bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the eye has contracted a bit over the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They’re certainly doing the best they can. They’re weenies as much as we are. But they have limited crews, planes, and procedural schedules to live by—probably some of it for safety reasons. The only thing that bothers me is when there are two planes in at the same time and then none for a few hours. Like why can't they stagger them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Probably a bit stronger that last recon, but has to be close to maximum potential intensity for this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: I could see it maxing out at 180 or 185 with perhaps an 890's pressure before degradation begins. Could be where it's at currently. My guess is it's leveled off there about an hour ago and has been steady every since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, cptcatz said: The only thing that bothers me is when there are two planes in at the same time and then none for a few hours. Like why can't they stagger them? You do know they may be there the same time but have different mission parameters and altitude to allow different observations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Interesting thing I just noticed. Assuming UKXI is drunk and not including that, there are still four models showing this staying as cat 5 for another 108 hours. Anyone know what those models are seeing that the others aren't? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like the recon flight turned around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: Looks like the recon flight turned around? Nope still straight as an arrow en route 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 8 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the eye has contracted a bit over the last 30 minutes. It has, yes. Another solid indicator Milton is about to sustain very rapid and intense pressure falls. Likely only a few hours away from achieving peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Models keeping this as a cat 4 until 12 hours before landfall. Surge basically baked in at that point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: Nope still straight as an arrow en route Looks like it turned around on flight aware but could be a bug or something. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 180mph/905mb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like 180 905 for 5 pm undate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 180 mph, 905 mbar... BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Posting this here for posterity. 500 image vis loop at 1(ish)m intervals at 1km from sun up to now. You can save it as a .gif with the button there on the page. Back to storm preps for me.... https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=500&loop_speed_ms=80 10 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like the new forecast takes it up to 185G225 at 6z tomorrow before the weakening trend begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 180/905 - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Looks like 180 905 for 5 pm undate 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.8°N 90.8°W Moving: E at 10 mph Min pressure: 905 mb Max sustained: 180 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Not the direction you want to see things trending 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 It's de facto and baked into the cake that Milton will weaken from its current state. These #'s are only possible in perfect environmental circumstances (low shear, high oceanic heat content, etc). The Southern GOM, Northern Caribbean, and loop current are areas where there have many historic bombogenesis events. The Euro AI and GFS both have a solid handle on Helene. Both have a good environment for Milton up to Landfall. I don't see it heading towards a hostile environment per se. It's just a more traditional one. The only saving grace I can see at this point is the rather small size, but these storms tend to build size over time as they navigate the open waters. This will be a bad/catastrophic one unfortunately. Obviously a bit too early to pin point if it will hit Tampa Bay directly or just to the north/south of the city. Stay tuned. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The NHC has used this phrasing multiple times now: "Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south." I wonder if this is related to the track adjustments during Helene where, at first, they did not prioritize the verbatim global model outputs showing a landfall in Taylor County, FL, and then a track through central GA instead of toward Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 mesmerizing indeed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Not the direction you want to see things trending Not surprised, and assume it could go higher in the segment just south of landfall. For a Pinellas or Pasco County landfall north of TB, the downtown corridor of the City of Tampa itself will be severely impacted, from the surge and flow from the Hillsborough River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Eye seems to be shrinking, signs of ERC starting? Structure still looks excellent obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Not the direction you want to see things trending How much storm surge did they get with Helene when all was said and done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Eye seems to be shrinking, signs of ERC starting? Structure still looks excellent obviously. No, not a sign of ERC. Rather the opposite, sign that Milton is still bombing out and about to achieve its peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Absolutely incredible lightening today in the eye. (73mb file size) https://bayheadwx.net/weather/2024/september/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso2-truecolor-20_32Z-20241007_map-glm_flash_noBar-100-4n-10-150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 about as perfect a pin-hole eye as I can remember 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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