Hotair Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yep, I saw this today. Where are you in this? South Tampa near Davis? TI, Madeira and SPB, Ana Maria, etc. are even worse. South Tampa. Also friends in St Pete Beach across from the Tradewinds Same thing hundreds of streets with houses that have puked their guts unto the driveway. Raining hard now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CampergirlFL Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Hi. I’m east of Tampa, off I-4 close to Plant City. I was in Gatlinburg when Helene was coming and drove back for it. Definitely worried about this one and preparing. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 South Tampa. Also friends in St Pete Beach across from the Tradewinds Same thing hundreds of streets with houses that have puked their guts unto the driveway. Raining hard now I’m just west of Wesley Chapel right off 75. Board that ish up in South Tampa, we aren’t in storm mode yet so forgive me for Banter but good time to gtfo and go hang out in Orlando for a few days. I got a feeling you don’t want to be anywhere near south Tampa or the Bay this week. No good feelings for this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane. HAFS duo has put the HWRF to shame as the "nuclear hurricane" model(s) of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: HAFS duo has put the HWRF to shame as the "nuclear hurricane" model(s) of choice. Kind of like the 384 hour 18z GFS showing a 60 inch blizzard for the I95 area. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 49 minutes ago, TriPol said: Kind of like the 384 hour 18z GFS showing a 60 inch blizzard for the I95 area. Bring it on. I could use a snow day or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Really hope I am wrong about this one, but my initial hunch offers up a grave scenario for Tampa-St. Pete. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/intensifying-tropical-storm-milton.html 7 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 BULLETINTropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1420241000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY......RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THEFLORIDA WEST COAST...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...22.9N 95.1WABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICOABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Now progging 120 peak! Also, a little slower: Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 30 n mi from the center. The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days. The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late Sunday for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 0Z Icon: 3rd run in a row (back to 12Z) Port Charlotte, which is nearly 100 miles S of NHC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 While most of the hurricane models were bold with their intensity at 18Z one notable exception is COAMPS which peaks at only 65 kts. Because publicly accessible data is so hard to find that isn't delayed I can only speculate on the cause. I noticed its track takes a deeper dive toward the Yucatan not unlike the ECMWF and ICON. Notice that the ECMWF and ICON are more bullish with the development of the minor tropical disturbance on the eastern side of the GOM even establishing and maintaining a closed surface low as it tracks over FL ahead of Milton's approach. This causes a slight Fujiwhara bend in Milton's track. It's possible COAMPS sides more with the ECMWF/ICON in this regard and as result may be mitigating intensification somewhat. Anyway, the point is that not all hurricane models in the IVCN suite are bullish on Milton's intensity. Edit: Slight wording change for clarity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 4 minutes ago, bdgwx said: While most of the hurricane models were bold with their intensity at 18Z one notable exception is COAMPS which peaks at only 65 kts. Because publicly accessible data is so hard to find that isn't delayed I can only speculate on the cause. I noticed its track takes a deeper dive toward the Yucatan not unlike the ECMWF and ICON. Notice that the ECMWF and ICON are more bullish with the tropical disturbance on eastern side of the GOM in regards to its maintenance of a closed low. This causes a slight Fujiwhara bend in Milton's track. It's possible COAMPS sides more with the ECMWF/ICON in this regard and as result may be mitigating intensification somewhat. Anyway, the point is that not all hurricane models in the IVCN suite are bullish on Milton's intensity. The models are never in total agreement on just about anything. People living in vulnerable areas should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 28 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Icon: 3rd run in a row (back to 12Z) Port Charlotte, which is nearly 100 miles S of NHC. icon and ecmwf were to high with helene intensity compared to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 4 minutes ago, nycwinter said: icon and ecmwf were to high with helene intensity compared to the gfs Too high as in too high with central pressure? The GFS and Euro were about in lock step inside 48h with a landfall pressure in the 950s. But globals are almost always higher for strong hurricanes than reality. Aside from that, I think what’s telling here is that the GFS went from very weak to in line with the more aggressive Euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Local WFLA met very direct tonight. Clear layout of the threats and 10-15 foot surge potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 Want to keep highlighting the rainfall threat further inland. Someone away from the center track is likely to have significant issues with freshwater flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 0Z UKMET (use for track only): sticking with its far S track (keeps reminding me of its furthest S progs for Ian) with landfall still near or a little N of Naples; it did initialize at 0Z ~20 miles S of actual position fwiw: TROPICAL STORM MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 95.