Major Hurricane Milton

[Hotair]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Yep, I saw this today. Where are you in this? South Tampa near Davis? TI, Madeira and SPB, Ana Maria, etc. are even worse. 

South Tampa.  Also friends in St Pete Beach across from the Tradewinds   Same thing hundreds of streets with houses that have puked their guts unto the driveway.  Raining hard now 

[CampergirlFL]

Hi. I’m east of Tampa, off I-4 close to Plant City. I was in Gatlinburg when Helene was coming and drove back for it. Definitely worried about this one and preparing.


.

[dbullsfan]

South Tampa.  Also friends in St Pete Beach across from the Tradewinds   Same thing hundreds of streets with houses that have puked their guts unto the driveway.  Raining hard now 

I’m just west of Wesley Chapel right off 75. Board that ish up in South Tampa, we aren’t in storm mode yet so forgive me for Banter but good time to gtfo and go hang out in Orlando for a few days. I got a feeling you don’t want to be anywhere near south Tampa or the Bay this week. No good feelings for this one


.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane.

HAFS duo has put the HWRF to shame as the "nuclear hurricane" model(s) of choice.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

HAFS duo has put the HWRF to shame as the "nuclear hurricane" model(s) of choice.

Kind of like the 384 hour 18z GFS showing a 60 inch blizzard for the I95 area.

[monadnocks]

49 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Kind of like the 384 hour 18z GFS showing a 60 inch blizzard for the I95 area.

Bring it on. I could use a snow day or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Really hope I am wrong about this one, but my initial hunch offers up a grave scenario for Tampa-St. Pete.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/intensifying-tropical-storm-milton.html

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[GaWx]

Now progging 120 peak! Also, a little slower:

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
 
Milton appears to be slowly organizing.  The storm has a central
dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to
the south of the center.  The latest satellite intensity estimates
range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt.  Milton is a small storm at the
moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only
about 30 n mi from the center.
 
The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains
embedded in weak steering currents.  However, a shortwave trough is
expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico.  This
trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on
Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast
across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days.
The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in
both direction and timing.  Overall, the models have trended slower
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that
direction.  This prediction is near the middle of the guidance
envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids.
It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is
around 150 miles.  Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the
exact track.
 
Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as
it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a
moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear
environment.  The big question is how quickly and by how much will
the storm intensify.  There is a big spread in the intensity
models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the
global and statistical-dynamical models.  The new intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids.  It is hoped that the models
will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations.
 
Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.
 
Key Messages:
1.  Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.  Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late Sunday for portions of Florida.
 
2.  There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.
 
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 22.9N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.0N  94.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.0N  93.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 23.1N  92.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 23.3N  90.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 23.9N  88.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 25.3N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 28.2N  82.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 30.8N  76.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[GaWx]

0Z Icon: 3rd run in a row (back to 12Z) Port Charlotte, which is nearly 100 miles S of NHC.

[bdgwx]

While most of the hurricane models were bold with their intensity at 18Z one notable exception is COAMPS which peaks at only 65 kts. Because publicly accessible data is so hard to find that isn't delayed I can only speculate on the cause. I noticed its track takes a deeper dive toward the Yucatan not unlike the ECMWF and ICON. Notice that the ECMWF and ICON are more bullish with the development of the minor tropical disturbance on the eastern side of the GOM even establishing and maintaining a closed surface low as it tracks over FL ahead of Milton's approach. This causes a slight Fujiwhara bend in Milton's track. It's possible COAMPS sides more with the ECMWF/ICON in this regard and as result may be mitigating intensification somewhat. Anyway, the point is that not all hurricane models in the IVCN suite are bullish on Milton's intensity.

Edit: Slight wording change for clarity.

[jburns]

4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

While most of the hurricane models were bold with their intensity at 18Z one notable exception is COAMPS which peaks at only 65 kts. Because publicly accessible data is so hard to find that isn't delayed I can only speculate on the cause. I noticed its track takes a deeper dive toward the Yucatan not unlike the ECMWF and ICON. Notice that the ECMWF and ICON are more bullish with the tropical disturbance on eastern side of the GOM in regards to its maintenance of a closed low. This causes a slight Fujiwhara bend in Milton's track. It's possible COAMPS sides more with the ECMWF/ICON in this regard and as result may be mitigating intensification somewhat. Anyway, the point is that not all hurricane models in the IVCN suite are bullish on Milton's intensity.

The models are never in total agreement on just about anything. People living in vulnerable areas should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[nycwinter]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Icon: 3rd run in a row (back to 12Z) Port Charlotte, which is nearly 100 miles S of NHC.

icon and ecmwf were to high with helene intensity compared to the gfs

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

icon and ecmwf were to high with helene intensity compared to the gfs

Too high as in too high with central pressure? The GFS and Euro were about in lock step inside 48h with a landfall pressure in the 950s. But globals are almost always higher for strong hurricanes than reality. 

Aside from that, I think what’s telling here is that the GFS went from very weak to in line with the more aggressive Euro and its ensembles. 

