Major Hurricane Milton

[CamSE-Wx]

00z GFS already initializing too far to the west

[RU848789]

22 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

NHC new track is ever so slightly shifted south, with a landfall between Sarasota and St. Petersburg.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, one of my pet peeves with the NHC is them not always providing a location/windspeed/pressure of the landfall point for the center of their track.  I know they like to highlight that "users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton" but I still think they should share at least the landfall forecast, as people want to know and without that info, people end up doing their own estimations of landfall location and strength, which is worse, IMO. 

For example, the 11 pm advisory contains the point off the coast in the map below (27.1N 83.3W), but guessing exactly where exactly landfall will be has some uncertainty as one has to look at the track and eyeball it.  It's certainly a bit south of the 5 pm track (the little grey dropped pin was the point NHC gave at 5 pm, i.e., 27.9N 82.6W), which is why I would guess Anna Maria Island, due west of Bradenton, which would mean the storm would still kind of go NE into Tampa Bay, but barely; the 11 pm track represents about a 15 mile shift SE from the track at 5pm (by my eyeball and I'd rather not be relying on my eyeballs, lol) and and another 10-20 mile shift might be enough to spare Tampa the worst surge.  

The NHC "knows" the landfall point - I just wish they'd share it.  As an aside, is there some service out there that actually calculates it?

[Floydbuster]

So if 1921 was the last *direct* hit, would Longboat Key count as a direct hit today?

[GaWx]

Milton has generated a whopping 6.8 ACE during the last 24 hours! Look for it to be even larger tomorrow.

[BuffaloWeather]

Does anyone know how much it deepened in 24 hrs? Set any records?

[TPAwx]

GFS landfall Anna Maria Island.  South of 18z.  Brutal for longboat Key, Sarasota, Siesta Key.  Impacts down to Port Charlotte.

Shift doesn’t look like much on the plot but it matters for Tampa.

[CCHurricane]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, one of my pet peeves with the NHC is them not always providing a location/windspeed/pressure of the landfall point for the center of their track.  I know they like to highlight that "users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton" but I still think they should share at least the landfall forecast, as people want to know and without that info, people end up doing their own estimations of landfall location and strength, which is worse, IMO. 

For example, the 11 pm advisory contains the point off the coast in the map below (27.1N 83.3W), but guessing exactly where exactly landfall will be has some uncertainty as one has to look at the track and eyeball it.  It's certainly a bit south of the 5 pm track (the little grey dropped pin was the point NHC gave at 5 pm, i.e., 27.9N 82.6W), which is why I would guess Anna Maria Island, due west of Bradenton, which would mean the storm would still kind of go NE into Tampa Bay, but barely; the 11 pm track represents about a 15 mile shift SE from the track at 5pm (by my eyeball and I'd rather not be relying on my eyeballs, lol) and and another 10-20 mile shift might be enough to spare Tampa the worst surge.  

The NHC "knows" the landfall point - I just wish they'd share it.  As an aside, is there some service out there that actually calculates it?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?gm_track#contents 

Check the "Track" option and zoom in

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

GFS landfall Anna Maria Island.  South of 18z.  Brutal for longboat Key, Sarasota, Siesta Key.  Shift doesn’t look like much on the plot but it matters for Tampa.

Each GFS run today has trended further S.

[Moderately Unstable]

44 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, one of my pet peeves with the NHC is them not always providing a location/windspeed/pressure of the landfall point for the center of their track.  I know they like to highlight that "users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton" but I still think they should share at least the landfall forecast, as people want to know and without that info, people end up doing their own estimations of landfall location and strength, which is worse, IMO. 

For example, the 11 pm advisory contains the point off the coast in the map below (27.1N 83.3W), but guessing exactly where exactly landfall will be has some uncertainty as one has to look at the track and eyeball it.  It's certainly a bit south of the 5 pm track (the little grey dropped pin was the point NHC gave at 5 pm, i.e., 27.9N 82.6W), which is why I would guess Anna Maria Island, due west of Bradenton, which would mean the storm would still kind of go NE into Tampa Bay, but barely; the 11 pm track represents about a 15 mile shift SE from the track at 5pm (by my eyeball and I'd rather not be relying on my eyeballs, lol) and and another 10-20 mile shift might be enough to spare Tampa the worst surge.  

