BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The mother of all EEL signatures 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, Retrobuc said: What are the chances this continues to move north beyond TPA and into the Cedar Key area? The cone is the 1σ (68%) envelope. It is expected that tropical cyclones will deviate outside one specific side of the cone about 16% of the time. Given that Cedar Key is just inside the cone on the north side you can infer about a 20% chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The eye has warmed significantly in the last 15 minutes. Next pass should be under 920mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: The eye has warmed significantly in the last 15 minutes. Next pass should be under 920mb. Thing is going to run at sub 900 at this rate. Absolutely incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This storm has intensified quicker than even the most aggressive models predicted. The northern Yucatan coast is about to get buzz sawed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Saying nothing of what happens from here, this is a tremendous victory for intensity modeling and the HAFS. The NHC telegraphed this was possible before RI even took place and that’s in large part due to the incredible advances in intensity modeling. Yes, it happened faster than anticipated, but it wasn’t a surprise. 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Thing is going to run at sub 900 at this rate. Absolutely incredible This has been one of the most impressive weather days I've ever followed. Absolutely bonkers how much this thing is bombing out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Thing is going to run at sub 900 at this rate. Absolutely incredible Maybe. MPI is showing 890-900 so I think 905-910mb may be a good ceiling to work off of 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, anemone said: This storm has intensified quicker than even the most aggressive models predicted. The northern Yucatan coast is about to get buzz sawed. The rate of intensification is off the charts. Some of the hurricane models have had higher peak intensity at times like 890mb when passing over the loop current. How strong this actually gets will obviously come down to timing of EWRC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What was the hour count from TS to Cat 5? Like 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Not great bob 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: What was the hour count from TS to Cat 5? Like 36 hours? More like 24 hrs isn't it? Think it was still a TC 11 am yesterday (but someone can correct me if I'm wrong there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Not great bob We need to save this for posterity. That’s absolutely absurd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: More like 24 hrs isn't it? Think it was still a TC 11 am yesterday (but someone can correct me if I'm wrong there) 65mph/991mb yesterday at 11am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 HAFS-B, 6z run vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We need to save this for posterity. That’s absolutely absurd Indeed. 22mb drop within a single mission. And I am sure that crew got the snot kicked out of them too. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Category 5 hurricane moving west to east in the GOM, not something you see everyday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said: HAFS-B, 6z run vs 12z Next panel is wild. 897mb. 160kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 What will this do to the sea surface temperatures once it passes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 10 minutes ago, JasonOH said: Maybe. MPI is showing 890-900 so I think 905-910mb may be a good ceiling to work off of I believe Allen in 1980 is the lowest ever recorded in the GOM at 909. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Seminole said: I believe Allen in 1980 is the lowest ever recorded in the GOM at 909. Katrina was 902mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Next panel is wild. 897mb. 160kts. That would be a record for the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Seminole said: I believe Allen in 1980 is the lowest ever recorded in the GOM at 909. Rita was 895 mb. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 unreal. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, pazzo83 said: Katrina was 902mb 1 minute ago, Seminole said: I believe Allen in 1980 is the lowest ever recorded in the GOM at 909. Rita at 895 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 lol - just rewriting the playbook at this point with these storms https://x.com/burgwx/status/1843330270243742049 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Can’t get over this. Inflow and outflow unreal. Pinhole eye, seeming stadium effect in it. It’s just humbling as hell that this was a teeny weeny baby storm yesterday morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said: Can’t get over this. Inflow and outflow unreal. Pinhole eye, seeming stadium effect in it. It’s just humbling as hell that this was a teeny weeny baby storm yesterday morning. It’s amazing how jet interactions have helped a number of our hurricanes this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, 09-10 analogy said: Wilma was 882. Not in the Gulf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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