GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Just now, BoulderWX said: Question - from the angle the storm will be coming, would it be worse for Tampa (surge wise) for the storm to track north of the metro or south? TIA N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, GaWx said: N Appreciate the response. Another poster echoed that as well right before I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Here we go again. Hope it doesn’t hit at high tide. Would be devastating for Tampa Bay if the GFS verified. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 A stronger, larger storm will try to go more poleward. I do think Tampa could be in trouble but it'll be a close call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 HWRF is worst case surge scenario for Tampa bay 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I'm normally the first one to come on here and joke about Tampa getting coned and avoiding storms but I don't know if we can avoid this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: HWRF is worst case surge scenario for Tampa bay Do you happen to have an image or better yet a link I can bookmark. Know where to find all the globals but not sure best sites for hurricane models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I use Tropical Tidbits for the hurricane models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 This went from a nothing burger to downright ominous at a rapid pace. Should note that even without a Tampa worst case surge event, Sarasota and Fort Myers aren't really well positioned to weather a big event either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Property on Lido Key, St Armands, and Siesta key heavily damaged from Helene. All sand on Lido Beach pushed into bldgs and Sarasota Bay. Wide open for storm surge…horror show if materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 NHC has now upgraded this to Milton based on satellite data. 723 WTNT64 KNHC 051725 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 ugh the HAFS-B model has this just west of the Tampa area with SLP in the mid-920s on its 12Z run as of early morning Wed. 10/9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 HAFS-B with a 944mb landfall just south of Homosassa Springs. Not a good track for the Tampa Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 12Z Euro: a bit stronger (970s) and furthest N of all Euro runs so far with it just N of Tampa Wed evening (near GFS)(a bit slower than 0Z’s Pt Charlotte) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 wow already a TS....Milton gonna be a problem no matter where he hits at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I guess the good news with those HMON/HAFS tracks is the population is way lower where they bring the storm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I’m really surprised the aren’t moving up recon. Waiting until tomorrow feels like a mistake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro: a bit stronger (970s) and furthest N of all Euro runs so far with it just N of Tampa Wed evening (near GFS)(a bit slower than 0Z’s Pt Charlotte) Quite a bit stronger but it did have last second weakening. At that point though the surge is already set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 It looks like another storm with a precursor event. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 34 minutes ago, bairn said: Property on Lido Key, St Armands, and Siesta key heavily damaged from Helene. All sand on Lido Beach pushed into bldgs and Sarasota Bay. Wide open for storm surge…horror show if materializes. Exactly. With normal barriers (dunes, walls) gone, there’s nothing to stop the surge. This could be another generational event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC FriGFS/Euro just N of TampaIcon/CMC Pt CharlotteUK between Ft Myers and Naples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Exactly. With normal barriers (dunes, walls) gone, there’s nothing to stop the surge. This could be another generational event. I think this is our new normal at this point. Houses will have to be way back from the coast and built like bunkers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Milton was not supposed to form this quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 All models show the south half of Milton clearing out as it approaches Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC FriGFS/Euro just N of TampaIcon/CMC Pt CharlotteUK between Ft Myers and Naples Those globals being close to agreement on track and intensity give cause for pause, particularly since the GFS was the least robust of the guidance not that long ago. It’s important for folks here to remember that this is going to be a multi-hazard event. Not only are wind and surge becoming increasingly significant hazards, the rainfall continues to look like a major issue for some part of the peninsula. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I guess the good news with those HMON/HAFS tracks is the population is way lower where they bring the storm in Like with Helene the flooding/surge will be the story. Shouldn't be as large a storm so impacts will be over a smaller region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 The pre could certainly complicate evacuation scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: All models show the south half of Milton clearing out as it approaches Florida. Elaborate in what you’re saying here. If a 940 is 100 miles offshore and weakens but hits Clearwater, tampas taking 8-10 ft of surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: All models show the south half of Milton clearing out as it approaches Florida. The only thing it’s going to clear out are the people living there that will be evacuating. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 HWRF directly into Tampa at 933mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now