, but there is still a lot of highly developed residential and commercial real estate for several hundreds of miles south that will be inundated. But we are still too early to know for any certainty that Tampa Bay will be spared and probably won't know until tomorrow morning for a more defined point of landfall.

Yep, it would still be hundreds of thousands of people facing devastating impacts from a south of Tampa landfall. And those people live right in the worst surge prone areas on barrier islands or on bays. The only real “good” outcome would be a huge N or S trend taking it away from those populated areas which isn’t likely. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

That would tug it north.

[terdferguson]

25 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Not seeing any evidence that its reintensifying after replacing the eyewall. The eyewall itself looks ragged on IR. Obviously its still a beast but the less intensity it has before it gets sheared the better.

There is a lot of dry air to the NW of Milton.

 

That is forecast to wrap around and impact the storm in the future.   Perhaps it is already starting to have an impact.  Look at how the nw part of the CDO is squished and slightly eroded.

 

A lot of talk about this the storm reintensifying to yesterdays levels, but that kind of extreme intensification takes an absolutely perfect environment.  Will Milton have that going forward?

 

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, terdferguson said:

There is a lot of dry air to the NW of Milton.

 

That is forecast to wrap around and impact the storm in the future.   Perhaps it is already starting to have an impact.  Look at how the nw part of the CDO is squished and slightly eroded.

 

A lot of talk about this the storm reintensifying to yesterdays levels, but that kind of extreme intensification takes an absolutely perfect environment.  Will Milton have that going forward?

Dry air is not impacting the storm currently. The degrading appearance and egg shape Milton is taking on is a result of the N/NW shear beating down on the storm. Shear should relax later today in the afternoon.

[dbullsfan]

There is a lot of dry air to the NW of Milton.
 

That is forecast to wrap around and impact the storm in the future.   Perhaps it is already starting to have an impact.  Look at how the nw part of the CDO is squished and slightly eroded.

 
A lot of talk about this the storm reintensifying to yesterdays levels, but that kind of extreme intensification takes an absolutely perfect environment.  Will Milton have that going forward?
 
 

This is a lot earlier than most models expected dry air to start impacting the storm correct?


.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, dbullsfan said:

This is a lot earlier than most models expected dry air to start impacting the storm correct?


.

The hurricane is not currently being affected by dry air. We do have some Northwesterly shear that's forecasted to weaken as the day goes on. Conditions will be favorable for about the next 24 hours.

As we speak, hot towers are going up in the Western eyewall. It's still getting its act together from the EWRC.

 

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That would tug it north.

My personal belief remains that this will end up further north, probably near Clearwater as you said yesterday, but we’ll see. 

[Windspeed]

There is a lot of dry air to the NW of Milton.
 

That is forecast to wrap around and impact the storm in the future.   Perhaps it is already starting to have an impact.  Look at how the nw part of the CDO is squished and slightly eroded.

 
A lot of talk about this the storm reintensifying to yesterdays levels, but that kind of extreme intensification takes an absolutely perfect environment.  Will Milton have that going forward?
 
 

I think the issue we face for today and tonight is that Milton is embedded within an overall favorable environment that is condusive for reintensification. Milton's foward motion will be increasing while it is positoned in the right front entrance region of a strengthening 200 hPa jet streak over the SE CONUS. With SSTs remaining condusive and prior to shear being any overwhelming negative factor, Milton will be able to re-intensify or at least hold on to a high-end steady state of intensity. The mid-level steering flow is currently realigning into this upper mass-divergent jet streak. Can we say for sure dry air to the west doesn't get pushed into and entrained by the vortex? No, that could and hopefully will occur. But the favorable aspects of this synoptic setup still significantly outweigh the negatives over the next 24 hours. I expect any current appearance and a state that is temporary until reintensification occurs. If nothing else, a steady state should be maintained until a new EWRC evolves.

[USCG RS]

48 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Question for anyone who feels like responding -

I guess I’m used to ERC from larger eyes, or ERC’s that are more disruptive instead of the meld that happened overnight - but I suppose I was expecting more wind expansion than we see. 

Would you pontificate that’s more bc of the pinhole to not-pinhole-but-still-really-tiny eye, or bc of the meld, that the explanation was relatively “small” compared to what we’ve seen in the past. 

Or is this more I am just not fully understanding the dynamics at play here? Or is this bc the storm was already so compact that a near double feels small? Mixture of these things? 

@Moderately Unstable Would likely be a good person to answer this

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My personal belief remains that this will end up further north, probably near Clearwater as you said yesterday, but we’ll see. 

I could even envision a scenario where this makes its way up towards Cedar Key as it carries the momentum from the lopsided convection and executes one of those land evasion wobbles into the southern reaches of the big bend. The HMON shows this.

[jbenedet]

There is a second recurve progged in the major guidance, right after landfall. It appears Milton will lose the northerly component to trajectory, and instead head  easterly once over land. This is especially evident when looking at the individual ensemble members. A northeast tracking upon landfall then to more E, or slightly N of due east, toward Orlando.

Tampa -> Orlando ->Cape Canaveral

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There is a second recurve progged in the major guidance, right after landfall. It appears Milton will lose the northerly component to trajectory, and instead head  easterly once over land. This is especially evident when looking at the individual ensemble members. A northeast tracking upon landfall then to more E, or slightly N of due east, toward Orlando.

Tampa -> Orlando ->Cape Canaveral

 

I think that will be delayed until post landfall...some guidance tries to do it right at or even before, which would be great for TB.

[eyewall]

This storm is definitely feeling some decent shear now and I am not sure it will intensify again for the moment. Looks cloud tops have warmed in the northern half as well.

[NJwx85]

Recon just got another pass. Pressure is holding steady.

[jbenedet]

With respect to the euro op only, and intensity at landfall -  today's 6z Euro run was the strongest at landfall @966. A big shift towards the GFS which has been consistently in the 950's...

There's pretty damn good alignment now on landfall intensity with the hurricane models. Consensus around 955 mb.

[CoastalWx]

Continued degradation on the N and NW side, so some shear and dry air impinging on it for now. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

This storm is definitely feeling some decent shear now and I am not sure it will intensify again for the moment. Looks cloud tops have warmed in the northern half as well.

Yeah, it looked like the FL winds went up in one of the flights to 144kt, but the IR and data hasn’t suggested intensification since. The lightning may be a precursor to intensification but that’s not enough evidence for me. It’ll be interesting to see if it can in fact reintensify today. 

[Windspeed]

Andy thinks another EWRC is about to commence based on the radar out of Cancun. Cannot deny that the appearance of Milton's structure shows a pretty sharp moat between the eastern outer band and the eyewall currently. But I am unsure if there is an outer wind spike at present or if that outer band is concentric around the entire eye with the northern half too distant/weak from the radar beam. We may just have to be patient for recon.

[MUWX]

Looks like another EWR could be getting underway now, as well. Andy Hazelton calling this out too on twitter.