Major Hurricane Milton

[drstuess]

  On 10/7/2024 at 5:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

An all timer of a VDM.
912mb
158kt FL wind peak
Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 
11°C temperature difference in eyewall 
Flocks of birds observed in the eye

Godspeed our avian friends

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Wannabehippie]

  On 10/7/2024 at 5:53 PM, Moderately Unstable said:

Well, with 175 mph winds, we're at an EF-4 tornado intensity...for reference, and around to a touch below the speed a commercial jet takes off at. At such speeds, a lot of stuff gets pulled in. What is notable is that for the plane to have seen birds, they would need to be relatively close to the plane. Bird types were not reported, but bird strikes can take out aircraft engines. They are lucky they did not hit the birds. 

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I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane.

[AccuChris]

Looks like they sped up the next recon mission as its already in the Gulf heading to Milton


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[Moderately Unstable]

  On 10/7/2024 at 5:55 PM, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane.

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Fair question but typically birds are reported if seen visually in aviation. Commercial ac also have onboard radar these days (to avoid microbursts and hail mainly). To keep on topic - for purposes of this storm, it's likely visual confirmation. Birds would show up as a radar reflectivity return but you couldn't identify them as "flock of birds" via radar alone. They saw them. 

 

Also fun fact for the group, NOAA9 appears to have launched. It is possible we will be watching some new records in the next few hours. Edit: appears that we have to wait until 1845 for TEAL73 to launch for the next LL recon. 

[winter_warlock]

  My father in law lives in Tampa  Florida. He said they've already  been told mandatory  evacuation!!  

[hazwoper]

  On 10/7/2024 at 5:55 PM, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane.

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"Observed" means they saw them visually. 

[SnowGoose69]

Euro landfall looks like around St Pete beach

[Allsnow]

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Hotair]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Denis Phillips

 

@DenisPhillipsWx

 

Mandatory evacuation orders for Hillsborough county zones A & B along with all manufactured/mobile housing beginning today at 2:30pm.

[WxWatcher007]

There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma.

[cptcatz]

  On 10/7/2024 at 5:57 PM, AccuChris said:

Looks like they sped up the next recon mission as its already in the Gulf heading to Milton


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Unfortunately that's an upper level dropsonde mission.  Will be good for forecast but not to get updated storm data.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Amped]

RAW T number up to 7.6 now, this is the highest in the basin since ETA.

[wncsnow]

Euro shows reather pronounced weakening this run right before landfall. Almost 20 mb weaker in 12 hours leading up to landfall. 

[jbenedet]

  On 10/7/2024 at 6:13 PM, wncsnow said:

Euro shows reather pronounced weakening this run right before landfall. Almost 20 mb weaker in 12 hours leading up to landfall. 

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Completely different than the GFS. Interesting…

[jbenedet]

Outside of occasional wobbles, it does appear Milton has lost the southerly component to its trajectory.  I think the odds of a clear miss of the Yucatán have gone up a lot since 12z today.

[DDweatherman]

The last 12-24 hours before LF intensity is going to have some realistically large impact wind wise, but surge wise shouldn’t change much if a cat 4 exists 100 miles off the coast. 

[Griizzcoat]

  On 10/7/2024 at 6:19 PM, jbenedet said:

Outside of occasional wobbles, it does appear Milton has lost the southerly component to its trajectory.  I think the odds of a clear miss of the Yucatán have gone up a lot since 12z today.

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Clearly been N of due of East for sometime.

[dan11295]

GFS seems like its on its own with regards to less weakening before landfall. Most other guidance seems to want to knock Milton down more prior to landfall compared to previous runs. Wont matter too much as far as the surge unfortunately. 

[MANDA]

Link to GOES-19 animation and two images.

 

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=mesoscale_01&x=785.6999969482422&y=1155.7999877929688&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=off&p[0]=band_03&opacity[0]=1&pause=20241007165154&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[SchaumburgStormer]

  On 10/7/2024 at 6:33 PM, MANDA said:

Link to GOES-19 animation and two images.

 

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-19&sec=mesoscale_01&x=785.6999969482422&y=1155.7999877929688&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=off&p[0]=band_03&opacity[0]=1&pause=20241007165154&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

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Can clearly see the stadium effect. Beautiful 

[Griizzcoat]

Milton should easily pass N of 22N and 90W based on this trajectory--- any idea of the core coming in contact with the mainland Yucatan is not going to happen (it appears) --- https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-25-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

[Weather Mike]

I know there may be more than 1 factor but what should we be focusing on to dictate how far north Milton goes until it heads more east that’s influencing it until it makes landfall ? Is it that trough ? 

[Floydbuster]

What a remarkable storm.

 

 

[Master of Disaster]

While we wait for the next recon. Where are you guys getting these eye lightning strike images and videos from? 

[bluewave]

  On 10/7/2024 at 6:01 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

There are only a handful of Atlantic systems with this kind of evolution. This is the second fastest hurricane to go from C1 to C5. Only behind Wilma.

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Milton is unique in that it was the first rapidly intensify while moving southeastward earlier. 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 10/7/2024 at 6:16 PM, jbenedet said:

Completely different than the GFS. Interesting…

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Is it wise to consider the recent trend of storms not weakening (or even strengthening) upon landfall, or is it better to just take each storm on it's own?

[MANDA]

  On 10/7/2024 at 6:39 PM, Floydbuster said:

What a remarkable storm.

 

 

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Interesting tidbit that Milton replaced Michael on the 6 year rotating list of names.  Michael was retired after slamming into the FL panhandle 6 years ago.

[nwohweather]

  On 10/7/2024 at 5:53 PM, drstuess said:

Godspeed our avian friends

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

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I'd love to see an interview or video where they show just how violent it was. I can't recall seeing flocks of birds in an official report either