Major Hurricane Milton

[Nibor]

Something to note these 00z hurricane model runs were closer to the Yucatan. 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: Sarasota, which is ~40 miles S of 12Z’s just N of Tampa;

So, of most watched globals, all but GFS are S of Tampa.

 

0Z Summary from N to S:

GFS: just N of Tampa

Euro: Sarasota

Icon: Port Charlotte

CMC: Ft. Myers

UKMET: Naples

[TPAwx]

So near consensus on the majors (N/S of TB)
 

How do the hurricane models score wrt track? 

[TriPol]

21 minutes ago, Amped said:

167.5kt seems legit .  200mph=174kt

Just asking as I've never seen these two models before... how accurate are they?

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Just asking as I've never seen these two models before... how accurate are they?

I wouldn't take them verbatim, but rather interpret the output as sensing a very favorable environment over the central GOM...in an absolute sense, just as the globals are often not intense enough due to resolution issues, the hurricane models are often exagerrated presumably because the intense convective processes are overemphasized.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro: Sarasota, which is ~40 miles S of 12Z’s just N of Tampa;

So, of most watched globals, all but GFS are S of Tampa.

 

0Z Summary from N to S:

GFS: just N of Tampa

Euro: Sarasota

Icon: Port Charlotte

CMC: Ft. Myers

UKMET: Naples

I had my probability map extend much further to the south of TB than north. 

[Amped]

Hurricane models are showing a lot of weakening in the final 15 hrs before landfall. The core gets blasted with dry air on most of them.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Apparently all my "Hurricane Milton" Office Space memes were tempting fate.

Where’s my stapler….

I feel so bad talking shit about this storm. This is really going to be a generational disaster. I have a very close friend in TPA visiting her daughter and first grand child and I keep trying to stress to her how serious this is. She keeps saying they didn’t flood during Helene and the house is new and well constructed. All of which are good but all bets are off if this plays out the way I think it’s going to. I lived 4 blocks from the beach during Irene in 2011 in a ground floor apartment, we had 6” of water and I moved after. Sandy a year later and that same apartment had close to 6 feet. I keep telling all my friends to evacuate and get their cars out of Long Beach and everyone said “Irene was a bust and this will be the same” well every single person lost their car and or their home. (Luckily all survived)

I just can’t stress enough how serious this is for TPA. Better safe than sorry. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hurricane models are showing a lot of weakening in the final 15 hrs before landfall. The core gets blasted with dry air on most of them.

Wind wise, that would be great. But surge wise Katrina wrote the book in regards to building a surge, that propagates like a tsunami even after winds diminish. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hurricane models are showing a lot of weakening in the final 15 hrs before landfall. The core gets blasted with dry air on most of them.

Yes. This shouldn't be a repeat of Helene in that regard...though it won't matter for surge, as others have pointed out.

[Windspeed]

Yes. This shouldn't be a repeat of Helene in that regard...though it won't matter for surge, as others have pointed out.

If the TC models even come within 75% of these crazy intensity outputs, the positive thing here is that it should scare the crap out of immediate coastal residents to get out and evacuate. Even if the storm weakens and the wind event is mitigated, the surge will have already been fetched and pushed onto the shallow shelf. As such, hopefully, there won't be anyone south of landfall point to experience it. This opposed to a rapidly intensifying storm near to landfall that surprises and catches people off guard. I'll take the bust on winds at the surface any day over the alternative of mass casualties due to drowning.

[BoulderWX]

06Z gfs looks around 958 just North of Tampa 

06z icon is roughly 991 south of Tampa 

06z NAM about 30 miles west of Tampa still at 84 @ 982mb

[cptcatz]

Wow recon is showing it much stronger than we thought! Those hurricane models could be on to something...

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Wow recon is showing it much stronger than we thought! Those hurricane models could be on to something...

 

[cptcatz]

So recon just marked it at 993 mb. NHC had it at 1003 mb. This is going to get interesting. 

And this probably belongs in the other thread but GFS now has multiple runs showing another major hurricane hitting florida the following week...

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

So recon just marked it at 993 mb. NHC had it at 1003 mb. This is going to get interesting. 

And this probably belongs in the other thread but GFS now has multiple runs showing another major hurricane hitting florida the following week...

Recon actually found 986. But your point remains 

[Modfan2]

Question; with Helene the models were fairly west and corrected east; any bias here with Milton where it ends up moving further south as we get in the short range modeling?  

