Major Hurricane Milton

[purduewx80]

The synoptic situation as it shifts across the Loop Current and towards the coast is textbook. It’s essentially a partial capture, with extreme divergence aloft and ventilation from the 160KT+ jet developing off the Eastern Seaboard. Eyewall dynamics and dry air intrusion will probably have the main impacts on landfall intensity, but that jet configuration will play a big role in expanding the footprint of impacts. 

[GaWx]

 Meanwhile, 12z CMC shifted slightly S to between Ft Myers and Naples vs its 0Z’s Ft Myers and yesterday’s 12Z’s Port Charlotte.

[Kevin Reilly]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Meanwhile, 12z CMC shifted slightly S to between Ft Myers and Naples vs its 0Z’s Ft Myers and yesterday’s 12Z’s Port Charlotte.

 Weaker too.... kind of been the case stronger storm goes further north weaker storm a bit further south that's what to keep an eye on.  Storm surge purposes you do not want to be on the south and southeast side along the west coast of Florida.

[Amped]

The CMC has been so bad with storm tracks the last few years, I've stopped looking at it entirely. 

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

The CMC has been so bad with storm tracks the last few years, I've stopped looking at it entirely. 

The cmc in general is not a good model. It was 48 hours slower than the other major models yesterday. Though this has slowed, it’s not by that much.

[WxWatcher007]

Latest recon is en route and should be in the storm soon. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think Helene was downplayed by a lot of people which was crazy given how massive it was. That's the biggest factor when it comes to damage, size. 

Right now Milton is a small storm, we'll see if that changes later but a weakening hurricane of average to below average size in an area familiar with hurricanes will fare just fine. 

The impacts also change drastically if you go from TB to Ft. Myers. 

Good bet Milton remains somewhat smaller than Helene, however, guidance does indicate at least one EWRC so this isn't going to be Charley, either.

[CheeselandSkies]

28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

I used to chat on AIM with Alex in the mid-2000s when we were college-aged Wisconsin weather nerds. He knows what he's talking about.

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

The CMC has been so bad with storm tracks the last few years, I've stopped looking at it entirely. 

It's terrible for hurricanes. Globals themselves don't leverage intensity well. The GFS is doing the best job intensity wise of the globals. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good bet Milton remains somewhat smaller than Helene, however, guidance does indicate at least one EWRC so this isn't going to be Charley, either.

Agreed it should be an average sized storm. That's why impact location does matter this time. 

It's a world of difference in terms of damage/impacts if the GFS is correct vs other globals. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, Amped said:

The CMC has been so bad with storm tracks the last few years, I've stopped looking at it entirely. 

 1. Yeah, CMC hasn’t been good. It along with the GFS was the worst for Ian with panhandle tracks only a couple of days before landfall! I feel that the CMC is the worst of the 5 most followed globals (even the JMA MAY be better overall) but still worthy of mention mainly for trend if for nothing else.

 2. Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is out: I use mainly for track not intensity though it continues to trend stronger as it catches up like usual. It initialized its position well and landfalls further N than the 0Z’s Naples with it near or possibly slightly N of Ft. Myers per my estimate based on the text (see below). I’ll have to see the 6 hour maps later when they’re released to better pinpoint its landfall point but it’s clearly further N though still S of the ICON/GFS:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.10.2024

        TROPICAL STORM MILTON     ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  95.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.10.2024    0  22.5N  95.0W     1003            30
    0000UTC 07.10.2024   12  22.0N  93.2W     1000            32
    1200UTC 07.10.2024   24  21.6N  91.6W      997            37
    0000UTC 08.10.2024   36  22.1N  89.3W      993            40
    1200UTC 08.10.2024   48  23.0N  87.2W      989            41
    0000UTC 09.10.2024   60  24.2N  85.1W      987            42
    1200UTC 09.10.2024   72  26.2N  82.7W      987            48
    0000UTC 10.10.2024   84  28.2N  80.1W      990            49
    1200UTC 10.10.2024   96  29.4N  76.9W      987            71
    0000UTC 11.10.2024  108  30.9N  70.9W      992            53
    1200UTC 11.10.2024  120  30.6N  65.4W     1000            54
    0000UTC 12.10.2024  132  30.6N  59.8W     1007            36
    1200UTC 12.10.2024  144              CEASED TRACKING

 

[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The synoptic situation as it shifts across the Loop Current and towards the coast is textbook. It’s essentially a partial capture, with extreme divergence aloft and ventilation from the 160KT+ jet developing off the Eastern Seaboard. Eyewall dynamics and dry air intrusion will probably have the main impacts on landfall intensity, but that jet configuration will play a big role in expanding the footprint of impacts. 

