nj2va Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Hurricane Milton: Location: 22.5°N 94.0°WMoving: E at 6 mphMin pressure: 988 mbMax sustained: 80 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro: back N to Tampa from Sarasota 6Z/0Z and with it stronger than those runs. Landfall is near 8PM Wed. As depicted landfall is right on the southern edge of the Bay, near Anna Maria Island, certainly not definitive at this point and resolution is not completely clear on the panel. Terrible solution for Sarasota south but likely less extreme for TB, water is pushed out. As usual every 10-20 miles could make a world of difference for peak surge impacts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 6 minutes ago, TPAwx said: As depicted landfall is right on the southern edge of the Bay, certainly not definitive at this point and resolution is not completely clear on the panel. Terrible solution for Sarasota south but likely less extreme for TB, water is pushed out. As usual every 10-20 miles could make a world of difference for peak surge impacts. And from experience, those 10-20 miles may not be known until hours before landfall. That’s why it’s so important for everyone to be prepared along the potential landfall zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Michael Watkins on X states “recon plan (issued yesterday) has a synoptic surveillance mission scheduled to start soon - it will sample the steering environment to the north - these data will be included in the 0Z global models - which start coming out around midnight. Lots of flights on the docket” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061748 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major flooding possible. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and possible in the watch area on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Minor coastal flooding could also occur along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from large swells. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 24 minutes ago, beanskip said: Hurricane models really showing this pre-landfall weakening -- 12z HAFS-B show about 60 mb of weakening in the last 20 hours before landfall. This would be a historic collapse if it verified. Katrina, Opal and Lilly fell apart on final approach, but the pressure came up like 25mb on all of those storms. 60mb could be the difference between a Cat5 and a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 16 minutes ago, beanskip said: Verbatim 12z Euro literally takes the eye right up the mouth of Tampa Bay into Hillsborough Bay and the Tampa docks. Will never happen (gulp) but quite a breathtaking track. That would be the absolute worst case scenario. I've heard of something like that for decades. Horrifying to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 The HWRF is still north of Tampa by 20-40 miles 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, TPAwx said: That's identical to my First Call last night...hope its off. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Which is just unrealistic in my mind, either the strongest point is too strong or the weakening is probably overdone The 900mb crap is obviously overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, Amped said: This would be a historic collapse if it verified. Katrina, Opal and Lilly fell apart on final approach, but the pressure came up like 25mb on all of those storms. 60mb could be the difference between a Cat5 and a TS. I would expect a 20-30mb rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 985 mb per recon dropsonde..... 3 mb drop between passes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 989 to 986 between passes in about an hour and 20 minutes. If it keeps up this rate I don't think the low 900s is out of the question tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: 989 to 986 between passes in about an hour and 20 minutes. If it keeps up this rate I don't think the low 900s is out of the question tomorrow. A lot will also depend on eyewall replacement cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Definitely a nail biter for Tampa/St Pete, 30 mile or so difference between possibly historic surge or the bay getting pushed out again. Yikes. The weakening trend would help but if it really ramps up beforehand the surge impact would be largely baked in like with Katrina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Definitely a nail biter for Tampa/St Pete, 30 mile or so difference between possibly historic surge or the bay getting pushed out again. Yikes. The weakening trend would help but if it really ramps up beforehand the surge impact would be largely baked in like with Katrina. Yeah I think the more determinant factor for Tampa is north or south of the bay more than anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 18Z SHIPS is still favorable for rapid intensification (no surprise). The model is initialized at 70 kts with the odds of 55 kts of further intensification at 21% for SHIPS and 97% for DTOPS and consensus of the two SDCON at 53% suggesting that 125 kts (category 4) is not only possible, but perhaps likely. Of note is the shear, at least that which is modeled by the GFS track, which increases significantly as Milton approaches land and is the primary factor in the decline in intensity prior to landfall. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 103 89 70 48 32 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 80 88 95 101 108 112 107 91 64 45 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 81 90 98 104 114 117 117 110 68 55 42 30 22 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 11 14 14 13 14 12 31 35 42 44 57 69 67 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 6 4 6 6 0 2 7 2 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 218 221 220 199 219 214 221 215 223 226 225 227 233 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.7 30.2 30.2 29.4 28.8 27.7 27.3 27.