[jbenedet]

For Helene, the hurricane model verification performance for intensity was generally much better vs the globals; especially early on, whereas the globals performed much better on track. 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Question; with Helene the models were fairly west and corrected east; any bias here with Milton where it ends up moving further south as we get in the short range modeling?  

Models were about as spot on with Helene as they can be. There was a slight east correction into landfall so this is true but that was a totally different setup with an interaction with an ULL. Any trends from Helene’s modeling can be discarded as this is a different setup. 
 

For the Tampa metro, track will be extraordinarily crucial. This will be another lopsided storm and if it goes just a hair south of the metro, impacts will be minimal vs catastrophic 

I hope everyone prepares for the catastrophic worst case even if the metro gets lucky. For now, they are solidly in the bullseye

 

[dan11295]

One piece of good news is the models almost universally have Milton weakening from 72 hours until landfall due to shear/dry air getting entrained into the circulation. Hopefully that process occurs soon enough and drops the intensity enough before hand to mitigate surge.

[TPAwx]

7:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6
Location: 22.6°N 94.9°W
Moving: E at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[hawkeye_wx]

The 06z Euro took a big jump south, shows Milton's center almost scraping the coast of the Yucatan.

 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 06z Euro took a big jump south, shows Milton's center almost scraping the coast of the Yucatan.

 

It's already at 991mb and this is showing 48 hours out...

[purduewx80]

Looks to be some model support for localized rainfall of 10-20” with the PRE/lead wave affecting South FL later today into tomorrow, unfortunately centered on the urban corridor near and north of Miami. Low-level flow will be enhanced into the coast there tonight and tomorrow, likely resulting in stationary thunderstorm clusters. Sometimes the diabatic heating and coastal convergence can enhance the winds there as a mesolow develops, too. WPC has a moderate risk out for excessive rain, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high risk as confidence increases.

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Models were about as spot on with Helene as they can be. There was a slight east correction into landfall so this is true but that was a totally different setup with an interaction with an ULL. Any trends from Helene’s modeling can be discarded as this is a different setup. 
 

For the Tampa metro, track will be extraordinarily crucial. This will be another lopsided storm and if it goes just a hair south of the metro, impacts will be minimal vs catastrophic 

I hope everyone prepares for the catastrophic worst case even if the metro gets lucky. For now, they are solidly in the bullseye

 

I think it’s still likely landfall ends up down near Sarasota or a tad south of that.  We should see models move that way next 24 hours.  Part of that reasoning is they are showing a harder SE movement next day or so 

[Hotair]

For us here in the TB area the only positive aspect to this storm presently is how small it is.  Much smaller than Helene was.  Therefore, the major wind impacts are likely to be felt over a much narrower swath of real estate.   Any minor wobble to the South of the Metro area could spare this highly populated region from catastrophic winds and surge.   It’s the stubborn models that for now curve it northward that worry me most.  

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

For us here in the TB area the only positive aspect to this storm presently is how small it is.  Much smaller than Helene was.  Therefore, the major wind impacts are likely to be felt over a much narrower swath of real estate.   Any minor wobble to the South of the Metro area could spare this highly populated region from catastrophic winds and surge.   It’s the stubborn models that for now curve it northward that worry me most.  

The north side of Helene didn’t have too extensive an area of big winds.  It was mostly on the SE side.  This storm it shouldn’t be as bad since it’s not going to be moving as fast.  Places like Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale might be the biggest beneficiaries if this comes in over Sarasota or just south.  With Helene they’d have seen 80 mph gusts.  They should be 45-55 based on 925 winds on the globals with this which shouldn’t be a problem outside shutting down all 3 airports as that’s a 70-80 degree crosswind from 200-210

[purduewx80]

7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

For us here in the TB area the only positive aspect to this storm presently is how small it is.  Much smaller than Helene was.  Therefore, the major wind impacts are likely to be felt over a much narrower swath of real estate.   Any minor wobble to the South of the Metro area could spare this highly populated region from catastrophic winds and surge.   It’s the stubborn models that for now curve it northward that worry me most.  

If Milton bucks the trend of landfalling intensification this year, as is just about unanimous on model guidance, winds will not reach their full potential on the southeast/east side of the storm. Milton also looks to go through at least one ERC based on the hurricane regional models, maybe two, which would both lead to a much larger radius of winds than we’ll see today and tomorrow. It shouldn’t become as large as Helene, but its intensity over the Gulf and larger size with time will both enhance the surge potential.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[SnoSki14]

I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller

Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease.