Wmsptwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, TPAwx said: 12z models rolling out. ICON approaching TB landfall Wed evening at 966 966 would be pretty optimal compared to what we see now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, TPAwx said: NHC track shifted north, right over TB. Not the update I wanted for MBY, but is what it is. Might be one of the most ominous forecast graphics I've ever seen from the NHC; perhaps short of last years' for Otis that effectively were "OH BTW A CAT 5 IS GONNA MAKE LANDFALL IN ACAPULCO IN LIKE 6 HOURS OOPS SRY." 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: I know we don’t focus on exact track this far out, but this has to be one of the most devastating hypothetical tracks ever put out by NHC And it's not just the landfall location, but the NE heading to that landfall. The worst possible outcome 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 28 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Radar out of Sabancuy, Mexico. At that distance, the beam height is high, but Milton's eyewall is very defined and intense. This radar shows the likely future new eye wall forming as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 966 would be pretty optimal compared to what we see now Globals (apart from the GFS for some reason) have difficulty resolving TC core intensity and their pressures should never be taken verbatim. Worst offenders IMO are UKMET, ICON and Euro, in that order. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: And it's not just the landfall location, but the NE heading to that landfall. The worst possible outcome Exactly. Allot of very serious inland wind damage. Like complete collapse of the power grid type damage. Disney would never be the same if this verified. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 I think there’s still enormous value in looking at ensembles, and I think that’s why we’re seeing slight north ticks from the NHC. It’s also important to highlight that the ensembles continue to show northward sensitivity to a stronger storm. Given where we are right now with the structure and intensity of Milton, I’d lean north of Tampa at this time. Obviously still time for things to change. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The organization is still improving on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Still need to watch srn eyewall near Yucatan. It's going to be close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, user13 said: wow eye clearing 1 minute ago, Amped said: The organization is still improving on IR. Just in time for that SW/NE pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 9 minutes ago, jrips27 said: I know we don’t focus on exact track this far out, but this has to be one of the most devastating hypothetical tracks ever put out by NHC That track goes right over MacDill AFB. A lot of middle east support assets with SOCOM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 966 would be pretty optimal compared to what we see now icon pressure was to high with helene and probably will be the same with milton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, nycwinter said: icon pressure was to high with helene and probably will be the same with milton.. ICON also initialized at 981-not even close 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Closing in on a SW to NE pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 That motion on radar really looks like part of eyewall could come on shore in Yucatan. Curious to see what effect this has on Milton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Radtechwxman said: That motion on radar really looks like part of eyewall could come on shore in Yucatan. Curious to see what effect this has on Milton. probably not much given the terrain there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: That motion on radar really looks like part of eyewall could come on shore in Yucatan. Curious to see what effect this has on Milton. I don't think we see that significant of a track error, it'll probably make deviations E once it feels the impact of the land mass and miss. I could see it coming within 20-30 miles but not moving onshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 19 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: This radar shows the likely future new eye wall forming as well. Yeah, it does look like an ERC could start but probably not before a little more intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still need to watch srn eyewall near Yucatan. It's going to be close. Was it Irma that eventually brushed the coast of Cuba when it wasn't forecasted to do so? Maybe this one ends up doing the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wow, eye really warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think there’s still enormous value in looking at ensembles, and I think that’s why we’re seeing slight north ticks from the NHC. It’s also important to highlight that the ensembles continue to show northward sensitivity to a stronger storm. Given where we are right now with the structure and intensity of Milton, I’d lean north of Tampa at this time. Obviously still time for things to change. Telling you bro, Clearwater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Was it Irma that eventually brushed the coast of Cuba when it wasn't forecasted to do so? Maybe this one ends up doing the same thing? That was the one-but it was moving E to W and perhaps pulled into Cuba....this one might be repelled a bit given the W to E motion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: probably not much given the terrain there. I would think it would have some effect landfall or not. There will be a period of time where southerly inflow will be coming off land and Milton is not moving fast so I believe there will be some degradation to the structure as Milton passes close to but off the Yucatan coast for a period of many hours. We'll see. No denying the events of this morning though with spectacular intensification and textbook satellite appearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Recon seems to have done a loop just outside of the southern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Looks like recon is circling now just shy of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 924 extrap. 158 flight level. Lord bless it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Milton now looks to be moving N of due E. Barely. But for sure not S of due E anymore. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-25-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Pressure and FL winds supportive of a category 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: Recon seems to have done a loop just outside of the southern eyewall. The stuff these hurricane hunters do inside storms makes me feel like an absolute fool for any type of flight anxiety I have. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: 924 extrap. 158 flight level. Lord bless it. No words for that rate of intensification. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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