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Major Hurricane Milton


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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Pressure too high on initialization so hard to say what it hits as-use globals for track but not intensity?

I would focus on whether or not the models are showing weakening upon approach (which GFS seems to be showing steady state).  The globals can’t resolve the pressure of these systems completely accurately.  I’m sure mets can chime in on this

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7 minutes ago, Griizzcoat said:

another worst case for TBA from GFS --

sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png

The initialization pressure is a joke, but it does show deepening in the 12-24 hours leading up to landfall. 965mb 00z Wednesday, 949mb 00z Thursday. Minimal dry air issues.

14KPYVE.png

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3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What feature is supposed to cause Milton to degrade before reaching Tampa?

Its a small storm so an ERC which appears likely in the next 18-24 hours likely takes it to a 2-3, it may then strengthen again slightly but probably remains a 3, it should then get impacted by shear.  I think it comes in between 110-130mph 

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7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What feature is supposed to cause Milton to degrade before reaching Tampa?

I’m not sure, the shear direction aligns with the storm motion. The models probably just got it wrong.

 

EDIT: I’d like to hear from a meteorologist about this, I understand Jet = dead storm lul, but most storms aren’t moving East. 

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The GFS likely restrengthens Milton because it's passing over the Loop Current tomorrow night at the same time it gets a synoptic boost from the upper jet. This is entirely reasonable but ignores the uncertainties with timing of eyewall replacement cycles. The 00/06Z hurricane models trended towards less dry air getting into the circulation near landfall, but weakening is certainly possible given the large reservoir of continental air to the north and west. Too soon to say for sure.image.thumb.gif.00bab6176fe5c1d488eac8bd5b958f07.gif

 

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