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Major Hurricane Milton


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Just now, BoulderWX said:

Question - from the angle the storm will be coming, would it be worse for Tampa (surge wise) for the storm to track north of the metro or south? TIA

N

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

HWRF is worst case surge scenario for Tampa bay

Do you happen to have an image or better yet a link I can bookmark. Know where to find all the globals but not sure best sites for hurricane models. 

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Property on Lido Key, St Armands, and Siesta key heavily damaged from Helene. All sand on Lido Beach pushed into bldgs and Sarasota Bay. Wide open for storm surge…horror show if materializes.

 

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NHC has now upgraded this to Milton based on satellite data.

723 
WTNT64 KNHC 051725
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING 
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has 
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton.  The maximum sustained 
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly
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5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: a bit stronger (970s) and furthest N of all Euro runs so far with it just N of Tampa Wed evening (near GFS)(a bit slower than 0Z’s Pt Charlotte)

Quite a bit stronger but it did have last second weakening. At that point though the surge is already set. 

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It looks like another storm with a precursor event. :(

3.  Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday 
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall 
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday 
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, 
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river 
flooding.
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34 minutes ago, bairn said:

Property on Lido Key, St Armands, and Siesta key heavily damaged from Helene. All sand on Lido Beach pushed into bldgs and Sarasota Bay. Wide open for storm surge…horror show if materializes.

 

Exactly. With normal barriers (dunes, walls) gone, there’s nothing to stop the surge. This could be another generational event. 

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Exactly. With normal barriers (dunes, walls) gone, there’s nothing to stop the surge. This could be another generational event. 

I think this is our new normal at this point. Houses will have to be way back from the coast and built like bunkers.
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9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Summary of 5 at 12Z: all Wed except CMC Fri

GFS/Euro just N of Tampa
Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte
UK between Ft Myers and Naples

Those globals being close to agreement on track and intensity give cause for pause, particularly since the GFS was the least robust of the guidance not that long ago.

It’s important for folks here to remember that this is going to be a multi-hazard event. Not only are wind and surge becoming increasingly significant hazards, the rainfall continues to look like a major issue for some part of the peninsula. 

BP6oCWM.png

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13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I guess the good news with those HMON/HAFS tracks is the population is way lower where they bring the storm in

Like with Helene the flooding/surge will be the story. 

Shouldn't be as large a storm so impacts will be over a smaller region. 

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