The NHC "knows" the landfall point - I just wish they'd share it.  As an aside, is there some service out there that actually calculates it?

It is not. Here are the facts. The more the public focuses on a line, the less they care about not being on it. Also, the NHC is not omnipotent. There are track errors. Part of their widespread success and public trust is because they de-emphasize exact paths, tell you where it's approximately going to be, paint a wide swath, and to get out of dodge. This storm is several hundred miles away. It is not physically possible to forecast whether it will go right over the bay, north, or south right now. We can try. There are trends. But anyone who tells you they know the precise coordinates - no, they don't. For Milton, the main memo is: powerful hurricane may kill you and your loved ones if you don't evacuate. The reality is, the storm could be shredded by shear, and weaker than forecast at landfall. Or, shear could affect it less than expected and it's stronger (etc). They certainly have their best guess of the eye location and track, and that type of info is communicated to EM and gov where it isn't as likely to be distorted. It's still available on the public products as you see - it just isn't the emphasis. 

This is not calling you out. Most of the chat is about individual run updates. I'm mainly trying to explain why nhc doesn't go out of their way to focus on the eye's track in their public products. Private mets that do contract work for commodities get paid to do what you're asking for. 

[TPAwx]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Each GFS run today has trended further S.

The 6z was tough to wake up to today. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

[beanskip]

One thing I noticed with the 18z Euro and now with the 0z GFS  is pretty nifty little right turn shortly after landfall. What's really interesting is that the new CMC makes that right turn BEFORE landfall and so what looks like a Tampa landfall ends up being south of Sarasota, almost to Venice.

Keeping in mind Helene's late wobble to the right, this might be something to keep an eye on.

[TPAwx]

GEFS mean south of TB.  Significantly so from 6z.

[DDweatherman]

10 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

GEFS mean south of TB.  Significantly so from 6z.

The right hook has happened a few times. I am concerned if this bombs big time in the morning through afternoon, it may get a bit more poleward again and go back over Pinellas. My personal cone was Clearwater to Sarasota. 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET appears to be a little S of Tampa and pretty similar to 12Z. Waiting on maps.

[brianc33710]

1 hour ago, TPAwx said:

ICON landfall just south of TB early AM Thursday. 960s

Relocated from one block from Hillsborough Bay in South Tampa to a nondescript hotel in Lutz.

Lutz is north of town though. 

[brianc33710]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Does anyone know how much it deepened in 24 hrs? Set any records?

3rd, behind #1 Wilma & #2 Felix. @DDweatherman I tend to think Milton makes 1 more run for 185 mph & sub 900 mb pressure, given the almost perfect intensification conditiconditions he has Tuesday in the loop with no shear. As a bigger & stronger storm, winding down from shear & dry air may take longer. I think 135, a low end Cat 4, is the landfall windspeed, not 125. 

[RU848789]

54 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032137.shtml?gm_track#contents 

Check the "Track" option and zoom in

Thanks, although I would have no idea how to find that if I didn't know it existed, lol.  Bookmarked it...

[RU848789]

47 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

It is not. Here are the facts. The more the public focuses on a line, the less they care about not being on it. Also, the NHC is not omnipotent. There are track errors. Part of their widespread success and public trust is because they de-emphasize exact paths, tell you where it's approximately going to be, paint a wide swath, and to get out of dodge. This storm is several hundred miles away. It is not physically possible to forecast whether it will go right over the bay, north, or south right now. We can try. There are trends. But anyone who tells you they know the precise coordinates - no, they don't. For Milton, the main memo is: powerful hurricane may kill you and your loved ones if you don't evacuate. The reality is, the storm could be shredded by shear, and weaker than forecast at landfall. Or, shear could affect it less than expected and it's stronger (etc). They certainly have their best guess of the eye location and track, and that type of info is communicated to EM and gov where it isn't as likely to be distorted. It's still available on the public products as you see - it just isn't the emphasis. 

