Major Hurricane Milton

[bobbutts]

15 hours ago, LeesburgWx said:

I was thinking of Hurricane Charley and how that hurricane veered NE before reaching Tampa. Everyone was very worried for Tampa Bay but I have to imagine, the trajectory for Milton vs Charley is much worse, if Milton comes ashore at or just north of Tampa Bay.

Charley was running at almost a parallel angle to the FL coast and was a tiny storm with a small patch of major wind damage well inland and relatively limited storm surge.  We'll have to watch the details on this but it appears to have greater potential for surge based at this point based on likely storm strength/size and approach angle/speed.

[WxWatcher007]

For our FL crew. 

[Hotair]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For our FL crew. 

This was absolutely necessary.  A shame it didn’t get started yesterday.

[Seminole]

6 minutes ago, Hotair said:

This was absolutely necessary.  A shame it didn’t get started yesterday.

Agreed it was necessary. In all fairness the potential severity of this storm came to light yesterday so a 24 hour response is reasonable IMHO.  

[Hotair]

According to this, Milton’s trajectory is so unusual that one has to go all the way back to 1888 to find a similar storm track 

[cptcatz]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease. 

This is ridiculous to say. First of all, Milton seems to have a higher ceiling with multiple models showing possible cat 5. Even if it weakens before landfall the surge will still be there (see Katrina). Second, Helene's surge was over swamp land of the big bend while Miltons will be over developed beachfront properties. Third, even if it hits south of Tampa and spares Tampa Bay, that likely means Fort Myers gets the worst of it which is just now starting to bounce back from Ian. So basically it's a tossup between surge destruction in Tampa Bay or in Fort Myers, either of them will be bad. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

This is ridiculous to say. First of all, Milton seems to have a higher ceiling with multiple models showing possible cat 5. Even if it weakens before landfall the surge will still be there (see Katrina). Second, Helene's surge was over swamp land of the big bend while Miltons will be over developed beachfront properties. Third, even if it hits south of Tampa and spares Tampa Bay, that likely means Fort Myers gets the worst of it which is just now starting to bounce back from Ian. So basically it's a tossup between surge destruction in Tampa Bay or in Fort Myers, either of them will be bad. 

I think Helene was downplayed by a lot of people which was crazy given how massive it was. That's the biggest factor when it comes to damage, size. 

Right now Milton is a small storm, we'll see if that changes later but a weakening hurricane of average to below average size in an area familiar with hurricanes will fare just fine. 

The impacts also change drastically if you go from TB to Ft. Myers. 

[Hotair]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease. 

I can’t disagree more with this. But I want to explain why in a respectful way that doesn’t fall into the banter arena as we are in storm mode.  Hence, allow me to borrow from Jack Beven’s expert analysis: 

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a 
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very 
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable 
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and 
dry air entrainment after that time.  Third, the proximity of a 
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests 
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at 
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance 
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak 
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to 
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts 
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while 
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly.  The new 
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows 
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is 
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the 
storm gets stronger.  Milton is expected to weaken and start 
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition 
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.

[smokeybandit]

19 minutes ago, Hotair said:

According to this, Milton’s trajectory is so unusual that one has to go all the way back to 1888 to find a similar storm track 

What do they use to establish such a detailed track for storms that old?

[bobbutts]

19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

This is ridiculous to say. First of all, Milton seems to have a higher ceiling with multiple models showing possible cat 5. Even if it weakens before landfall the surge will still be there (see Katrina). Second, Helene's surge was over swamp land of the big bend while Miltons will be over developed beachfront properties. Third, even if it hits south of Tampa and spares Tampa Bay, that likely means Fort Myers gets the worst of it which is just now starting to bounce back from Ian. So basically it's a tossup between surge destruction in Tampa Bay or in Fort Myers, either of them will be bad. 

To add to your point.  Looking at a satellite map should help people who aren't familiar with the area.  From the Tampa Bay area and south there is nearly continuous development in potential surge areas right up to the gulf and extensive bays and canals and low lying areas.  To the north there's very little development right on the coast. 

[cptcatz]

3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

What do they use to establish such a detailed track for storms that old?

Pretty sure every recorded storm has this graphic available on Wikipedia

[bugalou]

9 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

What do they use to establish such a detailed track for storms that old?

Barometric pressure readings from various stations and ships to make a rough isobar grid over time combined with wind readings.  That and first hand accounts.