[MJO812]

[TPAwx]

Local WFLA met very direct tonight.  Clear layout of the threats and 10-15 foot surge potential.

[WxWatcher007]

Want to keep highlighting the rainfall threat further inland. Someone away from the center track is likely to have significant issues with freshwater flooding.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET (use for track only): sticking with its far S track (keeps reminding me of its furthest S progs for Ian) with landfall still near or a little N of Naples; it did initialize at 0Z ~20 miles S of actual position fwiw:

TROPICAL STORM MILTON     ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  95.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 06.10.2024    0  22.5N  95.6W     1007            25
    1200UTC 06.10.2024   12  22.8N  94.0W     1005            26
    0000UTC 07.10.2024   24  22.2N  92.9W     1003            29
    1200UTC 07.10.2024   36  22.2N  91.1W     1001            32
    0000UTC 08.10.2024   48  22.5N  89.1W      998            30
    1200UTC 08.10.2024   60  23.7N  86.7W      994            33
    0000UTC 09.10.2024   72  24.7N  84.8W      993            38
    1200UTC 09.10.2024   84  25.7N  82.3W      996            38
    0000UTC 10.10.2024   96  28.8N  78.5W      994            48
    1200UTC 10.10.2024  108  31.1N  73.9W      997            54
    0000UTC 11.10.2024  120  33.5N  65.4W      996            48
    1200UTC 11.10.2024  132  39.5N  54.4W      987            45
    0000UTC 12.10.2024  144  47.6N  45.6W      972            46
    1200UTC 12.10.2024  156              POST-TROPICAL

 

[GaWx]

0Z CMC: still slower than others but sped up some to Thu night instead of Fri; back S some to Ft Myers from Port Charlotte at 12Z

So, at 0Z, 3 of 5 (UK/Icon/CMC) most followed globals are significantly S of NHC

[NeonPeon]

Fascinating watching this really get its act together. Helene was this big beast whose birth was this problematic asymmetrical chaos that was only exacerbated by dry air leading to all sorts of growing pains. Complicated adolescence and then unfortunately a real late bloomer. 

This thing is just in perfect conditions, small, and oddly consistent in convection close to the center, before it completely had one. In terms of structure it's always been precocious. 

[snowmaker13]

3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Fascinating watching this really get its act together. Helene was this big beast whose birth was this problematic asymmetrical chaos that was only exacerbated by dry air leading to all sorts of growing pains. Complicated adolescence and then unfortunately a real late bloomer. 

This thing is just in perfect conditions, small, and oddly consistent in convection close to the center, before it completely had one. In terms of structure it's always been precocious. 

How's it getting it's act together? It looks like poo on IR currently.

[jrips27]

Definitely looks ahead of schedule

[BYG Jacob]

5 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

How's it getting it's act together? It looks like poo on IR currently.

[WxWatcher007]

That kind of structure tends to foreshadow more significant to rapid intensification, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. You do still need deep convection over the center and wrapping around to build a true inner core. It’s not a linear process, and as we see time and again the organizational phase often happens in fits and starts.

Recon tomorrow will give us a much better sense of how organized it is and critically, more detail on the environment around the system.

Night, everyone.

[RU848789]

IMO, people on the central Florida Gulf coast (and even inland a ways from there) should be seriously considering evacuating or at least have a plan to evacuate once Milton's track is nailed down better in the next day or two, given that the center of the forecast track brings a 115-120 mph hurricane directly over Tampa on Wednesday late afternoon/early evening (although the track cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island, so a Tampa landfall is not a given, but preparing for a pretty credible worst case is not a bad thing to do). If we have a major hurricane hitting Tampa, the impacts are likely to be substantial to catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of people.

 

For people unaware of Tampa's history with hurricanes, Tampa hasn’t seen a direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921 (and only one other time in recorded history in 1848), when the population was tiny, but for those storms the damage was catastrophic from both the winds and the storm surge. Even Helene, which missed Tampa by ~100 miles (at its closest) still caused the worst storm surge (~7 ft) since the 1921 hurricane, which had ~10’ of surge and the 1841 storm, which was likely a tad weaker than Helene, had an estimated 15’ of surge; and even a glancing blow from Helene killed 11 people in Tampa. 10-15 feet or more of surge and Cat 3 winds are almost unimaginable for modern day Tampa Metro, which now has 3.2MM people vs. ~100K in 1921 and a few thousand in 1848. Tampa's hurricane history is detailed in the link below.  And if the forecast storm track and intensity verify, Milton would pass near or over Orlando, too, as a Cat 1/2 hurricane.  Talk about a horrific track for Florida.

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/.../hur.../article293362924.html

[TPAwx]

Obligatory sub 900 HFAS-B run.

887 lol

 

 

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Obligatory sub 900 HFAS-B run.

887 lol

 

 

I don't remember the last time a hurricane model had an Atlantic storm modeled that low. This is some 3k nam stuff.

[Amped]

167.5kt seems legit .  200mph=174kt

[TPAwx]

The A version bottomed at 910, HMON prob a few mb close.  Seems like a signal. 
 

 

 

 

 

to GTFO of dodge.