This is not calling you out. Most of the chat is about individual run updates. I'm mainly trying to explain why nhc doesn't go out of their way to focus on the eye's track in their public products. Private mets that do contract work for commodities get paid to do what you're asking for. 

I generally understand the nuances of numerical modeling and forecasting and spent many years doing emergency response planning (including for weather) for Merck's Rahway, NJ site, so I get not wanting to possibly confuse the public, but that doesn't change the fact that I'd simply like to know what the NHC knows about landfall in their forecasts.  Maybe they could use the model they use for their surge inundation product where the reader has to acknowledge the limitations and caveats associated with use of the tool and provide the landfall data, but only after the reader read a disclaimer on how that point is, at best a guess, and should not be used for planning purposes, per se, given the uncertainties of hurricane track/intensity forecasting or something like that.  I don't think providing that is going to significantly affect how the public uses the info, but perhaps I'm wrong about that.  Anyway, thanks for the perspective.  

[WxWatcher007]

The VDM at 3:29z reported concentric closed eyewalls at 6 and 22nm diameter respectively. 2°C difference.

The latest VDM (4:32z) now reports only one closed eyewall at 16nm with an 8°C temperature difference. 927mb.

[MattPetrulli]

Getting better agreement on track/intensity with 00z hurricane models

 

[g0ldl10n]

Would we think the newly symmetrical ring of lightning flashes we see here would represent how large the new eye would be assuming it does clear out and complete the EWRC?

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: Tampa late Wed night

[brianc33710]

4 minutes ago, g0ldl10n said:

Would we think the newly symmetrical ring of lightning flashes we see here would represent how large the new eye would be assuming it does clear out and complete the EWRC?

That's what I was thinking! I figured Milton had finished the EWRC.

[LakeNormanStormin]

Think Milton defies logic.

What would be a CAT3 at landfall could easily be a CAT4.

Now cast.

[Floydbuster]

NOAA aircraft "Gonzo" has left Florida, headed to Hurricane Milton.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

8 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Think Milton defies logic.

What would be a CAT3 at landfall could easily be a CAT4.

Now cast.

Really comes down to the landfall point. Farther north it landfalls, the greater impacts it will sustain from shear and dry air. Farther south it landfalls, less impacts from shear and dry air. You do NOT want a landfall between Fort Myers and Naples. This would almost guarantee high-end Cat 4 or perhaps Cat 5 on landfall.

Another thing to consider is how the hurricane models are starting to show a last minute rapid intensification on landfall. This would be both environmental and frictional induced but the critical angle of approach would also enhance the last minute RI process.

[g0ldl10n]

12 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

That's what I was thinking! I figured Milton had finished the EWRC.

If that is the case, then that seems to have placed it's center now just at the very northern edge of the current NHC cone. Slightly north of 22N and east of 90W, and rough drawing on my part seems to show this. 

What I am not fully understanding, although, fully understand why the cone from NHC was target further south earlier today, with possible landfall on the peninsula is because of the steering currents. But what I am not quite understanding is what is effecting it's movement that has, and is still keeping it on the northern edge of even updated guidance? 

Looking at the steering "present" steering currents as well as the same 3 hours ago for sub 940 TC systems, I would have thought it would have made more of a move south. Anyone care to shed any light on why it seemed so resistant to that move despite the steering currents looking so conclusive? Also, how might this effect the overall path moving forward?

Looking at the steering currents here. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=

[Floydbuster]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

[Radtechwxman]

I knew EWRC would take its toll but didn't expect it back down to cat 4 already albeit just barely. Satellite appearance has definitely degraded compared to earlier. Curious to see if there's any recovery tomorrow after it completes EWRC. 

[g0ldl10n]

Microwave imaging seems to confirm EWRC is complete.

 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2024_14L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html