[Hotair]

10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

What do they use to establish such a detailed track for storms that old?

The telegraph and anenometers used by ships and weather stations communicated the paths of the storms. These have been preserved and captured visually.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease. 

This has to be you’re worst all time post. I’m not wishing for another major disaster, but this is a lock for another 50 billion plus storm. 
Why,

Population. 
 

[eyewall]

If this ends up south of Tampa it will be a blowout tide in the bay. Over and just north would be a record surge most likely.

[Seminole]

4K guardsman have been activated for debris removal per Governor DeSantis press conference.  It will now be a 24/7 effort until conditions are not safe to do so. 

 

[jlewis1111]

I dont post much but will say this. GFS nailed Helene with size and location many days out. Also many models showed in the 3-4 day range out wind sheer and Helene weakening upon arrival at the coast. Did that happen? Nope.. Im all in on the GFS until it proves me wrong. Its been dead on lately Also the euro sucked with Helene. 

[WxWatcher007]

The final VDM of the recon mission reports a circular eye that’s open in the SW. Diameter of 20nm. 

[BoulderWX]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease. 

Hands down the worst post I’ve seen this year and that says a lot. This post can only be viewed as ignorant trolling or attention seeking. Either way, it’s just nonsense. This is another 25B+ in damage storm incoming. 

[Maxwell03]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease. 

It's a tricky forecast especially considering Milton's size and the open door for weakening near landfall. I understand where you're coming from here and think you're taking a little too much heat for it. If everything aligns perfectly, it will be an extremely impactful event. Still, someone on the Florida west coast is taking a nasty hit from this and they are not prepared to weather a storm so soon after Helene. 

[weatherCCB]

11 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Hands down the worst post I’ve seen this year and that says a lot. This post can only be viewed as ignorant trolling or attention seeking. Either way, it’s just nonsense. This is another 25B+ in damage storm incoming. 

My sediments exactly.  Post like this should not be allowed. 
It just conjecture and not based on any data.   This looks to be extremely impactful storm based on latest guidance.

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

It's a tricky forecast especially considering Milton's size and the open door for weakening near landfall. I understand where you're coming from here and think you're taking a little too much heat for it. If everything aligns perfectly, it will be an extremely impactful event. Still, someone on the Florida west coast is taking a nasty hit from this and they are not prepared to weather a storm so soon after Helene. 

As far as wind damage the ideal location for this to come in probably is around Venice or N of Crystal River.  Once inland of those 2 locations you have to go for miles for any significant pop centers.  As far as surge, you'd be bringing bad surge into Tampa on the N track and into Charlotte Harbor on the S track

[TPAwx]

[lilj4425]

15 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

My sediments exactly.  Post like this should not be allowed. 
It just conjecture and not based on any data.   This looks to be extremely impactful storm based on latest guidance.

You think that’s bad? Just wait for the conspiracy theories to come out regarding this one so like you are seeing with Helene. 

[Hailstoned]

29 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

My sediments exactly.  Post like this should not be allowed. 
It just conjecture and not based on any data.   This looks to be extremely impactful storm based on latest guidance.

Sedimentation is piling up here.

[USCG RS]

You'd be surprised how many people use forums like these for information. That includes people who have very limited internet right now. 

As such, I say let's keep the non weather related opinions, theories, etc in banter. 

We all need to think about the fact that these forums do actually have a very real world impact, especially for those already crippled from Helene and looking for information on Milton. 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

Hands down the worst post I’ve seen this year and that says a lot. This post can only be viewed as ignorant trolling or attention seeking. Either way, it’s just nonsense. This is another 25B+ in damage storm incoming. 

I'm not trolling at all. It's a fact that smaller, weakening storms are far less impactful than much larger, strengthening ones near landfall. 

It'll be impactful for some for sure but a lot of people like to catastrophize too especially on social media. 

[eyewall]

44 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

You think that’s bad? Just wait for the conspiracy theories to come out regarding this one so like you are seeing with Helene. 

yes because hurricanes never happen in Florida

[USCG RS]

11AM ET NHC Discussion excerpt:

 

"The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials."

[gallopinggertie]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not trolling at all. It's a fact that smaller, weakening storms are far less impactful than much larger, strengthening ones near landfall. 

It'll be impactful for some for sure but a lot of people like to catastrophize too especially on social media. 

You said “Florida will handle this with ease” though…it’s wild to make that statement confidently at this point.