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Major Hurricane Milton


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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They’re certainly doing the best they can. They’re weenies as much as we are. But they have limited crews, planes, and procedural schedules to live by—probably some of it for safety reasons. 

The only thing that bothers me is when there are two planes in at the same time and then none for a few hours.  Like why can't they stagger them?

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8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I could see it maxing out at 180 or 185 with perhaps an 890's pressure before degradation begins.

Could be where it's at currently.  My guess is it's leveled off there about an hour ago and has been steady every since.

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Just now, cptcatz said:

The only thing that bothers me is when there are two planes in at the same time and then none for a few hours.  Like why can't they stagger them?

You do know they may be there the same time but have different mission parameters and altitude to allow different observations. 

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Interesting thing I just noticed.  Assuming UKXI is drunk and not including that, there are still four models showing this staying as cat 5 for another 108 hours.  Anyone know what those models are seeing that the others aren't?  

14L_intensity_latest.png

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8 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Maybe my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the eye has contracted a bit over the last 30 minutes.

It has, yes. Another solid indicator Milton is about to sustain very rapid and intense pressure falls. Likely only a few hours away from achieving peak intensity.

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180 mph, 905 mbar...

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND 
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES
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Posting this here for posterity.  500 image vis loop at 1(ish)m intervals at 1km from sun up to now.  You can save it as a .gif with the button there on the page.  Back to storm preps for me....

https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=500&loop_speed_ms=80

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It's de facto and baked into the cake that Milton will weaken from its current state. These #'s are only possible in perfect environmental circumstances (low shear, high oceanic heat content, etc). The Southern GOM, Northern Caribbean, and loop current are areas where there have many historic bombogenesis events. The Euro AI and GFS both have a solid handle on Helene. Both have a good environment for Milton up to Landfall. I don't see it heading towards a hostile environment per se. It's just a more traditional one. The only saving grace I can see at this point is the rather small size, but these storms tend to build size over time as they navigate the open waters. This will be a bad/catastrophic one unfortunately. Obviously a bit too early to pin point if it will hit Tampa Bay directly or just to the north/south of the city. Stay tuned.

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The NHC has used this phrasing multiple times now: 

"Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south."

I wonder if this is related to the track adjustments during Helene where, at first, they did not prioritize the verbatim global model outputs showing a landfall in Taylor County, FL, and then a track through central GA instead of toward Atlanta. 

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4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Not the direction you want to see things trending 

IMG_4283.png

Not surprised, and assume it could go higher in the segment just south of landfall.

For a Pinellas or Pasco County landfall north of TB, the downtown corridor of the City of Tampa itself will be severely impacted, from the surge and flow from the Hillsborough River.  

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