Major Hurricane Milton

[HKY_WX]

I think it may have ingested some dry air off the yucatan landmass as the eyewall got extremely close yesterday evening. As it moves NE and gets into the loop current it will likely have the opportunity to restrengthen today. Kinda scary the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all zeroed in on TB at 00z tonight...

[sielicki]

[Floydbuster]

[TPAwx]

0z GEFS and EPS tracks

 

[RU848789]

155 mph at 5 am EDT with forecast track nudged very slightly north vs. 11 pm; Tampa area still under the gun if center of forecast track verifies, but the track cone is a bit wider than the typical error at 48 hrs (~65 miles), so landfall location is obviously still a bit of a guess.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 22.3N  88.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 22.9N  87.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 24.2N  85.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 26.0N  84.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 27.6N  82.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  10/1800Z 28.8N  79.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  11/0600Z 29.7N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 30.4N  69.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z 31.5N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[TPAwx]

6z ICON landfall between panels, appears to be around Anna Maria Island Thursday AM

 

[Modfan2]

41 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

0z GEFS and EPS tracks

 

EPS members have some southern tracks, is this a trend or outlier?

[TPAwx]

6z GFS over TB and MBY early AM Thursday.  Appears to approach from southern end/Anna Maria Island.  

[dan11295]

19 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

6z GFS over TB and MBY early AM Thursday.  Appears to approach from southern end/Anna Maria Island.  

Very close to 0z GFS, maybe a couple miles further south but not any meaningful change.

[weatherCCB]

CDO looks to be expanding again. 

[gustmouse]

6:15 EDT

[olafminesaw]

No signs of shear, now that the new eye is established, should have another specimen by this afternoon. I suspect it will hit cat 5 again, but winds may continue to drop before thy go back up again 

[cptcatz]

First pass: 926.7 mb, peak flight wind 126 knots

[TPAwx]

6z HAFs-B landfall near Indian Rocks Beach.  

IMBY it’s massive surge from ground level and big oaks on the roof from the NE eyewall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

155 mph at 5 am EDT with forecast track nudged very slightly north vs. 11 pm; Tampa area still under the gun if center of forecast track verifies, but the track cone is a bit wider than the typical error at 48 hrs (~65 miles), so landfall location is obviously still a bit of a guess.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 22.3N  88.9W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 22.9N  87.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 24.2N  85.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 26.0N  84.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 27.6N  82.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  10/1800Z 28.8N  79.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  11/0600Z 29.7N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z 30.4N  69.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/0600Z 31.5N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

This is simply due to the angle of approach.

[olafminesaw]

Intense convection wrapping around the new eye

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Intense convection wrapping around the new eye

That is a relatively large eye now...yikes. I wouldn't expect the pressure to come up to much more with that look.....up about 30mb in 12 hours from peak, which is to be expected from an EWRC in a system with a 3.5mi wide eye.

JMO, but I don't think the Yucatan played much if any role in the weakening...it was just about all internally driven.

[Dunkman]

That was an incredibly efficient EWRC. I was hoping for the pressure to rise more and the core to look a little more ragged. We’re quickly running out of time for this thing to weaken enough to matter with the surge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

That was an incredibly efficient EWRC. I was hoping for the pressure to rise more and the core to look a little more ragged. We’re quickly running out of time for this thing to weaken enough to matter with the surge.

I think a 30mb rise in 12 hours is pretty steep....about the best one can hope for given how pristine the antecedent structure was, as others have mentioned. However, it was so intense to begin with that this still leaves us with a remarkably intense system, unfortunately....and one that is more expansive and capable of generating deadly surge, as well as a wider envelope of power-disrupting winds.

[NorthHillsWx]

Looks like it’s a go for round 2 of intensification. An interesting thing I’ve noticed on some of the hi res models is the strongest winds appear to transfer to the north and western sides of the system as it approaches Florida (sting jet?). While north of track areas would escape the surge, that’s cat 3+ winds showing on that side of the eye. If it goes slightly south of you, you are by no means safe simply because you avoided what will 100000% be a catastrophic surge on the south side. Heed evacuation orders 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like it’s a go for round 2 of intensification. An interesting thing I’ve noticed on some of the hi res models is the strongest winds appear to transfer to the north and western sides of the system as it approaches Florida (sting jet?). While north of track areas would escape the surge, that’s cat 3+ winds showing on that side of the eye. If it goes slightly south of you, you are by no means safe simply because you avoided what will 100000% be a catastrophic surge on the south side. Heed evacuation orders 

Seeing a pretty definitive trend on guidance to hook this right just prior to LF, which may be a (relative) saving grace for TB in terms of surge.

[TriPol]

Have there been any papers published on the frequency of ERC in major hurricanes? It still has a while before it reaches the Tampa Bay area and I'm wondering if it could undergo one more before hitting.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think a best case scenario is for the shear and dry air to impact the system at the onset of another EWRC. They are especially vulnerable to detrimental enviornmental factors at that time because the internal structure is in a state of flux and the core often has openings. 

[Windspeed]

A few thoughts this morning. RE: Yucatán playing a role, I agree with @40/70 Benchmark that it did not. Milton's core and RMW is still very small even after its first (perhaps second as one may have occurred prior to the hyper period of RI yesterday morning). With a dominant 12-15nm wide eyewall and spiking eye temps, the old cloud debris of the old eye should be gone in a few more hours, and we will have further reintensification. The pressure is falling again, and I do think Milton will regain Category 5 intensity. It has very favorable conditons with an increasing jet streak today. SSTs are not an issue.

