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Major Hurricane Milton


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3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

No, not a sign of ERC. Rather the opposite, sign that Milton is still bombing out and about to achieve its peak intensity.

I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds. 

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5 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Eye seems to be shrinking, signs of ERC starting? Structure still looks excellent obviously.

Shrinking eyes != ERC (though they can lead to one). An ERC is indicated by double wind maxima on recon or structural verification on Microwave Imagery typically.

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16 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The NHC has used this phrasing multiple times now: 

"Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south."

I wonder if this is related to the track adjustments during Helene where, at first, they did not prioritize the verbatim global model outputs showing a landfall in Taylor County, FL, and then a track through central GA instead of toward Atlanta. 

I copied and pasted that sentence so I could ask the EXACT SAME question. 

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds. 

Not seeing a double wind maxima.

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1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Not seeing a double wind maxima.

Well we haven’t had recon for several hours to confirm if there is a double wind maxima or not. The fact that NHC mentioned it might already be underway is reason enough to not discount the possibility. 

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17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not the direction you want to see things trending 

IMG_4283.png

From a water (areal flooding and storm surge inundation) standpoint, this is a deeply concerning situation. The current state of existing flooding:

image.thumb.png.ef89730181d9a547ec5160bd48715dba.png

… coupled with the (experimental)flooding projections:

IMG_2094.thumb.png.78cf03647b5085d471168dec5f16c303.png

…with the base and tidal inundation forecasts

IMG_2095.thumb.png.55415cacffc5f4f224b0d8a07647f99d.png

…lead to a pretty dire projection.  People living in the areas represented in these maps need to heat the caution, warning and direction of emergency preparedness personnel in their region.

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Yeah, Milton is going black hole mode right now. NOAA2 cannot get there fast enough for some of us. Bizarrely ADT raw T# dropped to 7.4. Given the current satellite presentation...make that make sense.

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

Yeah, Milton is going black hole mode right now. NOAA2 cannot get there fast enough. Bizarrely ADT raw T# dropped to 7.4. Given the current satellite presentation...make that make sense.

That method isn't really made for eyes that are 5 miles wide.

GoM basin record in serious jeopardy. Been saying it since this morning elsewhere. Patricia, ERC or bust.

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9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

xWRzpgn.gif

Wild seeing those pink colors slowly creep into a circle over the CDO. 

Even if Milton simply maintains intensity, I would expect this to be the case given we are approaching diurnal max. Now if he strengthens further tonight... get ready for some even more impressive colors to show themselves soon. 

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Just now, TPAwx said:

18z GFS is over TB early AM Thursday.  Landfall position is south of 12z.

Also maintains intensity well. Strong winds make it as far inland as Orlando but it does confine most of the rain to the West and North of the center.

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18 minutes ago, Nibor said:

xWRzpgn.gif

Wild seeing those pink colors slowly creep into a circle over the CDO. 

Starting to have Hyian look, the strongest satellite recodrded storm in world history. Crazy thing Is, this is happening in a parT of the basin that shouldn’t support it. Absolutely top of the line storm. 

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