Maestrobjwa Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Hopefully (maybe?) if it’s intensity is peaking right now, it’ll slowly begin to weaken well before coastal impact With the trend the last several years of maintaining (or gaining) strength right up to land fall, it's hard to assume that. Not the most scientific take in the world, but...it's happening so often now it seems! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, dan11295 said: 12Z track guidance from tropical tidbits seems to be zeroing in on Sarasota area for LF. lot of the northern models shifted south. Better for Tampa Bay, although that entire coastal area is fairly densely populated. Obviously still too early to rule out to a LF north of there yet. Want to see the GFS start moving south. Although that entire coastal area is fairly densely populated. Intensity guidance has 100-110 kt at LF, while on a weakening trend. The spaghetti models have had a center on Sarasota for a while now. The GFS, HAFS, HWRF, and I believe HMON all go over Tampa or just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 Thanks to the mod that changed the title. I was too busy looking at recon’s jaw dropping data. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like Milton hit a piece of a loop current? Seems like something similar to what Katrina did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Looks like a SE movement right now-has time to make the turn more E then ENE/NE but if it doesn't it would be obviously weaker with any Yucatan interaction or even a LF there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Rarely am I left speechless. Wow, just wow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a SE movement right now-has time to make the turn but if it doesn't it would be obviously weaker with any Yucatan interaction or even a LF there. The 06z HWRF never brings the center South of 22N which is already off based on the latest advisory position of 21.7N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Have they done a recon pass through the blob INE of the storm, it looks nasty too as it’s on entity. That should get swallowed up at some point correct? . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The 6z Euro is a worst case track for Tampa. Makes landfall right around Clearwater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I don’t see the weakening immediately prior to landfall on the latest global guidance. That was clear consensus up to this point, but seems to be lost at the moment. Here’s today’s 6z GFS for example 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 22 minutes ago, TriPol said: My god... I'm blown away. Just now, TriPol said: There won't be a Clearwater left after this. The histrionics without any substantive commentary isn't helpful. 6 1 1 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 11°C increase from eyewall to eye with hail/graupel. Pressure falling rapidly. No sign of outer band. With such a small RMW, if Milton gets into the 920s, we're most likely going to see a Category 5 status within a few more hours. It's certainly not done bottoming out.Edit: "Grapple"... lol... Also, RMW (radius of maximum wind), not VDM (vortex data message). Covering nights, and I need to sleep now, but you know why I'm not. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I don’t see the weakening immediately prior to landfall on the latest global guidance. That was clear consensus up to this point, but seems to be lost at the moment. Here’s today’a 6z GFS for example I think there will be some of course whenever this undergoes (another) ERC, but I never fully bought into substantial weakening in the hours before landfall for reasons I mentioned last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: 11°C increase from eyewall to eye with hail/grapple. Pressure falling rapidly. No sign of outer band. With such a small VDM, if Milton gets into the 920s, we're most likely going to see a Category 5 status within a few more hours. It's certainly not done bottoming out. Considering we are on the cusp of 5 already I think that's almost a lock at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The CDO was still a hair ragged in the nw quadrant first thing this morning, but just over the last couple hours it has become significantly more circular and uniform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Northern part of the CDO expanding creating a more symmetrical look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Nibor said: Northern part of the CDO expanding creating a more symmetrical look now. That’s a sign of the storm maximizing the environment. I think we go 915mb 165mph before an EWRC. Watching history today… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: What I never understood about small storms with small eyes is why they rapidly strengthen but that they seem to weaken way more following ERCs than big storms do. You’d think it would be the opposite of that but you think of Patricia or Opal those things straight up got killed by ERCs. Then again both also made landfall soon after so we don’t really know if they had another day or two over water what might have happened Compared to one with a stable core, tropical cyclones undergoing EWRCs are more vulnerable to disruption by unfavorable environmental conditions; even transient ones, such as dry air entrainment from even modest amounts of shear. This is what usually causes substantial weakening post-EWRC, not the EWRC itself. If the conditions remain favorable and the cyclone has enough time before land; it can/likely will resume intensification as the new eyewall takes over and contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 There’s def a double-edged sword element to the exact track. I see evidence of a PRE collocated with the north/west quadrant of Milton. The southeast section looks relatively dry. The southeast section will carry the highest winds/surge/coastal flooding but the northwest section will have all the fresh water flooding risk. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 11°C increase from eyewall to eye with hail/graupel. Pressure falling rapidly. No sign of outer band. With such a small VDM, if Milton gets into the 920s, we're most likely going to see a Category 5 status within a few more hours. It's certainly not done bottoming out. Recon is now looking to conduct a SE to NW pass. It would not surprise me at all if Milton has cleared that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 stunning intensification. Another generational hurricane heading towards Florida (seems like generational is being used too much these days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Recon is now looking to conduct a SE to NW pass. It would not surprise me at all if Milton has cleared that threshold. 22 hours from 55 kt TS to Cat 5 would have to be a record for the Atlantic. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 It's very impressive, but it looks to be the most obvious RI we've ever seen. This storm has had the absolute perfect conditions and precocious structure. It has lead a charmed life. I'm interested to see how it will integrate it's one imperfection as it continues to deepen - that blob to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goctican Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 hours ago, Richie said: The histrionics without any substantive commentary isn't helpful. Yes, please remember. Some of us are just regular everyday weather nerds in Clearwater with families, and we're lurking here for good info. Usually just out of interest, but in this case, to make the best decisions for our families as we ride this out. (None flood, none evacuation zone here) 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 933 extrap, an insane rate of intensification 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, BYG Jacob said: 933 extrap, an insane rate of intensification Flagged 142 knot SFMR, but unflagged 136 knot and 139 knot FL. Almost a category 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 That gradient is wild. Something like a 40 mb rise in pressure over about 7 miles 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, olafminesaw said: That gradient is wild. Something like a 40 mb rise in pressure over about 7 miles A hallmark of a legendary cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 7 Author Share Posted October 7 It’s extremely close to becoming a 5, but we have to pay attention to how this faster intensification and time between an ERC impacts track, surge potential, and future intensity for FL. The NHC advisory should be telling, but I’m guessing with this peak, a category four at landfall looks increasingly possible. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 MPI for where Milton is, is around 890-900mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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