Yea and in turn much stronger impacts with wind and surge on the southeast side, much less on the northwest side. 
 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good bet Milton remains somewhat smaller than Helene, however, guidance does indicate at least one EWRC so this isn't going to be Charley, either.

Yes, agree smaller circulations can intensify very quickly they also tend to unwind fairly quickly too.  It is the latter that I am worried about with a smaller circulation taking off!!!

[LeesburgWx]

He is starting to get the "look"

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?

[TPAwx]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?

 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon looks like its first pass will be from SE to NW. I kind of expect this to be near hurricane intensity given the satellite and earlier recon trends we saw but we’ll see.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GEFS tells me these things:

- Mean further N than last few runs with it near Tampa

- Only 4 of its 30 members (13%) are as far N as the operational

- GEFS means continue for whatever reason to be S of the operational run. Anyone know why?

My hunch, we’ve seen stronger solutions further north.

ensembles are lower res and don’t deepen the storm as much, hence their further south progs.

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

I do not like that GFS run at all for Tampa and of course it will start making people nervous who were hit by Helene.

People who were hit by Helene need to prepare as if they are going to suffer another hit. 

While odds are lower at this time for that, the risk is too high given the current state of infrastructure for those recently affected by Helene. 

Everyone from Western and Northern Florida up through the areas affected by Helene need to begin making plans today for what and how they are going to react should their area become one that will be significantly affected. This includes those in areas where the moisture fetch from Milton may affect them.

The rain event which affected the Western Carolinas before Helene even came close set the stage for the disaster in the Western Carolinas and Milton may not be all that different. The NHC has already stated the storm may significantly grow in size as it approaches landfall. Others like @purduewx80 have shown how this has a potential to track NW of current landfall projections. 

This is a potentially catastrophic situation. Again. It must be treated as such unless and/or until it can be definitively ruled out. 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z hurricane model suite is bombs away yet again. HWRF initializes with the current NHC pressure and has a borderline major hurricane within 12-18 hours. Both HAFS peak well into sub-920/Cat 5 territory, with HAFS-B once again flirting with the 900mb mark.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon just passed an area of FL winds between 65-75kts. Hasn’t reached the center yet but should have data in the next ten minutes.

[cptcatz]

75 knot flight level wind. Should be a hurricane now. 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

 

Thanks. It is weird that Pivotal and WxBell for whatever reason tend to have much higher SLPs for GEFS and perhaps other ensemble members in general vs TT. I wonder why. I wouldn’t think that TT, itself, can run them at higher resolution. TT has most 12Z GEFS members in the 950s-970s vsPivotal’s/WxBell’s 980s to 990s. I guess the programming algos are different.

[beanskip]

Hurricane models really showing this pre-landfall weakening -- 12z HAFS-B show about 60 mb of weakening in the last 20 hours before landfall. 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Hurricane models really showing this pre-landfall weakening -- 12z HAFS-B show about 60 mb of weakening in the last 20 hours before landfall. 

But it goes down to 901 before that 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: back N to Tampa from Sarasota 6Z/0Z and with it stronger than those runs. Landfall is near 8PM Wed.

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Hurricane models really showing this pre-landfall weakening -- 12z HAFS-B show about 60 mb of weakening in the last 20 hours before landfall. 

Which is just unrealistic in my mind, either the strongest point is too strong or the weakening is probably overdone

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Which is just unrealistic in my mind, either the strongest point is too strong or the weakening is probably overdone

Strongest is highly likely too strong imo based on the clear tendency of these insanely strong hurricane model runs to often be 30-40 mb too strong. Of course even if 40 too strong, it would still be a very dangerous 930-940 cat 4+. Example: many runs for Helene were 900-910 and it verified a still very strong but more reasonable ~938.

[WxWatcher007]

989mb with a closed eye and peak FL winds of 75kts on the VDM. I think that’s enough for an upgrade assuming the NE side is stronger but we’ll see.

[beanskip]

Verbatim 12z Euro literally takes the eye right up the mouth of Tampa Bay into Hillsborough Bay and the Tampa docks. Will never happen (gulp) but quite a breathtaking track.