A few more things about the most recent EWRC. 1) At 4-6nm in diameter and at sub-900 mb pressure, with such a micro RMW, any ERC is going to annihilate the pressure to wind gradiant relationship. So I don't think dry air played a role, Milton just needed time for the new, slightly larger vortex to catch up. That seems to be occurring now. 2) Though the RMW did expand back out a bit at 15nm or so, that is still a small core. The stage is set for another impressive bout of low pressure today. I'm not saying it will go sub 900 mb again, but it may flirt with the mid to low 905-910s. Sub 900s isn't unrealistic, however. The very cold cloudtops are a hint at this... 3) For significant RMW expansion and the forecasted large windfield, Milton will need to evolve a much larger eye. This, of course, to expand the large surge threat as is being modeled. There isn't in the way of overly strong outer bands yet, but by tonight, much of the TC models suggest this process will occur and lead to a much larger ERC on Wednesday as Milton crosses the eastern GOM. SSTs and upper atmospheric support will remain condusive for such an evolution of the core to occur.

[snowman21]

929 mb / 145 mph as of 8 AM EDT update

[eyewall]

929mb and 145mph on the intermediate advisory. In my experience, the storm almost always weakens more than the official forecast during an EWRC. We will see how it rebuilds now that it has completed.

[purduewx80]

Both planes in the storm now indicate it’s a cat 5 again. 

[WxWatcher007]

Let’s try to take a more comprehensive look at Milton this morning. Overnight, Milton completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle in which the winds came down from their exceptional peak and the pressure rose from a staggering 897mb to 924mb. This morning’s recon flight has the latest VDM showing 932mb, though indications are this is starting to fall again.

In my estimation, Milton is starting to reintensify. 

 

In the last few frames you can see a warmer and more defined eye, and until shear picks up, I think the only thing slowing this down over the coming hours will be if another ERC attempt begins. The VDM also had the new eye at 12nm, so the intensification rate could be substantial today.

Milton is gaining latitude and as frustrating as it may be, we are not at a place yet to know the final landfall location, which matters immensely for coastal communities.

But first, I want to talk other impacts.

Wind

The radius of maximum winds is still pretty small. Hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles per the 5am advisory. This may help Milton try to reach a second peak today, but every expectation is that as this gains latitude and makes its final approach the wind field will grow substantially. As a result, in addition to higher wind speeds due to a major hurricane landfall, hurricane force gusts are likely across the peninsula in the path of the storm, hence the hurricane watches and warnings. Given the metropolitan areas in the path, damaging winds will likely cause widespread damage—you don’t need cat 4 winds for that. At the landfall point at the coast, it’ll just make things worse. 
 

HAFS-A shows the expansion of the wind field in a way that makes sense to me. IMO as we saw with Helene it’s far worse to have lower peak winds reach a larger section inland than extremely high winds only reach a narrow section of coast. 

Now

 

Pre-landfall

 

Aerial Flooding 

I’ve been talking about this since the beginning and I’ll keep doing so. We can’t underestimate the aerial flood risk. Now we have a High Risk for excessive rainfall for much of central Florida, extending into Orlando. This kind of flooding gets underestimated and kills as a result in many storms. Inland folks need to understand this risk and be prepared to take action if they are in a low lying area.

 

Edited to add more detailed version of above graphic 

Surge

The surge potential is likely already guaranteed to be met somewhere. Unfortunately, Milton’s intensity, growing size, and heading will bring Major to catastrophic surge to some portion of the west coast of Florida. Given the still fresh damage of Helene, the structural damage could be even more profound. Even on the east coast there will be surge, but the main focus is rightfully on the west coast. 

This, is where track matters so much. It’s extremely important to not get locked into one solution or even model suite trend yet. If you’re in the potential path prepare as if the worst is coming to you.

The 00z super ensemble shows us that a lot of real estate is still at risk of the direct hit. This will likely shift only slightly, but enough to make a huge difference for places like Tampa, Sarasota, and Ft. Meyers.

 

I not only think we’re still searching for that final landfall point, we also have to be abundantly clear eyed about the fact that given the angle of approach, wobbles—which are common features near landfall—can dramatically change where the worst surge ends up. Folks I cannot make it more clear—you can have a spot on NHC forecast that’s still off by 10-25 miles. Nobody should be locking in a landfall point at this range. 

Timing, which also hasn’t been nailed down to the hour, matters here too for high/low tide. 

The bottom line is that this is a multi-hazard dangerous storm, even inland. I think we see a run at another peak today before shear and another ERC fully disrupt the intense inner core. I do think that we see weakening before landfall, but with an expanded wind field and Milton coming off a high peak, a landfall intensity of 125-135mph remains a reasonable possibility.

We don’t know yet where the landfall point will be, and honestly, I don’t think we’ll truly know that until a few hours before landfall. 

To anyone in the path that’s still on the fence about the seriousness of this one—get off of it. This is as serious as it gets. 

Hope this long post helps some. 

[jbenedet]

There is ~100 miles of Florida coastline in the 12’ surge forecast. 

Being on the northern/western eyewall shouldn’t be cause for relief. 

The bulk of the surge is collocated with the min SLP, and is not wind driven. This isn’t unique to Milton. The wind direction matters much more for storm surge impacts when you are 50-100+ miles from the center. 

[cptcatz]

Looks like 06z Euro is trending a tad south around Sarasota and 06z GEFS has TB at the far northern end of the ensembles with a bunch betweeen Sarasota and Fort Myers.  Wonder if this southern trend will continue.