hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Elaborate in what you’re saying here. If a 940 is 100 miles offshore and weakens but hits Clearwater, tampas taking 8-10 ft of surge. I'm simply referring to the structural change that leads to much of the precip shifting to the northern half of the circulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: HWRF directly into Tampa at 933mb I’m mobile, can you post an image? Want to share with family; down in Sarasota atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I’m mobile, can you post an image? Want to share with family; down in Sarasota atm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I don’t think many people from outside the area here fully appreciate the situation we find ourselves in here around the shore areas of Tampa Bay there’s literally piles ten feet high of debris , discarded furniture, appliances and miscellaneous crap up and down the coast for miles and miles. I doubt much of it will be picked up by the time the rains hit. Any surge or even just heavy rains in this area will push that stuff into houses and cars and create tremendous hazards for anyone caught in the flood path. if we get cane strength winds ahead of the flooding then all those items will also go flying. I mean you couldn’t script a more damaging scenario if you tried. i also failed to mention how all that crap by the side of the roads will certainly clog up our storm drains in short order. A mild surge can then turn into a major flood even in areas that don’t normally flood. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We went to my wifes dads house in St Pete this week to just help clean things up and move what we could salvage and move it into storage inland,he has Parkinsons disease and cant do to much on his own,his house was under 4-feet of water,thats someones boat in his swimming pool,its still there no one has claimed it as of yet 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Any possibility this thing goes south of where the models have it now? Ideally, south of Florida altogether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 How much did Helene unwell the waters in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Any possibility this thing goes south of where the models have it now? Ideally, south of Florida altogether? It’s hard to miss that much on a system @ 4-4.5 day leads that has a well defined COC which this has developed fairly quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Just now, TriPol said: How much did Helene unwell the waters in the Gulf? The central and northern gulf, not as much given the accelerated pace once it got north of keys latitude. It was large, so maybe that helps a bit. Any mets care to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Any possibility this thing goes south of where the models have it now? Ideally, south of Florida altogether? Model agreement seems to be converging We could hope for some dry air front or some other system to disrupt Milton somewhat but each hour makes a miss less likely. I believe mets will tell you yes there is always a possibility with nearly 3 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I still like a south of Tampa solution. I think it’s going to get too far east before turning NE. If I were to make a call just north of fort meters at cat3-4 intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 18Z SHIPS modestly favors rapid intensification. It only peaks Milton at 80 kts though, which given latest dynamical guidance, should probably be viewed as closer to the lower bound. * GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MILTON AL142024 10/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 72 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 63 73 76 78 80 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 59 69 76 80 80 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 10 8 16 15 20 19 31 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 0 1 -1 4 5 9 2 SHEAR DIR 225 243 246 244 233 229 243 244 242 241 235 SST (C) 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 169 169 170 171 172 172 170 171 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 73 71 67 63 56 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 13 15 18 24 26 29 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 56 43 30 31 39 57 62 54 135 133 124 200 MB DIV 48 30 25 8 12 26 31 31 40 56 61 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -1 4 7 LAND (KM) 214 250 271 322 373 343 285 291 409 234 0 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 24.1 25.3 26.6 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.6 94.1 92.8 91.2 89.2 86.9 84.8 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 7 9 11 12 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 52 51 50 48 46 44 61 28 24 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 41.2% 25.9% 10.2% 7.0% 15.7% 16.8% 23.3% Logistic: 13.3% 46.9% 34.4% 10.9% 4.7% 13.6% 8.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 7.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% Consensus: 7.1% 32.0% 21.1% 7.5% 4.1% 10.0% 8.8% 9.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 21.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 17.0% 39.0% SDCON: 5.0% 26.5% 14.0% 5.2% 2.5% 6.5% 12.9% 24.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Is this the most frightening model image seen in a long time? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 2 minutes ago, Normandy said: I still like a south of Tampa solution. I think it’s going to get too far east before turning NE. If I were to make a call just north of fort meters at cat3-4 intensity My initial thought is probably Sarasota to Venice at c3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The central and northern gulf, not as much given the accelerated pace once it got north of keys latitude. It was large, so maybe that helps a bit. Any mets care to chime in? It’s a factor, but not a big one as it’s going to pass over the loop current which continually refreshes new warm water. It’s one of the biggest OHC (ocean heat content) in the world. Think Katrina and Rita. It could certainly weaken slightly after moving into the shelf waters, but surge wise to little to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Is this the most frightening model image seen in a long time? Yes, it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 10 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Is this the most frightening model image seen in a long time? Given it affects the largest population center in Western Florida, it most certainly is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Storm surge alone is gonna be brutal once again into Tampa Bay seemingly right now,they surely don't need to get hit again right now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 To the upwelling question—there’s still plenty of warm water at along the path. Just as important, there’s depth to support a significant hurricane. Milton is likely to cross the Loop Current. A further south track could take it across that cooler spot, but that seems unlikely at this time. 25 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Is this the most frightening model image seen in a long time? Just want to note for those lurking without much experience tracking tropical—those are 850mb winds, and would almost certainly not reach the surface, though those kind of winds aloft suggest significant (but again weaker) winds are possible at the surface. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 34 minutes ago, TriPol said: How much did Helene unwell the waters in the Gulf? Not much water temps 86-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 No upwelling from Helene, SSTs and OHC still holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Very concerning that Regional Hurricane Models slow Milton down over the Gulf Loop Current. Rapid to Explosive Intensification happens as Milton begins to interact with the loop current. Just not a great track to see heading into SW FL highest population center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Really very not great... 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 9 minutes ago, andyhb said: Really very not great... Wow certainly not. Hyperbole is overused these days but this setup continues to progress towards worst case for TB/Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties most specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: Really very not great... Tampa has, for the most part, avoided the worst case scenario and worst impacts of storms for years. This one is looking ominous and the track is pretty unique too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: Really very not great... Track scenarios are split: north of Tampa Bay or right over Ft. Myers. Both tracks would be devastating with catastrophic storm surge. Saving grace would be an eyewall replacement cycle but in actual reality that wouldn’t help much. Environment supports Milton landfalling at peak intensity. To complicate matters, the critical angle of approach to compound the storm surge threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Okay...time to get to work. Wow. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 14 minutes ago, andyhb said: Really very not great... You just have to hope it comes in south of tampa. It will be very lopsided to the south and east so if you keep the major winds south of tampa you spare the most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Does the angle of this storm put Tampa in more danger than the way Ian came towards the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 19 minutes ago, andyhb said: Really very not great... Much tighter landfall envelope and the intensity trend has been particularly noteworthy. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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