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 171 171 172 172 172 173 160 150 135 129 130 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 2 2 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 62 60 53 50 47 51 54 56 44 37 37 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 21 23 27 30 32 35 35 30 24 19 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 56 68 70 70 69 118 121 102 81 78 56 38 14 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 21 14 14 30 17 39 32 101 88 81 18 19 0 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -9 -11 -15 -13 -11 1 6 -1 -41 -55 -93 -45 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 347 359 300 223 167 193 310 266 -7 61 365 542 673 879 1097 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.5 23.3 24.4 25.8 27.8 29.0 29.6 30.5 31.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.4 92.7 91.7 90.8 88.7 86.8 84.7 82.7 80.2 77.1 73.7 70.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 16 13 10 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 43 37 33 57 32 25 34 34 17 11 10 14 N/A N/A SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.6% 58.3% 45.4% 40.3% 22.7% 32.9% 21.3% 16.5% Logistic: 33.2% 46.0% 45.9% 33.9% 9.6% 15.4% 4.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 30.1% 8.4% 19.2% 31.5% 13.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 31.0% 37.5% 36.8% 35.3% 15.3% 16.4% 8.7% 5.7% DTOPS: 65.0% 97.0% 92.0% 71.0% 32.0% 100.0% 97.0% 15.0% SDCON: 48.0% 67.2% 64.4% 53.1% 23.6% 58.2% 52.8% 10.3% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Boom 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 If Milton hits Cat 4+, the damage will already be done in regard to surge, even with any weakening upon landfall. This needs to be the primary focal point for public messaging. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 We are only getting two passes from this recon plane. The next plane should be in there this evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Mean track on the EPS very similar to the Op, perhaps slightly north, centered over TB Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Making a bad situation much worse, officials in Tampa Bay Area are now conceding that cleanup of Helene debris by the time this storm approaches the area is an impossible task. With Milton bearing down, about 5% of the debris from Hurricane Helene had been cleared from Clearwater Beach, Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector said at a news conference Sunday. “My phone has been ringing off the hook the last two days with residents concerned about the debris,” Rector said. The mayor said he was coordinating with officials from the local level to the White House. But clearing off the entire island before a midweek landfall will likely be impossible, Rector said. “We’re in a desperate situation to move as much as we can as quickly as we can,” he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation for long-term, healthcare facilities, and assisted living facilities in Zone A. https://thegabber.com/zone-a-evacuation-begins-milton-update-5/ The Assisted Living facility where my Dad lives in Zone B is evacuating tomorrow "to be safe." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 6 minutes ago, Prospero said: Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation for long-term, healthcare facilities, and assisted living facilities in Zone A. https://thegabber.com/zone-a-evacuation-begins-milton-update-5/ The Assisted Living facility where my Dad lives in Zone B is evacuating tomorrow "to be safe." looks like A,B and C are all being evacuated before the storm’s arrival 1:45 p.m. Pinellas orders evacuations for health care facilities Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation order for long-term care health facilities, assisted living facilities and hospitals in evacuation zones, A, B and C. The evacuation includes six hospitals, 25 nursing homes and 44 assisted living facilities totaling approximately 6,600 patients. https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024/10/06/tropical-storm-milton-live-updates-tampa-bay-hillsborough-pinellas-pasco/ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 12Z JMA: N of earlier runs at ~Ft Myers to Pt Charlotte (waiting on 6 hour maps) vs between Naples and Ft. Myers on yesterday’s 12Z Now I can see the 6 hour maps. Today’s 12Z JMA is actually close to a Tampa ENE to N of Cape Canaveral path vs being near a Ft. Myers E to Jupiter path yesterday. That’s ~100/150 miles N of yesterday’s run on W/E coast. Also, just about all prior runs were landfalling on SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Per model consensus, there’s a chance for a short-lived TC to form just E of FL from an area of convection and possible developing LLC currently in the E GOM ahead of Milton that would then move well OTS. (see IR image below). Is anyone else watching this? I’m watching this closely because it could have a non-trivial influence on Milton in some way(s). For example, the 12Z UKMET has a TC from this: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.6N 78.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.10.2024 48 27.6N 78.8W 1003 23 0000UTC 09.10.2024 60 28.6N 75.5W 1002 28 1200UTC 09.10.2024 72 30.0N 71.9W 1003 30 0000UTC 10.10.2024 84 32.3N 66.5W 1004 30 1200UTC 10.10.2024 96 35.3N 60.5W 1003 33 0000UTC 11.10.2024 108 38.9N 54.6W 999 37 1200UTC 11.10.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 milton now expected to reach cat 4 status.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 The ICON almost hits the Yucatan. Well south of it's 12z run through 36hrs. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 NHC looks to have this going right up Tampa Bay Wed evening. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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