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.10.2024 0 22.5N 95.6W 1007 25 1200UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.8N 94.0W 1005 26 0000UTC 07.10.2024 24 22.2N 92.9W 1003 29 1200UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.2N 91.1W 1001 32 0000UTC 08.10.2024 48 22.5N 89.1W 998 30 1200UTC 08.10.2024 60 23.7N 86.7W 994 33 0000UTC 09.10.2024 72 24.7N 84.8W 993 38 1200UTC 09.10.2024 84 25.7N 82.3W 996 38 0000UTC 10.10.2024 96 28.8N 78.5W 994 48 1200UTC 10.10.2024 108 31.1N 73.9W 997 54 0000UTC 11.10.2024 120 33.5N 65.4W 996 48 1200UTC 11.10.2024 132 39.5N 54.4W 987 45 0000UTC 12.10.2024 144 47.6N 45.6W 972 46 1200UTC 12.10.2024 156 POST-TROPICAL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 0Z CMC: still slower than others but sped up some to Thu night instead of Fri; back S some to Ft Myers from Port Charlotte at 12Z So, at 0Z, 3 of 5 (UK/Icon/CMC) most followed globals are significantly S of NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Fascinating watching this really get its act together. Helene was this big beast whose birth was this problematic asymmetrical chaos that was only exacerbated by dry air leading to all sorts of growing pains. Complicated adolescence and then unfortunately a real late bloomer. This thing is just in perfect conditions, small, and oddly consistent in convection close to the center, before it completely had one. In terms of structure it's always been precocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: Fascinating watching this really get its act together. Helene was this big beast whose birth was this problematic asymmetrical chaos that was only exacerbated by dry air leading to all sorts of growing pains. Complicated adolescence and then unfortunately a real late bloomer. This thing is just in perfect conditions, small, and oddly consistent in convection close to the center, before it completely had one. In terms of structure it's always been precocious. How's it getting it's act together? It looks like poo on IR currently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Definitely looks ahead of schedule 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 5 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said: How's it getting it's act together? It looks like poo on IR currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 6 Author Share Posted October 6 That kind of structure tends to foreshadow more significant to rapid intensification, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. You do still need deep convection over the center and wrapping around to build a true inner core. It’s not a linear process, and as we see time and again the organizational phase often happens in fits and starts. Recon tomorrow will give us a much better sense of how organized it is and critically, more detail on the environment around the system. Night, everyone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 IMO, people on the central Florida Gulf coast (and even inland a ways from there) should be seriously considering evacuating or at least have a plan to evacuate once Milton's track is nailed down better in the next day or two, given that the center of the forecast track brings a 115-120 mph hurricane directly over Tampa on Wednesday late afternoon/early evening (although the track cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island, so a Tampa landfall is not a given, but preparing for a pretty credible worst case is not a bad thing to do). If we have a major hurricane hitting Tampa, the impacts are likely to be substantial to catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of people. For people unaware of Tampa's history with hurricanes, Tampa hasn’t seen a direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921 (and only one other time in recorded history in 1848), when the population was tiny, but for those storms the damage was catastrophic from both the winds and the storm surge. Even Helene, which missed Tampa by ~100 miles (at its closest) still caused the worst storm surge (~7 ft) since the 1921 hurricane, which had ~10’ of surge and the 1841 storm, which was likely a tad weaker than Helene, had an estimated 15’ of surge; and even a glancing blow from Helene killed 11 people in Tampa. 10-15 feet or more of surge and Cat 3 winds are almost unimaginable for modern day Tampa Metro, which now has 3.2MM people vs. ~100K in 1921 and a few thousand in 1848. Tampa's hurricane history is detailed in the link below. And if the forecast storm track and intensity verify, Milton would pass near or over Orlando, too, as a Cat 1/2 hurricane. Talk about a horrific track for Florida. https://www.miamiherald.com/.../hur.../article293362924.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Obligatory sub 900 HFAS-B run. 887 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 7 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Obligatory sub 900 HFAS-B run. 887 lol I don't remember the last time a hurricane model had an Atlantic storm modeled that low. This is some 3k nam stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 167.5kt seems legit . 200mph=174kt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 The A version bottomed at 910, HMON prob a few mb close. Seems like a signal. to GTFO of dodge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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