konksw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Wilma was 882. In the Caribbean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Very impressive how the eye has continued to warm the past hour on Sat .. Expecting another big drop in pressure on the next pass (15-20 mins ish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Wilma was 882. That was recorded in the Caribbean. I was on the Wright weather board early that morning when that pressure was recorded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Very impressive how the eye has continued to warm the past hour on Sat .. Expecting another big drop in pressure on the next pass (15-20 mins ish) IR showing positive temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 8 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Not in the Gulf Rita was 895---Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rita passed over the extremely warm Loop Current during the midday hours of September 21, enabling continued strengthening. As a result, the hurricane's wind field significantly expanded and the storm's barometric pressure quickly fell.[4] By 18:00 UTC that day, Rita attained Category 5 hurricane intensity,[13] the highest category on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.[14] Rita's intensification phase was accompanied by an unprecedentedly abundant outbreak of lightning within the storm's eyewall.[15] Favorable conditions allowed for additional strengthening, and at 0300 UTC on September 22, Rita reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 895 mbar (hPa; 26.43 inHg), making it the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico and up until that point the third strongest hurricane in Atlantic history.[4][16][17] At the time, it was located 310 mi (500 km) south of the Mississippi River Delta.[4] 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Hi everyone! Please keep the banter and imby questions in the banter thread. If you find your posts disappearing, this would be a clue to take it to banter. Now back to your regular cat 5 hurricane discussion and thanks for coming to my Ted talk 4 3 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 It’s hard to tell for sure, but it appears there is a touch of a northerly motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Very impressive and historic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Extrapolated 914.4mb 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Contamination aside, not every day you see almost 200mph SFMR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 914mb on recon is just incredible that this has continued to tank so quickly hour-after-hour all day so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 914mb extrapolated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 154 FL and unflagged 176 knot SFMR, may also be a bit lower than 914 given the wind reading it occurred with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The RI rate is now 7.5 mb/hr. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Thats 11mb extrap decrease in 1:20 so about 8mb/HR drop... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Given the warming of the eye, the pinhole nature, and recon data, this is continuing to rapidly intensify. With no end in sight yet. Extraordinary. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Contamination aside, not every day you see almost 200mph SFMR. 180kts (207mph) surface wind estimate, yeah we very rarely see that in the ATL Basin, even when it’s suspected SFMR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 i assume this plane will have to finish it's mission soon so we may not know how low it goes before it bombs out. I don't see another plane en route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The SFMR readings definitely look suspicious. I hope they put a dropsonde down in the eyewall on this pass so that we can confirm the FL-to-sfc relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Meanwhile, the HAFS-B gets Milton down to 884 mb at 9z Wednesday, then increases by a whopping 71 mb in the next 18 hours. The way things are going, not sure which of those is less believable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, beanskip said: Meanwhile, the HAFS-B gets Milton down to 884 mb at 9z Wednesday, then increases by a whopping 71 mb in the next 18 hours. The way things are going, not sure which of those is less believable. Some of that may be after Landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The insane SFMR was in the storms weakest quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, allgame830 said: Milton is really maxing out its potential in the area that it is in. Historical! Hopefully the west coast of FL sees nothing like what we are seeing now Damage is already being done. The lower this thing goes, the more surge it begins to carry along. Even if winds start to ease, surge is going to be devastating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Brian5671 said: Some of that may be after Landfall? You would think so, but it's still well off Tampa Bay at 3z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Meanwhile, the HAFS-B gets Milton down to 884 mb at 9z Wednesday, then increases by a whopping 71 mb in the next 18 hours. The way things are going, not sure which of those is less believable. Insane run. But the other models have started to thwart the weakening and dry air/shear combo closer into LF, so it’s hard to say. That will be more of a short term nowcast I’d say. Even at that 71mb weakening it sits at the same 955mb the GFS is at on the shore of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Reminder that SFMR are not being used operationally by the NHC for the rest of the season. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, NJwx85 said: Peak intensity this run is 174.6 kts (200MPH). But landfalls as a high end cat 1 24 hours later. Way stronger than other guidance at peak, while the other models have it 940-950mb at LF (cat 3-ish we’d assume). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I would ignore those very high SFMR readings. Just because it's not flagged doesn't mean it is accurate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Peak intensity this run is 174.6 kts (200MPH). But landfalls as a high end cat 1 24 hours later. With a Cat 5+ surge. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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