NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Insane run. But the other models have started to thwart the weakening and dry air/shear combo closer into LF, so it’s hard to say. That will be more of a short term nowcast I’d say. Even at that 71mb weakening it sits at the same 955mb the GFS is at on the shore of the bay. Dry air issues beginning on Wednesday completely destroy the inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 That may have been the last pass for a bit. Next recon takes off at 2000z with an on station 2115z and will get a center fix a bit after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Dry air issues beginning on Wednesday completely destroy the inner core. The other models which had this before, including the GFS, abated some of that dry air quite a bit on todays 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Mandatory viewing from Levi 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 A 32mb pressure drop since the start of the recon fight. I think this rivals the one flight into Opal if I remeber correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, JasonOH said: That may have been the last pass for a bit. Next recon takes off at 2000z with an on station 2115z and will be a couple hours until the storm. They did a phenomenal job getting so many passes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is. And the more it weakens, the more complacent people will be, which isn’t good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Amped said: A 32mb pressure drop since the start of the recon fight. I think this rivals the one flight into Opal if I remeber correctly. Insane pressure drops. Those people on the recon aircrafts must be getting quite the bumpy ride. How long can it deepen at this rate? Are there any other comparisons other than Opal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Peak intensity this run is 174.6 kts (200MPH). But landfalls as a high end cat 1 24 hours later. 963mb is the landfall intensity on that run. That’s Cat 3, not Cat 1. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Wannabehippie said: Insane pressure drops. Those people on the recon aircrafts must be getting quite the bumpy ride. How long can it deepen at this rate? Are there any other comparisons other than Opal? Not with a single recon flight. I think Wilma deepened a lot between flights. Eta did also, the recon had to abort due to turbulence. I hope they're staying safe in this one. I'd be nervous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Crazy agreement between 12z HAFS-A, HAFS B and HMON -- you can throw a blanket over their landfalls right around or just north of the mouth of Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 An all timer of a VDM. 912mb 158kt FL wind peak Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 11°C temperature difference in eyewall Flocks of birds observed in the eye 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 And an all timer of an eyewall dropsonde- look at the mean wind in the lowest 150 m and the surface wind. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 911/ 175 mph on new update https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071735.shtml 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton putting on a clinic right now. Posted for posterity but we got on record a 35 mb drop for this flight alone. Absurd and we are blessed to be watching this show 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: And an all timer of an eyewall dropsonde- look at the mean wind in the lowest 150 m and the surface wind. That’s up there with the batshit drops from Dorian/Irma/Maria, and that’s the weakest quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is. One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This could very well now be a Cat 3 landfall with cat 5 storm surge. And it's moving east to west... Wow - Speechless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Last time I checked, 82kts = 94MPH. 963mb is cat 3 pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12z Euro a bit north and mostly aligned with hurricane model landfalls. Devastating outcome for TB and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bustmusty Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, gymengineer said: And an all timer of an eyewall dropsonde- look at the mean wind in the lowest 150 m and the surface wind. Looking at wind direction it makes it all the way from the nw side to the se eye wall at the surface. A full half rotation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12Z main global runs: Icon: Tampa Wed night (a bit N of 6Z/0Z’s Sarasota) vs 6Z’s Wed night/0Z’s Wed afternoon CMC: Sarasota Thu AM (>24 hrs sooner than 0Z’s Fri AM)(N of 0Z’s Pt Charlotte) JMA: Sarasota Thu AM (similar location and later than yesterday’s 12Z’s Wed evening GFS: Port Richey (25 miles N of Tampa) Wed night (slightly S of 6Z’s Hudson and S of 0Z’s just N of Crystal River) UKMET: Bradenton, MUCH further N of 0Z’s Naples and stronger; late Wed evening (later than 0Z’s Wed afternoon) Euro: Tampa Wed night, near 6Z and just barely N of 0Z’s Bradenton; earlier than 6Z’s Thu morning but a little later than 0Z’s Wed evening *So, 12Z has much smaller range than 0Z from 25 miles N of Tampa (Port Richey) to 50 miles S of Tampa (Sarasota)..so only 75 miles vs 0Z’s range of 200 miles *From N to S 12Z: GFS, Icon/Euro, UKMET, CMC/JMA *Timing of 12Z: ranges from late Wed evening to Thu morning 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, NJwx85 said: Tropical systems are categorized by maximum sustained winds, not surface pressure. Take your argument to banter 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Tropical systems are categorized by maximum sustained winds, not surface pressure. The least intense Cat 5 was 943mb. Hurricane Francine in 1971 for reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 While we wait for the next recon mission ADT final and raw T numbers are 6.0 and 7.5 respectively. The RI has made ADT slow to respond so the raw T number is probably more applicable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: An all timer of a VDM. 912mb 158kt FL wind peak Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 11°C temperature difference in eyewall Flocks of birds observed in the eye I wonder where those birds got dragged in from. The Yucatan? Most recent NHC report. 175mph winds. Can those increase any further today, more pressure drops? This is absolutely insane with what they were just a few hours ago.1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W Moving: E at 9 mph Min pressure: 911 mb Max sustained: 175 mp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 25 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Mandatory viewing from Levi Great commentary from Levi including the potential for a sting jet at the time of landfall as shown on HWRF. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: I wonder where those birds got dragged in from. The Yucatan? Most recent NHC report. 175mph winds. Can those increase any further today, more pressure drops? This is absolutely insane with what they were just a few hours ago.1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W Moving: E at 9 mph Min pressure: 911 mb Max sustained: 175 mp Zero doubt in my mind that it’s continuing to intensify. Whether the next recon flight confirms that…idk. This is remarkable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: I wonder where those birds got dragged in from. The Yucatan? Most recent NHC report. 175mph winds. Can those increase any further today, more pressure drops? This is absolutely insane with what they were just a few hours ago.1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W Moving: E at 9 mph Min pressure: 911 mb Max sustained: 175 mp Well, with 175 mph winds, we're at an EF-4 tornado intensity...for reference, and around to a touch below the speed a commercial jet takes off at. At such speeds, a lot of stuff gets pulled in. What is notable is that for the plane to have seen birds, they would need to be relatively close to the plane. Bird types were not reported, but bird strikes can take out aircraft engines. They are lucky they did not hit the birds. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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