drstuess Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 An all timer of a VDM. 912mb 158kt FL wind peak Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 11°C temperature difference in eyewall Flocks of birds observed in the eyeGodspeed our avian friendsSent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Well, with 175 mph winds, we're at an EF-4 tornado intensity...for reference, and around to a touch below the speed a commercial jet takes off at. At such speeds, a lot of stuff gets pulled in. What is notable is that for the plane to have seen birds, they would need to be relatively close to the plane. Bird types were not reported, but bird strikes can take out aircraft engines. They are lucky they did not hit the birds. I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like they sped up the next recon mission as its already in the Gulf heading to Milton. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 14 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane. Fair question but typically birds are reported if seen visually in aviation. Commercial ac also have onboard radar these days (to avoid microbursts and hail mainly). To keep on topic - for purposes of this storm, it's likely visual confirmation. Birds would show up as a radar reflectivity return but you couldn't identify them as "flock of birds" via radar alone. They saw them. Also fun fact for the group, NOAA9 appears to have launched. It is possible we will be watching some new records in the next few hours. Edit: appears that we have to wait until 1845 for TEAL73 to launch for the next LL recon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My father in law lives in Tampa Florida. He said they've already been told mandatory evacuation!! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane. "Observed" means they saw them visually. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Euro landfall looks like around St Pete beach 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Denis Phillips @DenisPhillipsWx Mandatory evacuation orders for Hillsborough county zones A & B along with all manufactured/mobile housing beginning today at 2:30pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Looks like they sped up the next recon mission as its already in the Gulf heading to Milton . Unfortunately that's an upper level dropsonde mission. Will be good for forecast but not to get updated storm data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 RAW T number up to 7.6 now, this is the highest in the basin since ETA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Euro shows reather pronounced weakening this run right before landfall. Almost 20 mb weaker in 12 hours leading up to landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro shows reather pronounced weakening this run right before landfall. Almost 20 mb weaker in 12 hours leading up to landfall. Completely different than the GFS. Interesting… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Outside of occasional wobbles, it does appear Milton has lost the southerly component to its trajectory. I think the odds of a clear miss of the Yucatán have gone up a lot since 12z today. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The last 12-24 hours before LF intensity is going to have some realistically large impact wind wise, but surge wise shouldn’t change much if a cat 4 exists 100 miles off the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Outside of occasional wobbles, it does appear Milton has lost the southerly component to its trajectory. I think the odds of a clear miss of the Yucatán have gone up a lot since 12z today. Clearly been N of due of East for sometime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 GFS seems like its on its own with regards to less weakening before landfall. Most other guidance seems to want to knock Milton down more prior to landfall compared to previous runs. Wont matter too much as far as the surge unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to GOES-19 animation and two images. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=mesoscale_01&x=785.6999969482422&y=1155.7999877929688&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=off&p[0]=band_03&opacity[0]=1&pause=20241007165154&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, MANDA said: Link to GOES-19 animation and two images. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=mesoscale_01&x=785.6999969482422&y=1155.7999877929688&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=off&p[0]=band_03&opacity[0]=1&pause=20241007165154&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 Can clearly see the stadium effect. Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton should easily pass N of 22N and 90W based on this trajectory--- any idea of the core coming in contact with the mainland Yucatan is not going to happen (it appears) --- https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-25-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I know there may be more than 1 factor but what should we be focusing on to dictate how far north Milton goes until it heads more east that’s influencing it until it makes landfall ? Is it that trough ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What a remarkable storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 While we wait for the next recon. Where are you guys getting these eye lightning strike images and videos from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma. Milton is unique in that it was the first rapidly intensify while moving southeastward earlier. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 52 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Completely different than the GFS. Interesting… Is it wise to consider the recent trend of storms not weakening (or even strengthening) upon landfall, or is it better to just take each storm on it's own? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 37 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: What a remarkable storm. Interesting tidbit that Milton replaced Michael on the 6 year rotating list of names. Michael was retired after slamming into the FL panhandle 6 years ago. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, drstuess said: Godspeed our avian friends Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk I'd love to see an interview or video where they show just how violent it was. I can't recall seeing flocks of birds in an official report either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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