Windspeed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Radar out of Sabancuy, Mexico. At that distance, the beam height is high, but Milton's eyewall is very defined and intense. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Yucatan is going to get raked if this current motion doesn't correct to ENE. Losing latitude still with every passing satellite shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The visible sat loop this morning is mesmerizing. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Radar... looks like it is trying to turn back eastward there for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Location aside, how often do we see a straight up west to east moving Category 5 hurricane? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Radar... May be just a wobble but a bit more Eastward motion now. At least it might miss the built up barrier islands and brush the national park instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 That last dropsonde measured 935 mb with a 17 kt wind. That's good for at least 934 mb and possibly 933 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1843301099454787848 Eric Webb: The thing that really concerns me w/ Hurricane #Milton's unexpected bout of explosive intensification this morning is the fact that this storm will now have **a lot** more time to churn & push water/storm surge onto the west coast of Florida in a few days. If you want a reasonable worst case scenario for Hurricane #Milton's maximum *potential* storm surge in/around places like Tampa Bay, take the current 8-12 foot storm surge forecast & double it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like as soon as it crossed 92°W around 13z it turned due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Latest VDM has 935mb and a 8nm wide eye. Now that’s a pinhole. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest VDM has 935mb and a 8nm wide eye. Now that’s a pinhole. Wilma-esque 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Not much terrain to impact structure significantly, even with a close pass. Baring any dry air intrusion, which seems unlikely, the next 24 hours are going to be full of amazing satellite loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Eye really clearing on IR, pressure likely going to continue to crater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 NOAA3 mission 7 dropsonde at 12:54Z was 941 mb with 17 kts. AF309 mission 8 dropsonde at 14:12Z was 935 mb with 17 kts. That is almost 5 mb per hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 933 mb / 155 mph as of 11 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Recon is going to make one more pass before it has to fly home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Going to be a very close call for the coast, but it probably misses. edit: Mexican coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Dvorak having an incredibly difficult time keeping up, but raw T is at 7.1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 933 mb / 155 kt as of 11 AMMPH?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Going to be a very close call for the coast, but it probably misses. Which coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Just now, NavarreDon said: MPH? . Mph yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Which coast? The Yucatan coastline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, NavarreDon said: MPH? . Yes. Sorry, 155 mph max sustained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 3rd all time with an 80kt intensity increase in 24 hours per the NHC (Wilma & Felix) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Wow!!!Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420241000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satelliteimages show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewallpresentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records).. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 NHC track shifted north, right over TB. Not the update I wanted for MBY, but is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The dropsonde that reported 127 kts at the surface also reported a peak in the whole profile of 145 kts at 910 mb. The most recent drop in the NW eyewall only reported 105 kts at the surface but a remarkable 183 kts at 900 mb. It probably got entrained into a gust, but still...that's 211 mph! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: NHC track shifted north, right over TB. Not the update I wanted for MBY, but is what it is. This has a scary feel down here. I’ll be getting back towards home tomorrow. Had thoughts of “chasing” this down here, but that’s a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I know we don’t focus on exact track this far out, but this has to be one of the most devastating hypothetical tracks ever put out by NHC 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12z models rolling out. ICON approaching TB landfall Wed evening at 966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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