Wannabehippie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Completely different than the GFS. Interesting… Even with that weakening, the storm surge will be massive, as it probably won't be quick enough to have that slack off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Even with that weakening, the storm surge will be massive, as it probably won't be quick enough to have that slack off at all. Yes the wind field will expand significantly. That aside the steep weakening seen on the Hurricane model guidance also has the track furthest north into the worst shear environment. I’m with the globals on track EPS/GEFS, which are further south. Unfavorable upper air, but relatively less hostile… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The radial expansion of the wind field upon landfall requires a physical reduction in wind velocity; that’s conservation of angular momentum. Some of this exposes the flaws in our hurricane categorization on wind speed alone, but I digress… 13 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Hurricane Milton has definitely started more ENE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 EPS mean appears to stay south of TB. Panel resolution not great but it’s definately on the southern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This is not only historic but absolutely jaw-dropping what we are witnessing in the Atlantic Basin right now. Only a handful of times in the satellite era have we seen a hurricane achieve upper-echelon intensity. 5 times to be exact with Milton likely being the sixth. 2005 Wilma- 882mb 1988 Gilbert- 888mb 1935 Labor Day Hurricane - 892mb 2005 Rita- 895mb 1980 Allen- 899mb 9 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Perfect symmetry of CDO and overall as textbook as you can get with an ATL Basin hurricane. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Perfect symmetry of CDO and overall as textbook as you can get with an ATL Basin hurricane. Just stunning. I am just amazed this is moving west to east vs our typical east to west movement. The norms are being thrown out the window so often now, it seems. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Those satellite images are impressive. Perfect circular eye. Likely still intensifying. This next update will be interesting. Could the central pressure be in the 800's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Once again the gfs looks like it will nail another storm with strength and direction. Not sure why you guys are even looking at the euro. It did crap with Helene. GFS is king til it isnt. Also with Helene GFS wasnt showing the sheer and weaking like other models were kinda the same story with this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Very curious to see what recon finds this afternoon. Certainly looks to still be intensifying, but man, I’m just not sure how much more intensification the environment can actually support. Could be an all time recon incoming if intensification is continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This storm has had a consistent EEL signature for basically the whole day. I would bank on the storm still intensifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Very curious to see what recon finds this afternoon. Certainly looks to still be intensifying, but man, I’m just not sure how much more intensification the environment can actually support. Could be an all time recon incoming if intensification is continuing. Anyone know when the next plane takes off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Anyone know when the next plane takes off? 5:30pm eastern I believe. Somebody correct me if I am wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 An absolute crime we don't have a plane in there right now - want to see the peak this gets to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, Alfoman said: An absolute crime we don't have a plane in there right now - want to see the peak this gets to. Agreed likely sub 900 now, pin hole contracting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Yeah, this is about as structurally sound as it gets. Hopefully the recon will get back in there soon to continue documenting it, but unless there’s a messy ERC the HAFS-B might be right in the structural changes in the next 24-30 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 For sure North of due E now. Yucatan is spared direct hit for sure and most likely even a "scrap".-- now moving well N of due E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 ADT raw T# is fluctuating some, but mostly steady over the last 2.5 hours. It is currently at 7.5. The final T# is starting to spool in now at 6.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like Mission #10 is already en-route? NOAA P3 headed SW from Lakeland 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 20 minutes ago, Alfoman said: An absolute crime we don't have a plane in there right now - want to see the peak this gets to. They’re certainly doing the best they can. They’re weenies as much as we are. But they have limited crews, planes, and procedural schedules to live by—probably some of it for safety reasons. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I could see it maxing out at 180 or 185 with perhaps an 890's pressure before degradation begins. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, eyewall said: I could see it maxing out at 180 or 185 with perhaps an 890's pressure before degradation begins. I agree as well, very plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 53 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Hurricane Milton has definitely started more ENE now Yep. It is definitely gaining latitude now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA42 Here's a link to the latest recon flight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They’re certainly doing the best they can. They’re weenies as much as we are. But they have limited crews, planes, and procedural schedules to live by—probably some of it for safety reasons. Absolutely agree - not blaming NOAA in the slightest, just saying I wish we did have some data coming in via recon at the moment. NOAA does the best they can given budget restraints and limited planes (plus the hazard like you said) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Yep. It is definitely gaining latitude now. Looks like it's already on the north edge of the most recent cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, CamSE-Wx said: Looks like it's already on the north edge of the most recent cone Stronger storms tend to end up poleward. More to grasp on to the westerlies, I still think there are more surprises in the way: this is in no way shape or form a typical Atlantic storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 When one looks at confluence of this loop -- you get a general idea of where Milton wants to head to. Look at convergence/divergence in the Tampa Area.---https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-96-1-25-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Alfoman said: Absolutely agree - not blaming NOAA in the slightest, just saying I wish we did have some data coming in via recon at the moment. NOAA does the best they can given budget restraints and limited planes (plus the hazard like you said) I know what you mean. I’m guessing they will raise intensity slightly at 5 a sent recon, and then we’ll see what’s going on under the hood when this latest plane gets there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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