Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Major Hurricane Milton


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Insane run. But the other models have started to thwart the weakening and dry air/shear combo closer into LF, so it’s hard to say. That will be more of a short term nowcast I’d say. Even at that 71mb weakening it sits at the same 955mb the GFS is at on the shore of the bay. 

Dry air issues beginning on Wednesday completely destroy the inner core.

Qm7lwx0.png

0rS2VWS.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

That may have been the last pass for a bit. Next recon takes off at 2000z with an on station 2115z and will be a couple hours until the storm. 

They did a phenomenal job getting so many passes in.

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is. 

And the more it weakens, the more complacent people will be, which isn’t good.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Amped said:

A 32mb pressure drop since the start of the recon fight. I think this rivals the one flight into Opal if I remeber correctly.

Insane pressure drops. Those people on the recon aircrafts must be getting quite the bumpy ride.
How long can it deepen at this rate? Are there any other comparisons other than Opal?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

Insane pressure drops. Those people on the recon aircrafts must be getting quite the bumpy ride.
How long can it deepen at this rate? Are there any other comparisons other than Opal?

Not with a single recon flight. I think Wilma deepened a lot between flights.  Eta did also, the recon had to abort due to turbulence. I hope they're staying safe in this one. I'd be nervous.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Milton putting on a clinic right now.  Posted for posterity but we got on record a 35 mb drop for this flight alone.  Absurd and we are blessed to be watching this show

73442B35-FDF4-43B3-9F54-C1D72995F32D.jpeg

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And an all timer of an eyewall dropsonde- look at the mean wind in the lowest 150 m and the surface wind.

Screenshot 2024-10-07 133607.gif

That’s up there with the batshit drops from Dorian/Irma/Maria, and that’s the weakest quad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is. 

One big difference is Katrina was already quite large when it reached cat 5. A medium/large major hurricane making landfall in the GOM is going to have tremendous surge potential regardless, but I am not sure the comparison is appropriate.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And an all timer of an eyewall dropsonde- look at the mean wind in the lowest 150 m and the surface wind.

Screenshot 2024-10-07 133607.gif

Looking at wind direction it makes it all the way from the nw side to the se eye wall at the surface. A full half rotation 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z main global runs:

Icon: Tampa Wed night (a bit N of 6Z/0Z’s Sarasota) vs 6Z’s Wed night/0Z’s Wed afternoon

CMC: Sarasota Thu AM (>24 hrs sooner than 0Z’s Fri AM)(N of 0Z’s Pt Charlotte)

JMA: Sarasota Thu AM (similar location and later than yesterday’s 12Z’s Wed evening

GFS: Port Richey (25 miles N of Tampa) Wed night (slightly S of 6Z’s Hudson and S of 0Z’s just N of Crystal River)

UKMET: Bradenton, MUCH further N of 0Z’s Naples and stronger; late Wed evening (later than 0Z’s Wed afternoon)

 Euro: Tampa Wed night, near 6Z and just barely N of 0Z’s Bradenton; earlier than 6Z’s Thu morning but a little later than 0Z’s Wed evening

 *So, 12Z has much smaller range than 0Z from 25 miles N of Tampa (Port Richey) to 50 miles S of Tampa (Sarasota)..so only 75 miles vs 0Z’s range of 200 miles

*From N to S 12Z: GFS, Icon/Euro, UKMET, CMC/JMA

*Timing of 12Z: ranges from late Wed evening to Thu morning

 

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While we wait for the next recon mission ADT final and raw T numbers are 6.0 and 7.5 respectively. The RI has made ADT slow to respond so the raw T number is probably more applicable right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

An all timer of a VDM.

912mb

158kt FL wind peak

Severe turbulence in the NW & NE eyewall 

11°C temperature difference in eyewall 

Flocks of birds observed in the eye

I wonder where those birds got dragged in from. The Yucatan?
Most recent NHC report. 175mph winds. Can those increase any further today, more pressure drops? This is absolutely insane with what they were just a few hours ago.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 911 mb
Max sustained: 175 mp

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder where those birds got dragged in from. The Yucatan?
Most recent NHC report. 175mph winds. Can those increase any further today, more pressure drops? This is absolutely insane with what they were just a few hours ago.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 911 mb
Max sustained: 175 mp

Zero doubt in my mind that it’s continuing to intensify. Whether the next recon flight confirms that…idk. This is remarkable. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder where those birds got dragged in from. The Yucatan?
Most recent NHC report. 175mph winds. Can those increase any further today, more pressure drops? This is absolutely insane with what they were just a few hours ago.

1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.7°N 91.3°W
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 911 mb
Max sustained: 175 mp

Well, with 175 mph winds, we're at an EF-4 tornado intensity...for reference, and around to a touch below the speed a commercial jet takes off at. At such speeds, a lot of stuff gets pulled in. What is notable is that for the plane to have seen birds, they would need to be relatively close to the plane. Bird types were not reported, but bird strikes can take out aircraft engines. They are lucky they did not hit the birds. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...